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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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1234 · Jul 201819922001200920172026
48 results for Winter Storm Uri

Study examines equity in post-Snow Uri recovery, finds disparities.

problem Disproportionate impacts on vulnerable populations during recovery.
method County and census tract level data analysis, satellite imagery, statistical procedures.
result Negative associations between non-Hispanic whites and outages, positive associations with certain demographic variables.

Winterization of Texas power system profitable but risky, estimated at $11.74bn over 30 years.

problem Profitability and risk of winterizing Texas power system infrastructure.
method Combined temperature-dependent load and outage estimates over 71 years of climate data.
result Large-scale winterization of gas infrastructure and power plants is profitable, but risks are high due to low-frequency of cold spells.

Improved neural network predicts tropical storm trajectories and Bayesian intervals.

problem Accurately predicting the trajectories of tropical storms to prevent damage.
method Developed an improved RNN model with dropout to predict Bayesian intervals.
result Neural network dropout values significantly affect prediction accuracy and intervals.

Graph Attention Networks predict power outage durations from natural disasters.

problem Accurately predicting power outage durations from geospatial and weather data.
method Graph Attention Networks (GAT) for semi-supervised learning.
result GAT model outperforms existing methods by 2% - 15% in accuracy.

Advanced forecasting models outperform Holt-Winters and ARIMA for stock market data.

problem Forecasting stock market data with improved accuracy.
method Developed 24 two-parameter families of forecasting functions using a nonparametric approach.
result Our models outperform Holt-Winters and ARIMA in terms of lower sum of absolute errors and higher number of accurate forecasts.

New framework predicts crypto volatility, outperforming traditional models.

problem Forecasting volatility in cryptocurrencies during the crypto-winter.
method Combines LSTM and rough volatility models, using a parsimonious parametric model.
result Similar prediction performances with fewer parameters, suggesting universality of volatility mechanisms.

ST-STORM separates semantic and appearance features for robust representation learning.

problem Traditional SSL methods fail to capture appearance cues in critical applications.
method Hybrid SSL framework with two latent streams, Content and Style, disentangled through gating mechanisms.
result The Style branch effectively isolates complex appearance phenomena without degrading semantic performance.

This is a survey of recent contributions to the area of special Kaehler geometry. It is based on lectures given at the 21st Winter School on Geometry and Physics held in Srni in January 2001.

2001-12-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Score matching method improves density estimation for truncated data on manifolds.

problem Density estimation for truncated data on manifolds with intractable normalising constant.
method Truncated score matching extended to Riemannian manifolds with boundary.
result Score matching estimator approximates true parameter values with low error.

Frame flows on certain symmetric spaces mix exponentially.

problem Exponential mixing of frame flows in convex cocompact locally symmetric spaces.
method Generalized local non-integrability and non-concentration properties to apply Dolgopyat's method.
result Exponential mixing of frame flows proved for convex cocompact locally symmetric spaces.

FCNv2 robustness tested under noise and random initial conditions.

problem Assessing AI weather forecasting model robustness to input noise.
method Two experiments with varying noise levels and random initial conditions.
result FCNv2 preserves hurricane features under low to moderate noise, but underestimates intensity and persistence.

Improved sample complexity for actor-critic algorithms in MDPs.

problem Achieving optimal policies with limited data in reinforcement learning.
method Single-timescale actor-critic with STORM (STOchastic Recursive Momentum) and a sample buffer.
result Optimal sample complexity of O(ε2)O(ε^{-2}) for εε-optimal policies.

These notes are based on a lecture course given by the first author in the Sedano Winter School on K-theory held in Sedano, Spain, on January 22-27th of 2007. They aim at introducing K-theory of C^*-algebras, equivariant K-homology and KK-theory in the context of the Baum-Connes conjecture.

2009-08-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Variance reduction has emerged in recent years as a strong competitor to stochastic gradient descent in non-convex problems, providing the first algorithms to improve upon the converge rate of stochastic gradient descent for finding first-order critical points. However, variance reduction techniques typically require c…

2019-05-24abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper is a follow-up to our joint paper with I. Agol, P. Storm and K. Whyte "Finiteness of arithmetic hyperbolic reflection groups". The main purpose is to investigate the effective side of the method developed there and its possible application to the problem of classification of arithmetic hyperbolic reflection …

2010-08-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Study character varieties of a Coxeter group in hyperbolic and Anti-de Sitter spaces.

problem Characterize the geometric transitions of a Coxeter group's holonomy representations.
method Analysis of rigidity properties and character varieties in hyperbolic and Anti-de Sitter spaces.
result Description of singularity at the collapse of a right-angled cuboctahedron.

These lecture notes are based on a mini-course given by the author at the sixth KAWA Winter School on March 23-26, 2015 at the Centro De Giorgi of Scuola Normale Superiore in Pisa. They provide an introduction to the study of the Kahler-Ricci flow on compact Kahler manifolds, and a detailed exposition of some recent de…

2015-08-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Novel approach uses ENN for UQ in gust predictions, reducing RMSE and improving confidence.

problem Reducing bias and uncertainty in wind gust predictions.
method Evidential Neural Network (ENN) with Explainable AI.
result 47% reduction in RMSE, 95% coverage of observed gusts at 179 out of 266 stations.

Notions of Darwinian selection have been implicit in economic theory for at least sixty years. Richard Nelson and Sidney Winter have argued that while evolutionary thinking was prevalent in prewar economics, the postwar Neoclassical school became almost entirely preoccupied with equilibrium conditions and their mathema…

2007-07-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Study improves precipitation predictions for High Mountain Asia using machine learning.

problem Uncertainty in future precipitation over High Mountain Asia due to regional climate model biases.
method Probabilistic machine learning framework combining 13 regional climate models via a mixture of experts.
result 32% improvement over equally-weighted average and 254% improvement over single ensemble member.

These are the lecture notes from the 26th Winter School "Geometry and Physics", Czech Republic, Srni, January 14 - 21, 2006. These lectures are an introduction into the realm of generalized geometry based on the tangent plus the cotangent bundle. In particular we discuss the relation of this geometry to physics, namely…

2006-05-15abs ↗pdf ↗

We prove that for any closed surface of genus at least four, and any punctured surface of genus at least two, the space of ending laminations is connected. A theorem of E. Klarreich implies that this space is homeomorphic to the Gromov boundary of the complex of curves. It follows that the boundary of the complex of cu…

2008-01-20abs ↗pdf ↗

The Hessian of the renormalized volume of geometrically finite hyperbolic 33-manifolds without rank-11 cusps, computed at the hyperbolic metric gg with totally geodesic boundary of the convex core, is shown to be a strictly positive bilinear form on the tangent space to Teichmüller space. The metric gg is known fro…

2015-03-27abs ↗pdf ↗

This manuscript served as lecture notes for a mini-course in the 2016 Southern California Geometric Analysis Seminar Winter School. The goal is to give a quick introduction to Kahler geometry by describing the recent resolution of Tian's three influential properness conjectures in joint work with T. Darvas. These resul…

2018-07-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Predicting flood for any location at times of extreme storms is a longstanding problem that has utmost importance in emergency management. Conventional methods that aim to predict water levels in streams use advanced hydrological models still lack of giving accurate forecasts everywhere. This study aims to explore arti…

2019-02-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Notes on Whitney towers in 4-manifolds, focusing on local surface manipulations and invariants.

problem Classifying and understanding Whitney towers in 4-manifolds.
method Local manipulations of surfaces, definitions of Whitney towers and trees, geometric Jacobi identities, classification of twisted Whitney towers.
result Classification of order n twisted Whitney towers in the 4-ball and related invariants.