As renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) penetrate the power grid at an accelerating speed, it is essential for operators to have accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) energy forecasting for efficient operations and planning. Generally, observed weather data are applied in the solar PV generation forecasting model w…
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48 results for “Weather Forecasting”
New methods quantify uncertainties in AI weather forecasts.
problem Uncertainty in AI weather predictions.
method Comparing ensemble and post-hoc uncertainty quantification methods.
result Probabilistic forecasts improve over ensemble physics-based models.
Nowadays, with the unprecedented penetration of renewable distributed energy resources (DERs), the necessity of an efficient energy forecasting model is more demanding than before. Generally, forecasting models are trained using observed weather data while the trained models are applied for energy forecasting using for…
Benchmarking Physics-Informed Time-Series Models for Operational Global Station Weather Forecastingcs.LG
PhysicsFormer improves TSF models for GSWF with WEATHER-5K dataset.
problem Lack of comprehensive datasets for GSWF.
method PhysicsFormer combines dynamic core and Transformer, enforcing physical consistency.
result PhysicsFormer outperforms TSF models in operational forecasting.
Signature Kernel Scoring Rule: A Spatio-Temporal Diagnostic for Probabilistic Weather Forecastingstat.ML
Signature kernel scoring rule improves weather forecasting by capturing temporal and spatial dependencies.
problem Lack of suitable scoring rules for probabilistic weather forecasting.
method Reframe weather variables as continuous paths using iterated integrals (signature kernels) to capture temporal and spatial dependencies.
result Signature kernel scoring rule outperforms conventional methods in weather forecasting, especially for long-term forecasts.
Graph-EFM models weather uncertainty with graph-based ensembles.
problem Accurately capturing forecast uncertainty in chaotic weather.
method Flexible latent-variable formulation with hierarchical graph construction.
result Graph-EFM ensembles achieve equivalent or lower errors than deterministic models.
The paper presents a machine learning framework to combine weather forecasts from multiple models.
problem Combining forecasts from different NWP models with varying biases and limitations.
method Three-stage framework using Quantile Regression Forests and quantile averaging.
result The framework generates well-calibrated probabilistic weather forecasts suitable for decision support.
Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal predictionphysics.ao-ph
Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal prediction
problem Calibrated uncertainty quantification in probabilistic weather forecasts
method Conformal prediction
result Calibrated uncertainty at no expense to other probabilistic metrics
Improving data-driven global weather prediction using deep convolutional neural networks on a cubed spherephysics.ao-ph
Improved weather forecasting using deep CNN on cubed-sphere grid.
problem Global weather prediction accuracy and speed.
method Deep convolutional neural network (CNN) on cubed-sphere grid, offline mapping, loss minimization.
result Significantly improved weather forecasts, indefinitely stable, realistic patterns at long lead times.
Deep neural networks improve ensemble weather forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy and efficiency of ensemble weather forecasts.
method Mixed model combining subset of trajectories with deep neural networks for post-processing.
result Achieved over 14% relative improvement in ensemble forecast skill.
PeakWeather provides Swiss weather station data for machine learning.
problem Accurate weather forecasting for various activities and decision-making.
method High-quality dataset of surface weather observations from 8 years of Swiss stations.
result Dataset supports a wide range of spatiotemporal tasks.
Paper proposes a method for weather-informed probabilistic forecasting and scenario generation in power systems.
problem Challenges of integrating renewable energy sources into power grids due to their stochasticity and uncertainty.
method Combines probabilistic forecasting and Gaussian copula for day-ahead prediction and scenario generation of load, wind, and solar power.
result Demonstrates superior performance of the proposed weather-informed Temporal Fusion Transformer (WI-TFT) model.
ML weather forecasts lack physical consistency, but add value.
problem Lack of physical consistency in ML weather forecasts.
method Examined Pangu-Weather forecasts for fidelity and physical consistency.
result ML forecasts lack physical consistency and accuracy can be partly due to this.
Model forecasts hourly electricity demand influenced by weather, socio-economic, and political factors.
problem Accurate hourly electricity demand forecasting in the face of multifaceted uncertainties.
method Interpretable probabilistic mid-term forecasting model using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs).
result Highlights vulnerability of countries to extreme weather scenarios under electric heating adoption.
Modern weather forecast models perform uncertainty quantification using ensemble prediction systems, which collect nonparametric statistics based on multiple perturbed simulations. To provide accurate estimation, dozens of such computationally intensive simulations must be run. We show that deep neural networks can be …
Deep learning model predicts European weather parameters.
problem Ensemble weather prediction using deep learning.
method Conditional deep convolutional generative adversarial network (GAN) and Monte-Carlo dropout.
result Forecast skill for geopotential height and two-meter temperature is good, but precipitation is challenging.
Enhancing Stratospheric Weather Analyses and Forecasts by Deploying Sensors from a Weather Ballooncs.LG
The ability to analyze and forecast stratospheric weather conditions is fundamental to addressing climate change. However, our capacity to collect data in the stratosphere is limited by sparsely deployed weather balloons. We propose a framework to collect stratospheric data by releasing a contrail of tiny sensor device…
A deep learning method for probabilistic weather forecasting.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of weather.
method Two chained machine-learning steps: dimension reduction and density estimation using normalizing flows.
result The method produces accurate conditional forecast distributions for weather.
Neural network predicts weather probabilities with added uncertainty.
problem Inferring uncertainty from weather predictions.
method Data-driven neural network trained on WeatherBench dataset, combining outputs from subsets of variables.
result More accurate than some numerical models, provides probabilistic information.
This study improves weather forecasting accuracy with spatiotemporal models.
problem Complexity and resource-intensive nature of weather forecasting.
method Spatiotemporal forecasting models integrating machine learning and deep neural networks.
result Spatiotemporal models reduce computational costs and improve accuracy.
DAUM networks improve weather forecasting with attention and multistream features.
problem Improving weather forecasting accuracy using deep learning.
method Proposes DAUM networks combining tensorial unistream and multistream representations with attention mechanisms.
result Adding self-attention blocks enhances forecasting performance.
On the sensitivity of machine-learned probabilistic weather forecast models to scale-aware scoring rulesphysics.ao-ph
Study compares different scoring rules for machine-learned weather forecasts, finding scale-awareness improves forecast realism.
problem Improving the accuracy of machine-learned probabilistic weather forecasts.
method Comparison of scoring rules (CRPS, fair global energy score, graph energy score) and analysis of their impact on forecast field spectra.
result Scale-awareness improves forecast realism, particularly in the tropics.
PBC improves AI and dynamical subseasonal forecasts by reducing biases.
problem Subseasonal forecast accuracy drops due to model biases and compounding errors.
method Probabilistic bias correction (PBC) using machine learning to correct historical forecasts.
result PBC doubles AI Forecasting System's subseasonal skill and improves dynamical model skill.
New method improves wind and solar energy forecasts by 48 hours.
problem Volatility of wind and solar energy makes accurate forecasts difficult.
method Two-step machine learning approach to calibrate ensemble forecasts.
result Statistical post-processing improves forecast skill by at least 48 hours.
Enhanced visibility forecasts using CAMS data improve accuracy.
problem Improving the accuracy of visibility predictions in weather forecasts.
method Statistical post-processing with historical observations and CAMS forecasts.
result Post-processed forecasts with CAMS data are substantially superior to raw and climatological predictions.
FCNv2 robustness tested under noise and random initial conditions.
problem Assessing AI weather forecasting model robustness to input noise.
method Two experiments with varying noise levels and random initial conditions.
result FCNv2 preserves hurricane features under low to moderate noise, but underestimates intensity and persistence.
Graph-based weather prediction adapted for local models.
problem Applying neural weather prediction to limited area modeling.
method Adapting graph-based Neural Weather Prediction approach to local models.
result Validation of multi-scale hierarchical model extension for Nordic region.
Weather forecasting is usually solved through numerical weather prediction (NWP), which can sometimes lead to unsatisfactory performance due to inappropriate setting of the initial states. In this paper, we design a data-driven method augmented by an effective information fusion mechanism to learn from historical data …
Deep learning improves weather modeling for electricity load forecasting.
problem Accurate load and renewable energy forecasting requires complex spatio-temporal weather modeling.
method Automated spatio-temporal feature extraction using deep neural networks.
result Deep learning outperforms traditional methods in French national load forecasting.
MetNet forecasts precipitation up to 8 hours with high spatial and temporal resolution.
problem Precise weather forecasting for long lead times.
method Neural network architecture using axial self-attention for global context aggregation.
result MetNet outperforms Numerical Weather Prediction at forecasts of up to 8 hours.
Improved weather forecasting with gridded pseudo-token TNPs.
problem Handling large-scale, unstructured spatio-temporal data in weather forecasting.
method Introducing gridded pseudo-token transformer neural processes (TNPs) with efficient attention mechanisms.
result Consistently outperforms baselines on various synthetic and real-world regression tasks involving large-scale data.
U-Cast simplifies AI weather forecasting with a standard U-Net and efficient training.
problem Complex AI models limit accessibility and cost for weather forecasting.
method Simple U-Net backbone, deterministic pre-training, and probabilistic fine-tuning with Monte Carlo Dropout.
result U-Cast matches or exceeds state-of-the-art models in accuracy while reducing training and inference costs.
Study evaluates post-processing methods for improving solar power forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy of probabilistic solar energy forecasts through model chain approaches.
method Systematically evaluates different post-processing strategies for ensemble weather forecasts and direct solar power forecasting.
result Post-processing significantly improves solar power generation forecasts, especially when applied to power predictions.
Study improves PM concentration forecasting using MCCR loss.
problem Forecasting particulate matter concentration in South Korea.
method Used MCCR loss for regression analysis of air pollution and weather data.
result MCCR loss is more effective for extreme value forecasting.
This paper improves wind power prediction via weather forecast-contextualized Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM) models. Initially, only wind power data was fed to a generic LSTM, but this model performed poorly, with erratic and naive behavior observed on even low-variance data sections. To address this issu…
Hybrid model improves weather forecasting accuracy.
problem Combining physics and machine learning for better weather predictions.
method Offline and online training of a neural network to correct model errors in the IFS.
result The hybrid model reduces forecast errors and improves accuracy.
System predicts ice formation to improve road safety.
problem Improving road safety through accurate ice formation prediction.
method Combining physical models and machine learning for data correction.
result Machine learning effectively corrects incorrect data in forecasts.
Paper examines adversarial attacks on weather forecasting models, focusing on TC trajectory prediction.
problem Adversarial attacks can mislead downstream TC trajectory predictions in DLWF models.
method Proposes Cyc-Attack, a method using a surrogate model and skewness-aware loss function to generate adversarial TC paths.
result Cyc-Attack achieves higher true positive rates and lower false alarm rates compared to conventional methods.
SubseasonalClimateUSA dataset improves subseasonal weather forecasting.
problem Challenges in subseasonal weather forecasting, especially skill of physics-based models and integration of local and global variables.
method Curated dataset for training and benchmarking subseasonal forecasting models, including various methods.
result Benchmarking suggests simple and effective ways to improve current operational models.
In this article, we propose a novel ensemble technique with a multi-scheme weighting based on a technique called coopetitive soft gating. This technique combines both, ensemble member competition and cooperation, in order to maximize the overall forecasting accuracy of the ensemble. The proposed algorithm combines the …
CNNs improve wind speed forecasts in the Netherlands.
problem Limited spatial patterns in current post-processing methods.
method Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for spatial wind speed information.
result CNNs produce better probabilistic forecasts with higher Brier skill scores.
We provide a model to understand how adverse weather conditions modify traffic flow dynamic. We first prove that the microscopic Free Flow Speed of the vehicles is changed and then provide a rule to model this change. For this, we consider a thresholded linear model, corresponding to an application of a MARS model to r…
Study uses SVM to predict weather-induced home insurance claims and losses.
problem Assessing future weather-induced home insurance claims and losses for disaster preparedness.
method Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression for forecasting future claim dynamics.
result Illustrates SVM approach in forecasting weather-induced home insurance claims in a Canadian city.
WindDragon forecasts wind power with deep learning.
problem Accurate short-term wind power forecasting is crucial for grid operation.
method Automated Deep Learning combined with Numerical Weather Predictions.
result Automated Deep Learning improves wind power forecasting accuracy.
Data-driven approaches, most prominently deep learning, have become powerful tools for prediction in many domains. A natural question to ask is whether data-driven methods could also be used to predict global weather patterns days in advance. First studies show promise but the lack of a common dataset and evaluation me…
The ability to accurately forecast power generation from renewable sources is nowadays recognised as a fundamental skill to improve the operation of power systems. Despite the general interest of the power community in this topic, it is not always simple to compare different forecasting methodologies, and infer the imp…
Neural networks learn from ensemble forecasts without considering their order.
problem Improving reliability of probabilistic weather forecasts.
method Permutation-invariant neural networks for postprocessing ensemble forecasts.
result Models achieve state-of-the-art prediction quality in surface temperature and wind gust forecasts.
Dynamic probabilistic forecasts guide optimal decisions in uncertain processes.
problem Optimal decision making in processes influenced by uncertain random factors.
method Stochastic models for probabilistic forecast evolution, calibrated from ensemble forecasts.
result Optimal decision strategies determined using dynamic probabilistic forecasts.