The paper bounds solutions to complex optimization problems with uncertain data.
problem Distributionally robust optimization problems with multivariate uncertainty sets.
method Conditions and bounds derived for multivariate and univariate Wasserstein distances, Bregman-Wasserstein divergences, and signed Choquet integrals.
result Computable lower and upper bounds for DRO problems, derived from scalar-valued aggregation functions and Wasserstein distances.
New algorithm solves uncertain Markov decision processes using Wasserstein uncertainty.
problem Solving Markov decision processes with uncertain transition probabilities.
method Distributionally robust Q-learning algorithm for Wasserstein uncertainty. result Convergence of the algorithm proved and demonstrated with real data.
Wasserstein Dropout improves uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
problem Estimating neural uncertainties for safe machine learning.
method A purely non-parametric approach using dropout-based sub-network distributions and Wasserstein distance.
result Wasserstein Dropout outperforms state-of-the-art methods in uncertainty estimation.
New framework robustly handles outliers in Wasserstein DRO for better decision-making.
problem Non-geometric perturbations like adversarial outliers distort Wasserstein distance.
method Proposes an outlier-robust WDRO framework using a robust Wasserstein ball.
result Derives minimax optimal excess risk bounds for robust WDRO.
Framework for quantifying uncertainty in dynamic processes.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in dynamic stochastic processes.
method Define dynamic uncertainty sets and dynamic robust risk measures.
result Dynamic robust risk measures are time-consistent under specific uncertainty sets.
Bayesian optimization tackles uncertainty in context variables.
problem Sequential decision-making under context distributional uncertainty.
method Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimization.
result Sublinear regret bounds matching state-of-the-art results.
Unified theory of optimal transport for random measures.
problem Statistical uncertainty in optimal transport.
method Constructing L2 over Wasserstein space for random probability measures. result Unified treatment of random optimal transport and principled inference.
Framework for robust control under model uncertainty, improving financial derivatives hedging.
problem Model uncertainty in financial derivatives hedging.
method Dynamic programming principle for solving one-step optimization problems.
result Robust hedging strategy outperforms model-based strategies during adverse scenarios.
A new framework for measuring uncertainty in machine learning models.
problem Uncertainty measures for second-order distributions in machine learning models have theoretical flaws.
method Formal criteria and a general framework based on the Wasserstein distance.
result The Wasserstein distance-based measure satisfies all proposed criteria for meaningful uncertainty measures.
Robust Q-learning for mean-field control under Wasserstein uncertainty
problem Mean-field control under Wasserstein uncertainty
method Quantization-and-projection scheme with Wasserstein dual reformulation
result Convergence and finite-time iteration bounds
Proposes hinge-Wasserstein to improve uncertainty estimation in regression tasks.
problem Estimating multimodal aleatoric uncertainty in regression tasks from images.
method Regression-by-classification paradigm with hinge-Wasserstein loss.
result Hinge-Wasserstein loss improves uncertainty estimation on challenging tasks.
Improved RL algorithm for robustness against parameter mismatches.
problem Learning robust control policies against parameter mismatches between training and testing environments.
method Formulated as DR-RL problem, proposed RPVL algorithm for tabular episodic learning with four divergences.
result Achieved ildeO(∣S∣∣A∣H5) sample complexity uniformly better than existing results. Framework for optimizing portfolios under model uncertainty.
problem Optimizing portfolios in volatile markets considering model uncertainty.
method Dynamic programming and robust optimization for Markov decision processes.
result Robust optimization leads to better portfolio strategies in uncertain market conditions.
Sharp bounds for distortion risk metrics under uncertain distributions.
problem Modeling risk metrics under distributional uncertainty.
method Established bounds for distortion risk metrics using specific features of underlying distributions.
result Identified worst- and best-case values of distortion risk metrics.
Proposes a fair classification model using Wasserstein ambiguity sets.
problem Ensuring fairness in classification models.
method Distributionally robust optimization with Wasserstein ambiguity sets and equal opportunity fairness constraint.
result Improves fairness without significant loss in predictive accuracy.
A new method combines Gaussian Processes to optimize under uncertainty.
problem Bayesian Optimization's weakness in fitting Gaussian Processes.
method Wasserstein Barycenter Gaussian Process (WBGP) approach.
result WBGP-BO converges to the optimum, improving on vanilla BO.
The paper analyzes insurance contracts under distributional uncertainty using Bregman-Wasserstein divergence.
problem Optimal insurance contracts under distributional ambiguity.
method Utilizes Bregman-Wasserstein ball to characterize ambiguity sets, employs robust optimization.
result Derives optimal indemnity functions in closed form and studies their properties.
This paper investigates WDRO for nonparametric regression, achieving robustness against distributional uncertainty.
problem Addressing model misspecification in nonparametric regression under distributional uncertainty.
method Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization (WDRO) with structural distinction based on Wasserstein distance order.
result Achieves a convergence rate of n−2β/(d+2β) up to logarithmic factors, showing minimax optimality. DRIVE improves IV estimation by accounting for distributional uncertainties.
problem Challenges in IV estimation due to untestable model assumptions and poor finite sample properties.
method DRIVE is a distributionally robust IV estimation method that minimizes a square root TSLS objective with a Wasserstein ambiguity set.
result DRIVE achieves consistency without requiring regularization parameter to vanish, ensuring robustness to distributional uncertainties.
Wasserstein active regression improves estimation precision.
problem Improving regression model accuracy through active learning.
method Combines Wasserstein distance and GroupSort Neural Networks for uncertainty quantification.
result Wasserstein active regression often provides more precise estimations.
Optimal financial strategies minimize risk under uncertain models.
problem Maximizing utility in financial markets with model uncertainty.
method Optimized strategies converge to those with minimal norm as uncertainty increases.
result Optimal strategies with minimal norm emerge as uncertainty grows.
Develops a method to estimate rare-event probabilities under distributional uncertainty.
problem Distributional uncertainty limits the effectiveness of rare-event simulation techniques.
method Wasserstein distributionally robust rare-event simulation (DRIS) framework.
result DRIS achieves vanishing relative error in estimating rare-event probabilities.
Proposes a new method for efficient model reconstruction with uncertain parameters.
problem Reconstructing models with latent variables or parameters of unknown distribution.
method Local squared Wasserstein-2 (W_2) method.
result Efficiently reconstructs output distributions from observation data.
New approach connects reinforcement learning robustness and regularization.
problem Dealing with external uncertainty in reinforcement learning.
method Introducing Wasserstein distributionally robust MDPs and a new regularizer.
result Established a dual relation between robust MDPs and regularization.
We develop a novel computationally efficient and general framework for robust hypothesis testing. The new framework features a new way to construct uncertainty sets under the null and the alternative distributions, which are sets centered around the empirical distribution defined via Wasserstein metric, thus our approa…
Robust portfolio optimization considers uncertainty in market probabilities.
problem Uncertainty in market probabilities in multiperiod portfolio selection.
method Robust mean-variance optimization using Wasserstein ball centered at empirical data.
result Numerical simulations show improved performance compared to other strategies.
We analyze how uncertainty in models affects optimization outcomes using Wasserstein distances.
problem Sensitivity of optimization problems to model uncertainty.
method Non-parametric approach using Wasserstein balls to capture uncertainty, providing explicit corrections for value function and optimizer.
result Explicit formulae for first-order corrections to value function and optimizer.
FDR-SVM improves classification robustness in federated learning with uncertain data.
problem Federated learning with uncertain and private client data.
method Develops FDR-SVM, a robust SVM approach using a mixture of Wasserstein balls ambiguity set.
result Establishes theoretical guarantees and derives algorithms with performance bounds.
New framework models graph signals as distribution-valued signals in Wasserstein space.
problem Limitations of classical vector-based GSP, including synchronous observations and uncertainty.
method Introduces graph distribution-valued signals (GDSs) in the Wasserstein space.
result GDSs naturally encode uncertainty and stochasticity, generalizing traditional graph signals.
New method optimizes black-box functions using generative models and Wasserstein distance.
problem Optimizing black-box functions with stochastic responses in high dimensions.
method Deep generative surrogate models and Wasserstein distance for uncertainty estimation.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in robustness to function shape and stochasticity.
A new conformal prediction framework for graph-valued outputs using Z-Gromov-Wasserstein distances.
problem Lack of principled uncertainty quantification for graph-valued supervised prediction.
method Proposes a conformal prediction framework using Z-Gromov-Wasserstein distances for graph-valued outputs.
result Provides distribution-free coverage guarantees for graph-valued outputs.
Study extends DRO with IPMs, linking robustness to regularization and GANs.
problem Addressing robustness of deep neural networks to adversarial attacks.
method Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) with Integral Probability Metrics (IPMs).
result DRO under any IPM corresponds to a family of regularization penalties.
Optimizes a small set of centroid points to approximate bootstrap distribution.
problem Computational inefficiency of standard bootstrap methods in large-scale machine learning.
method Explicitly optimizes a small set of high quality centroid points to approximate the ideal bootstrap distribution.
result Accurately estimates uncertainty with a small number of bootstrap centroids, outperforming i.i.d. sampling.
Nonparametric adaptive robust control tackles model uncertainty in stochastic processes.
problem Model uncertainty in stochastic processes.
method Adaptive robust control methodology using online learning and uncertainty reduction, empirical distribution, and Lagrangian duality.
result Nonparametric adaptive robust control approach is preferable to traditional robust frameworks.
The paper explores arbitrage in financial markets under uncertainty using Wasserstein distance.
problem Investigating arbitrage in financial markets with distributional uncertainty.
method Using Wasserstein distance, the paper considers weak and strong forms of arbitrage conditions and introduces a relaxation called statistical arbitrage.
result The paper derives dual formulations of robust arbitrage conditions and conducts computational experiments to answer questions about ambiguity and statistical arbitrage.
Worst-Case Sensitivity measures model sensitivity to uncertainty set size.
problem Model sensitivity to uncertainty set size in Distributionally Robust Optimization.
method Introducing Worst-Case Sensitivity as a measure of model sensitivity, and deriving closed-form expressions for various uncertainty sets.
result DRO solutions can be sensitive to the family and size of the uncertainty set, and worst-case sensitivity reflects these properties.
Proposes new loss functions for better handling bimodal predictive uncertainty.
problem Bimodal predictive uncertainty in machine learning models.
method Family of distribution-aware loss functions integrating normalized RMSE with Wasserstein and Cramér distances.
result Proposed loss functions reduce predictive uncertainty estimation error by 45% on complex bimodal datasets.
A framework tackles model uncertainty in ALM, providing robust investment strategies.
problem Model uncertainty in asset liability management (ALM).
method Wasserstein barycenter approach to handle various information sources and uncertainties.
result The proposed framework selects robust investment portfolios that remain optimal under various uncertainties.
Motivated by the growing popularity of variants of the Wasserstein distance in statistics and machine learning, we study statistical inference for the Sliced Wasserstein distance--an easily computable variant of the Wasserstein distance. Specifically, we construct confidence intervals for the Sliced Wasserstein distanc…
Expands robust profit opportunities to include distributional uncertainty.
problem Distributional uncertainty in financial markets.
method Formulates infinite dimensional primal problems, simplifies to finite dimensional dual problems using Wasserstein distance.
result Distributional uncertainty can enhance robustness of profit opportunities.
The paper studies robust risk measures with linear penalties under uncertain distributions.
problem Risk measurement under distributional uncertainty.
method Robust distortion risk measures with linear penalty function under distributional constraints.
result Explicit characterization of optimal quantile distribution and value function.
Wasserstein gradient boosting predicts probability distributions for supervised learning.
problem Distribution-valued supervised learning where outputs are probability distributions.
method Fits a new weak learner to Wasserstein gradients of loss functionals of probability distributions.
result Superior performance in probabilistic prediction compared to existing methods.
This paper compares different DRO formulations for pension fund management.
problem Navigating uncertainty in asset liability management for pension funds.
method Three DRO formulations: mixture, box, and Wasserstein ambiguity sets.
result Wasserstein and box ambiguity sets outperform traditional approaches in fund performance.
New method improves PCA robustness using Wasserstein distances.
problem Uncertainty in probability distribution affects PCA robustness.
method Distributionally robust optimization with Wasserstein distances.
result Explicit reformulation leads to efficient smoothing algorithm.
Paper proves robust estimators' generalization guarantees without dimensionality issues.
problem Generalization guarantees for Wasserstein distributionally robust models.
method Analyzes and extends existing guarantees to broader classes of models and regularized versions.
result Generalization guarantees hold without dimensionality issues and cover distribution shifts.
GWI combines deep neural networks with Gaussian processes for better predictive performance and uncertainty quantification.
problem Combining deep learning with Gaussian process uncertainty quantification.
method Gaussian Wasserstein inference (GWI) using Wasserstein distance between Gaussian measures.
result GWI achieves state-of-the-art performance on benchmark datasets.
Optimizes sample reweighting to match laws under covariate shift using Wasserstein distance.
problem Matching laws of samples with different distributions under covariate shift.
method Minimizes Wasserstein distance between empirical measures of samples using Nearest Neighbors weights.
result Consistent reweighting leads to asymptotic convergence of empirical measures.
New Wasserstein divergence improves generative model robustness and structure preservation.
problem Improving generative model robustness and structure preservation.
method Introduces a novel Wasserstein-1 path-space divergence and a WUP theorem.
result Derives robustness and generalization bounds for flow-based models.