We prove that square integrable holomorphic functions (with respect to a plurisubharmonic weight) can be extended in a square integrable manner from certain singular hypersurfaces (which include uniformly flat, normal crossing divisors) to entire functions in affine space. This provides evidence for a conjecture regard…
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48 results for “Weight of Evidence”
The CAP slope is Bayes' theorem in cumulative coordinates, unlocking the weight of evidence, Somers' D, and Gini coefficient.
problem Calibration and weight of evidence
method Identifying the CAP slope as Bayes' theorem
result Revealing the CAP slope as Bayes' theorem
We provide theoretical and empirical evidence that using tighter evidence lower bounds (ELBOs) can be detrimental to the process of learning an inference network by reducing the signal-to-noise ratio of the gradient estimator. Our results call into question common implicit assumptions that tighter ELBOs are better vari…
The standard interpretation of importance-weighted autoencoders is that they maximize a tighter lower bound on the marginal likelihood than the standard evidence lower bound. We give an alternate interpretation of this procedure: that it optimizes the standard variational lower bound, but using a more complex distribut…
Neural networks with learned biases can approximate any function.
problem Whether neural networks with only learned biases can approximate any continuous function.
method Theoretical and numerical analysis of random weights and learned biases in neural networks.
result Feedforward and recurrent neural networks with random weights can approximate any continuous function and dynamical systems.
Bayesian neural networks update beliefs with soft evidence, improving accuracy and calibration.
problem Updating neural network weights with uncertain or soft evidence.
method Developed two algorithms to approximate Jeffrey's rule for updating neural network weights.
result Jeffrey-based methods outperform traditional approaches in accuracy and calibration, especially in noisy data.
Unified framework for measuring concentration in weighted networks considering both weight distributions and network structure.
problem Traditional indices neglect the topology of relationships among network elements.
method Develops a family of topology-aware concentration indices that jointly account for weight distributions and network structure.
result The proposed indices preserve key properties and allow concentration to be evaluated across different dimensions of dependence.
OPAA estimates probability densities using functional analysis.
problem Estimating probability density functions efficiently and accurately.
method OPAA uses a parallelizable algorithm based on functional analysis to estimate probability distributions.
result OPAA provides an efficient method to estimate probability density functions and normalizing weights.
Stochastic Bayesian Neural Network improves scalability and performance.
problem Challenges in calculating posterior distribution in Bayesian Neural Networks.
method Maximizes Evidence Lower Bound using Stochastic Evidence Lower Bound objective function.
result Demonstrates improved performance and scalability over previous algorithms.
Improved classification model for high-cardinality categorical predictors.
problem Handling high-cardinality categorical predictors and non-linear data.
method Data-driven binning of spline functions and shrinkage estimators.
result Improved classification precision with interpretable predictors.
Interpretability is an elusive but highly sought-after characteristic of modern machine learning methods. Recent work has focused on interpretability via , which justify individual model predictions. In this work, we take a step towards reconciling machine explanations with those that humans prod…
We introduce a Bayesian solution for the problem in forensic speaker recognition, where there may be very little background material for estimating score calibration parameters. We work within the Bayesian paradigm of evidence reporting and develop a principled probabilistic treatment of the problem, which results in a…
The Penrose theorem and Hawking's topology theorem are extended to weighted spacetimes.
problem Extending Penrose's singularity theorem and Hawking's topology theorem to weighted spacetimes.
method Using weighted null energy condition and synthetic dimension to generalize the theorems.
result Generalized versions of the Penrose and Hawking theorems hold under a weighted null energy condition.
Bayesian Reasoning for Physics Informed Neural Networksphysics.comp-ph
Bayesian PINNs optimize loss weights for PDEs and data.
problem Optimizing loss weights in physics-informed neural networks.
method Laplace approximation for efficient model evidence computation.
result Unified Bayesian setting for PDEs and noisy measurements.
Efficiently recovers network community structure from clients' small subgraphs.
problem Recovering community structure in federated myopic learning settings.
method Developed an algorithm to compute consensus signed weighted graph from clients' evidence.
result Exact recovery of network structure is possible in polynomial time under certain conditions.
Bayesian neural networks show good correlation between out-of-sample performance and Bayesian evidence.
problem Improving the out-of-sample performance of Bayesian neural networks.
method Numerical sampling of Bayesian posterior, ensembling over architectures, analysis of evidence vs. model size.
result Good correlation between out-of-sample performance and Bayesian evidence; ensembling improves performance.
Expectation Maximization (EM) is among the most popular algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation, but it is generally only guaranteed to find its stationary points of the log-likelihood objective. The goal of this article is to present theoretical and empirical evidence that over-parameterization can help EM avoid …
Reweighting improves risk bounds in certain data regions.
problem Improving risk bounds in classification and heteroscedastic regression.
method Weighted empirical risk minimization with a data-dependent weight function.
result A weighted ERM estimator can achieve superior performance in specific sub-regions.
New algorithm finds unbiased subnetworks in biased datasets.
problem Finding unbiased subnetworks in biased neural networks.
method Debiased Contrastive Weight Pruning (DCWP) algorithm.
result DCWP significantly outperforms state-of-the-art debiasing methods.
Estimation of importance sampling weights for off-policy evaluation of contextual bandits often results in imbalance - a mismatch between the desired and the actual distribution of state-action pairs after weighting. In this work we present balanced off-policy evaluation (B-OPE), a generic method for estimating weights…
The paper analyzes constrained optimal portfolios in high dimensions using novel statistical learning techniques.
problem Forming optimal portfolios with constraints in high-dimensional asset spaces.
method CROWN method integrating factor models with nodewise regression for estimation in large dimensions.
result Demonstrates estimation consistency and convergence rates for constrained portfolio weights, risk, and Sharpe Ratio.
Weight Decay induces low-rank weight matrices in neural networks, improving generalization.
problem Improving generalization in neural networks.
method Training ReLU NN with Weight Decay and Stochastic Gradient Descent.
result The weight matrix of a trained NN is approximately rank-two.
Develops exact and invariant study-based decompositions for network meta-analysis.
problem Lack of exact contribution decompositions in network meta-analysis.
method Contrast-space projection formulation of NMA, study-based definition of direct and indirect evidence.
result Exact covariance-aware decompositions of NMA estimator into direct and indirect contributions.
Martingale Doppelgänger-Eval benchmarks VLMs on candlestick evidence vs. trend extrapolation
problem Auditing whether VLMs use chart evidence or trend extrapolation
method Proving formal limitations and designing controlled mechanisms
result Identifying regression coefficients for evidence vs. trend
A new method trains deep networks by separating weight locations from values.
problem Training deep networks efficiently and effectively.
method Lookahead Permutation (LaPerm) to train DNNs by reconnecting weights.
result LaPerm can train DNNs with random and dense, sparse, or single-valued initial weights.
This paper evaluates heuristics and hyperparameters in weight-sharing NAS methods.
problem Improving the performance of weight-sharing NAS methods.
method Systematic evaluation of heuristics and hyperparameters in weight-sharing NAS algorithms.
result Some heuristics negatively impact super-net and stand-alone performance correlation.
Optimizes sliding window approach for tracking Gaussian densities.
problem Improving tracking performance of Gaussian density estimation.
method Theoretical analysis of sliding window Gaussian Kernel Density Estimators.
result Empirical evidence shows improved tracking performance with optimal weight sequence.
Principal component analysis (PCA) is a useful tool when trying to construct factor models from historical asset returns. For the implied volatilities of U.S. equities there is a PCA-based model with a principal eigenportfolio whose return time series lies close to that of an overarching market factor. The authors show…
Much of the focus in machine learning research is placed in creating new architectures and optimization methods, but the overall loss function is seldom questioned. This paper interprets machine learning from a multi-objective optimization perspective, showing the limitations of the default linear combination of loss f…
Neural networks' weights don't converge to stationary points but training loss stabilizes.
problem The disconnect between theoretical analyses and neural network training practice.
method An invariant measure perspective inspired by ergodic theory of dynamical systems.
result The distribution of weights converges to an approximate invariant measure, explaining loss stabilization.
Adversarial weighting improves regression task adaptation.
problem Improving regression performance across domains with covariate shift.
method Adversarial network algorithm for instance weighting and task learning.
result The method enhances regression accuracy on target domains.
We investigate robustness of deep feed-forward neural networks when input data are subject to random uncertainties. More specifically, we consider regularization of the network by its Lipschitz constant and emphasize its role. We highlight the fact that this regularization is not only a way to control the magnitude of …
Boltzmann machines are powerful distributions that have been shown to be an effective prior over binary latent variables in variational autoencoders (VAEs). However, previous methods for training discrete VAEs have used the evidence lower bound and not the tighter importance-weighted bound. We propose two approaches fo…
Empirical evidence suggests that neural networks with ReLU activations generalize better with over-parameterization. However, there is currently no theoretical analysis that explains this observation. In this work, we provide theoretical and empirical evidence that, in certain cases, overparameterized convolutional net…
We examine how recently documented, fundamental phenomena in deep learning models subject to pruning are affected by changes in the pruning procedure. Specifically, we analyze differences in the connectivity structure and learning dynamics of pruned models found through a set of common iterative pruning techniques, to …
New loss function restores importance weighting in overparameterized models.
problem Restoring importance weighting in overparameterized neural networks.
method Introduced polynomially-tailed losses to restore effects of importance weighting.
result Polynomially-tailed losses improve performance in correcting distribution shift.
As a model problem for clustering, we consider the densest k-disjoint-clique problem of partitioning a weighted complete graph into k disjoint subgraphs such that the sum of the densities of these subgraphs is maximized. We establish that such subgraphs can be recovered from the solution of a particular semidefinite re…
In this paper we explore the role of sample mean in building a neural network for classification. This role is surprisingly extensive and includes: direct computation of weights without training, performance monitoring for samples without known classification, and self-training for unlabeled data. Experimental computat…
Recently theoretical guarantees have been obtained for matrix completion in the non-uniform sampling regime. In particular, if the sampling distribution aligns with the underlying matrix's leverage scores, then with high probability nuclear norm minimization will exactly recover the low rank matrix. In this article, we…
Algorithm reduces audit costs by identifying best service configurations from biased textual evidence.
problem Designing service systems from textual evidence requires accurate selection despite biased automated scoring.
method Developed PP-LUCB algorithm combining LLM scores and selective audits to minimize costs.
result Correctly identified the best model in 40/40 trials with 90% cost reduction.
Dual-edge spatial Jacobian image graph for interpretable diabetic retinopathy grading
problem Automated diabetic retinopathy grading from color fundus photographs
method Dual-edge spatial-Jacobian image graph
result 0.8076 accuracy, 0.8312 quadratic weighted kappa, 0.5915 macro-F1, 0.9330 adjacent-grade accuracy
Diffusion models optimize objectives similar to ELBO with Gaussian noise augmentation.
problem Optimizing diffusion models for high perceptual quality.
method Showed diffusion objectives are weighted ELBOs over noise levels, with Gaussian noise augmentation.
result Diffusion objectives equate to ELBO with Gaussian noise augmentation under monotonic weighting.
Membership in the Russell 1000 and 2000 Indices is based on a ranking of market capitalization in May. Each index is separately value weighted such that firms just inside the Russell 2000 are comparable in size to firms just outside (i.e. at the bottom of the Russell 1000) but have much higher index weights. These feat…
This paper proposes a continuous timing strategy for growth vs. defensive style allocation.
problem Dynamic allocation of growth and defensive ETF baskets using macro-market timing signals.
method Continuous smooth score combining multiple factors, mapped to G/D weights, smoothed with EWMA.
result Continuous style timing strategy outperforms static benchmarks in risk-adjusted returns.
Our work presents extensive empirical evidence that layer rotation, i.e. the evolution across training of the cosine distance between each layer's weight vector and its initialization, constitutes an impressively consistent indicator of generalization performance. In particular, larger cosine distances between final an…
This paper compares gradient estimators in importance-weighted VI and justifies the superiority of DREP over REP.
problem Understanding the impact of gradient estimators on importance-weighted VI algorithms.
method Unified theoretical comparison of reparameterized and doubly-reparameterized gradient estimators tied to IWAE, VR, and VR-IWAE bounds.
result Formally justifies the superiority of doubly-reparameterized gradient estimators over reparameterized ones in importance-weighted VI.
Bayesian neural networks are compressed using feature and weight pruning based on posterior inclusion probabilities.
problem Efficiently compressing Bayesian neural networks to reduce computation cost and improve generalizability.
method Bayesian model selection principles are applied to obtain posterior inclusion probabilities for pruning and feature selection.
result Pruned models show better generalizability on simulated and real-world data.
Variational Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) perform variational inference over weights, but it is difficult to specify meaningful priors and approximate posteriors in a high-dimensional weight space. We introduce functional variational Bayesian neural networks (fBNNs), which maximize an Evidence Lower BOund (ELBO) defi…