The paper optimizes predicting future window states in buildings using past climate data.
problem Predicting future window opening actions based on past climate data.
method Trained a deep neural network to predict window states using indoor climate data sequences of 30-240 time-steps.
result Optimal predictive performance achieved with 60 time-steps of indoor climate data, and long sequences could be addressed efficiently.
Algorithm minimizes control regret for non-stationary LQR systems.
problem Control of non-stationary LQR systems with unknown dynamics.
method Adaptive non-stationarity detection and OLS estimator with small bias.
result Achieves optimal dynamic regret of $ ilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(V_T^{2/5}T^{3/5}
ight)$.
Improved driver identification accuracy using steering wheel data.
problem Accurately identifying drivers based on naturalistic driving behavior.
method Novel approach for window length parameter design, leveraging GRUs neural network.
result Increased driver identification accuracy from under 15% to over 65%.
We propose the method to sanitize the privacy of the IFM(Input Feature Map)s that are fed into the layers of CNN(Convolutional Neural Network)s. The method introduces the degree of the sanitization that makes the application using a CNN be able to control the privacy loss represented as the ratio of the probabilistic a…
Quantum kernels show no advantage in stock return prediction, but differ in stability metrics.
problem Determining if quantum kernels improve stock return prediction.
method Controlled horse race on Chinese A-share market with identical training subsamples and tuning budgets.
result Quantum kernels do not outperform classical RBF controls in cross-sectional stock return prediction.
Optimal control of reserve assets for stablecoins to maintain peg stability.
problem Balancing immediate liquidity and yield on reserve assets for stablecoin peg maintenance.
method Developed a stochastic model predictive control framework with moment closure for event intensities, incorporating a soft-thresholding structure for rebalancing.
result Optimal policy shifts predictably toward cash as expected outflows intensify or windows lengthen, preserving most bill carry in calm markets and quickly building cash during stress.
New study on time series anomaly detection shows overlapping inference improves performance.
problem Heterogeneous evaluation practices and inference procedures in time series anomaly detection.
method Unified training, tuning, and evaluation protocol on TSB-AD benchmark, analyzing overlapping vs. disjoint inference.
result Overlapping inference yields consistent improvements, with average relative gain up to +28%.
Optimal weight windows are symmetric rectangles centered at peak.
problem Finding the best weight windows for weighted least squares.
method Investigated symmetric and tapered rectangle window weights, showing the best rectangle window is optimal.
result The best rectangle window is optimal for all tapered rectangle window definitions.
The paper introduces a diagnostic method to detect grokking transitions in models before test accuracy improves.
problem Detecting the transition from training to generalization in machine learning models.
method Summarize task-dependent observables as empirical distributions, map them to Wasserstein/quantile coordinates, and analyze using Hankel dynamic mode decomposition.
result The diagnostic method achieves AUROC \(\approx\) 0.93 for grokking-vs-non-grokking discrimination at the run level.
The paper monitors stock market relationships using network analysis and statistical control charts.
problem Detecting abnormal changes in the financial market network structure.
method Network construction using distance methods, hierarchical clustering, and Shewhart control charts.
result Abnormal changes in financial market relationships can be detected using statistical process control.
Develops a new trading strategy for renewable producers to manage price volatility.
problem Price volatility and imbalance risk in power markets due to renewable generation.
method Data-driven continuous-time stochastic optimal control framework using SDEs and diffusion models.
result Trading strategy outperforms benchmarks and reduces profit and loss.
Differentiable Window improves attention modules by enabling more focused attentions.
problem Improving attention mechanisms in neural networks.
method Proposes Differentiable Window, a neural module for dynamic window selection.
result Consistent and sizable improvements across various NLP tasks.
GNMR controls runtime stability in low-precision language model training.
problem Efficient low-precision training faces numerical risks at specific operators.
method GNMR compares gradient norms to historical means, applying bounded recovery actions.
result GNMR preserves high-fidelity quality with sparse, budgeted recovery.
There has been renewed recent interest in developing effective lower bounds for Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance between time series. These have many applications in time series indexing, clustering, forecasting, regression and classification. One of the key time series classification algorithms, the nearest neighbo…
Novel CTG analysis splits signals into balanced windows and uses 1DCNN for automatic feature extraction.
problem Inter- and intra-variability in CTG interpretation, low positive predictive value.
method Split CTG time-series into balanced windows, extract features using 1DCNN and MLP ensemble.
result Normalizes class distributions, reduces reliance on manual feature selection.
FinReflectKG benchmarks financial QA by linking relevant context from a financial KG, improving model performance and efficiency.
problem Efficiently retrieving and navigating relevant financial information across diverse sources and years.
method A benchmark built on a temporally indexed financial KG, generating QA pairs via pattern-specific prompts and quality control, evaluating retrieval scenarios.
result KG-guided retrieval yields substantial gains in correctness and token utilization, improving model performance by 24%.
BAWS adapts window size for financial risk forecasting.
problem Adaptive selection of look-back window for financial risk modeling.
method Data-driven online learning method using bootstrap-based adaptive window selection (BAWS).
result BAWS improves risk forecasting, especially in data with structural changes.
Optimal weight windows are found by projecting the origin onto a convex polytope.
problem Finding the best weight windows for a weighted moving average smoother.
method Formulated as a quadratic program and projection onto a convex polytope.
result Optimal weight windows are symmetrical and decrease in weight away from the center.
New method controls false discoveries in online testing with deadlines.
problem Controlling false discoveries in online hypothesis testing with decision deadlines.
method Benjamini-Hochberg-type procedure over a moving window of hypotheses with adaptive threshold parameters.
result Controls false discovery rate at every stage and adaptively chosen stopping times.
Five simple soft sensor methodologies with two update conditions were compared on two experimentally-obtained datasets and one simulated dataset. The soft sensors investigated were moving window partial least squares regression (and a recursive variant), moving window random forest regression, the mean moving window of…
Unified framework combines views and optimization for better portfolio management.
problem Optimizing portfolio weights with dynamic adjustment based on volatility.
method Dynamic sliding window adjusting horizon, factor estimates, BL posterior returns, and weights over time.
result Outperforms dynamic mean-variance optimization without BL views, providing stronger downside risk control.
Paper proposes efficient AUC estimation in sliding windows.
problem Efficiently monitoring AUC in large sliding windows over data streams.
method Algorithm groups data points to estimate AUC with O((logk)/ε) time per update. result Achieves significant speed-up over exact computation with modest accuracy loss.
TPA-AD detects axle-box bearing anomalies using pseudo anomalies near normal boundaries.
problem Detecting axle-box bearing anomalies with only normal training data.
method Two-stage approach: pseudo anomalies, contrastive learning, KNN.
result Improves anomaly detection separability and sensitivity to degradation.
Paper introduces a differentiable STFT for continuous window length optimization.
problem Optimizing window length in spectrograms for neural networks.
method Defines a differentiable short-time Fourier transform with continuous window length.
result Demonstrates improved performance in estimation and classification tasks.
Novel time series forecasting method using sliding window signatures.
problem Challenges in forecasting nonlinear and delayed time series data.
method Ridge regression with signature features calculated on sliding windows.
result Signature features effectively encode temporal and nonlinear dependencies, leading to accurate forecasts.
Auto-regressive models improve smoothing efficiency with exponentially tapered windows.
problem Improving time-series smoothing efficiency.
method An auto-regressive formulation for time-series smoothing.
result Auto-regressive models result in moving means with exponentially tapered windows.
Proposes a sliding window method for better portfolio trading.
problem Log-optimal portfolio problem with time-varying weights.
method Data-driven sliding window approach to solve log-optimal portfolio problem.
result Trading strategy outperforms classical log-optimal portfolio in cumulative returns.
We present a new algorithm for the 2D Sliding Window Discrete Fourier Transform (SWDFT). Our algorithm avoids repeating calculations in overlapping windows by storing them in a tree data-structure based on the ideas of the Cooley- Tukey Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). For an N0×N1 array and n0×n1 wi…
Study shows pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts crypto futures liquidity better than event labels.
problem Understanding how crypto futures liquidity changes over time.
method Combining L2 order book data, trade-flow records, and macro-event windows to define discrete liquidity-state transitions and evaluate models.
result Pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts post-event liquidity regimes better than event labels, and order flow adds value only when layered on top of the state model.
Improved convergence of fixed-point methods using windowed Anderson acceleration.
problem Improving convergence of fixed-point methods for symmetric operators.
method Windowed Anderson acceleration for symmetric fixed-point iterations.
result Windowed Anderson acceleration improves convergence over standard fixed-point methods.
Improved Granger causality method for dynamic time series data.
problem Traditional Granger causality method assumes constant causalities, failing to model dynamic causalities.
method Dynamic window-level Granger causality (DWGC) method with causality indexing.
result Improved DWGC method better detects window-level causalities.
WeldNet reduces complex dynamics to simpler, manageable segments.
problem Complex, high-dimensional time-dependent datasets from physical processes are costly to simulate.
method Windowed Encoders for Learning Dynamics, splitting time domain into windows for nonlinear dimension reduction and propagator training.
result WeldNet captures nonlinear latent structures and dynamics, outperforming existing methods.
New fast estimation methods stemming from control theory lead to a fresh look at time series, which bears some resemblance to "technical analysis". The results are applied to a typical object of financial engineering, namely the forecast of foreign exchange rates, via a "model-free" setting, i.e., via repeated identifi…
New method recalibrates VaR for option books, reducing forecast errors.
problem Inaccurate VaR forecasts due to missing operational choices.
method Marking-aware sequential VaR recalibration targeting normalized book-level loss.
result Sequential VaR recalibration improves VaR performance across different markets and options.
Study predicts cryptocurrency trends using LSTM model.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency price trends.
method Combination of window-sliding and prediction range method with LSTM model.
result Established model for cryptocurrency price trend prediction.
Optimizes sliding window approach for tracking Gaussian densities.
problem Improving tracking performance of Gaussian density estimation.
method Theoretical analysis of sliding window Gaussian Kernel Density Estimators.
result Empirical evidence shows improved tracking performance with optimal weight sequence.
BWS selects best window subsets for efficient data pruning.
problem Challenges in selecting subsets of large datasets for neural network training.
method Best Window Selection (BWS) by choosing optimal window intervals from ordered sample scores.
result BWS outperforms other methods across various selection ratios and datasets.
Subject Cross Validation improves Human Activity Recognition performance by up to 16%.
problem Overestimation of Human Activity Recognition performance using k-fold cross validation.
method Investigated Subject Cross Validation vs. k-fold cross validation for Human Activity Recognition.
result Subject Cross Validation increases performance by up to 16%.
Occupant behavior (OB) and in particular window openings need to be considered in building performance simulation (BPS), in order to realistically model the indoor climate and energy consumption for heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC). However, the proposed OB window opening models are often biased towards …
We continue to develop our neural network (NN) based forecasting approach to anomaly detection (AD) using the Secure Water Treatment (SWaT) industrial control system (ICS) testbed dataset. We propose genetic algorithms (GA) to find the best NN architecture for a given dataset, using the NAB metric to assess the quality…
We identify 'critical windows' in diffusion models where specific features emerge, providing a theoretical framework.
problem Understanding narrow time intervals in diffusion models where specific features emerge.
method Developed a formal framework to study these critical windows, showing provable bounds for certain data types.
result Proved that critical windows can be bounded in terms of measures of separation for data from mixtures of log-concave densities.
We study the dynamics of the linear and non-linear serial dependencies in financial time series in a rolling window framework. In particular, we focus on the detection of episodes of statistically significant two- and three-point correlations in the returns of several leading currency exchange rates that could offer so…
Proposes a method to train classifiers with delayed feedback using a time window.
problem Training classifiers with delayed feedback that can be biased due to delayed user actions.
method Uses a time window to select samples for training, constructs unbiased empirical risk from all samples.
result Improves classifier performance by using all samples with a time window assumption.
Statistical test verifies long-term rating system calibration with overlapping time windows.
problem Verifying supervisory requirements for overlapping time windows in rating systems.
method Analyzes long-run default rate distribution and correlation effects; presents conservative calibration test methods.
result Developed a test for individual and portfolio levels that can handle unknown variance.
CrossAD detects anomalies in time series data by considering cross-scale associations and cross-window modeling.
problem Anomaly detection in time series data is challenging due to varying patterns at different scales and fixed window sizes.
method CrossAD incorporates cross-scale reconstruction and a query library to capture dynamic cross-scale associations and comprehensive context.
result CrossAD achieves state-of-the-art performance in anomaly detection across multiple real-world datasets.
New algorithms achieve optimal regret in sliding window model with limited memory.
problem Experts problem in the sliding window model with limited information.
method 2 queries, polylog(nT) memory, exponential improvement on memory.
result Achieve optimal regret of sqrt(nW)polylog(nT) with 2 queries and polylog(nT) memory.
Proposes AWS method for precise speech enhancement using DNN.
problem T-F resolution problem in fixed-resolution short-time frequency transforms.
method Incorporates trainable adaptive window switching into speech enhancement procedure.
result Achieved higher signal-to-distortion ratio than conventional methods.
Paper proposes SPO paradigm for better portfolio optimization in real markets.
problem Real-world trading frictions and constraints affect portfolio optimization quality.
method SPO paradigm with decision-focused training using surrogate loss and linear predictors.
result Decision-focused training improves risk-adjusted performance and robustness.