A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper shows how to combine optimal tests into log-optimal processes.
In sequential anytime-valid inference, any admissible procedure must be based on e-processes: generalizations of test martingales that quantify the accumulated evidence against a composite null hypothesis at any stopping time. This paper proposes a method for combining e-processes constructed in different filtrations b…
Unified framework for online LLM watermark detection using e-processes.
A new method for backtesting ES forecasts in banking.
CSA fills a gap in RLVR-trained LLM deployment by providing anytime-valid selective risk control.
Develops new e-processes and confidence sequences for Gaussian means with unknown variance.
We investigate the waiting-time distribution of the absolute return in the Korean stock-market index KOSPI. We define the waiting time as a time interval during which the normalized absolute return remains continuously below a threshold . Through an exponential bin plot, we observe that the waiting-time distributi…
The goal of developing a firmer theoretical understanding of inhomogenous temporal processes -- in particular, the waiting times in some collective dynamical system -- is attracting significant interest among physicists. Quantifying the deviations in the waiting-time distribution away from one generated by a random pro…
A new method for releasing AI workflows to avoid premature incorrect results.
New diagnostic method detects misspecified models in inverse PDE problems.
We evaluate the average waiting time between observing the price of financial markets and the next price change, especially in an on-line foreign exchange trading service for individual customers via the internet. Basic technical idea of our present work is dependent on the so-called renewal-reward theorem. Assuming th…
In high frequency financial data not only returns but also waiting times between trades are random variables. In this work, we analyze the spectra of the waiting-time processes for tick-by-tick trades. The numerical problem, strictly related with the real inversion of Laplace transforms, is analyzed by using Tikhonov's…
We investigate intra-day foreign exchange (FX) time series using the inverse statistic analysis developed in [1,2]. Specifically, we study the time-averaged distributions of waiting times needed to obtain a certain increase (decrease) in the price of an investment. The analysis is performed for the Deutsch mark (DM…
In high-frequency financial data not only returns, but also waiting times between consecutive trades are random variables. Therefore, it is possible to apply continuous-time random walks (CTRWs) as phenomenological models of the high-frequency price dynamics. An empirical analysis performed on the 30 DJIA stocks shows …
In high-frequency financial data not only returns, but also waiting times between consecutive trades are random variables. Therefore, it is possible to apply continuous-time random walks (CTRWs) as phenomenological models of the high-frequency price dynamics. An empirical analysis performed on the 30 DJIA stocks shows …
We briefly review our recent studies on stochastic processes modelling internet on-line trading. We present a way to evaluate the average waiting time between the observation of the price in financial markets and the next price change, especially in an on-line foreign exchange trading service for individual customers v…
We analyze waiting times for price changes in a foreign currency exchange rate. Recent empirical studies of high frequency financial data support that trades in financial markets do not follow a Poisson process and the waiting times between trades are not exponentially distributed. Here we show that our data is well ap…
Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) are used in physics to model anomalous diffusion, by incorporating a random waiting time between particle jumps. In finance, the particle jumps are log-returns and the waiting times measure delay between transactions. These two random variables (log-return and waiting time) are typi…
Optimal tests for composite nulls achieve the KL inf lower bound.
Extends FC-RAG to anytime-valid sequential coverage for language model swarms.
Continuous time random walks impose a random waiting time before each particle jump. Scaling limits of heavy tailed continuous time random walks are governed by fractional evolution equations. Space-fractional derivatives describe heavy tailed jumps, and the time-fractional version codes heavy tailed waiting times. Thi…
We complement the theory of tick-by-tick dynamics of financial markets based on a Continuous-Time Random Walk (CTRW) model recently proposed by Scalas et al., and we point out its consistency with the behaviour observed in the waiting-time distribution for BUND future prices traded at LIFFE, London.
A theory which describes the share price evolution at financial markets as a continuous-time random walk has been generalized in order to take into account the dependence of waiting times t on price returns x. A joint probability density function (pdf) which uses the concept of a Lévy stable distribution is worked out.…
New model explains price, volume, and waiting times in financial markets.
Optimal timing for borrowing from a 457(b) plan to maximize returns.
Background: Many authors have described MELD as a predictor of short-term mortality in the liver transplantation waiting list. However MELD score accuracy to predict long term mortality has not been statistically evaluated. Objective: The aim of this study is to analyze the MELD score as well as other variables as a pr…
Modeling business expansion as a stochastic control problem, the study finds that firms are incentivized to expand but may wait.
New algorithm reduces costs and latency for large language model inference.
In financial markets, not only prices and returns can be considered as random variables, but also the waiting time between two transactions varies randomly. In the following, we analyse the statistical properties of General Electric stock prices, traded at NYSE, in October 1999. These properties are critically revised …
In this paper, the survival function of waiting times between orders and the corresponding trades in a double-auction market is studied both by means of experiments and of empirical data. It turns out that, already at the level of order durations, the survival function cannot be represented by a single exponential, thu…
Develops a nonparametric framework for detecting changes in sequential data.
This paper shows how to construct sequential tests with power one against weakly compact sets in Polish spaces.
We propose a useful approach for investigating the statistical properties of foreign currency exchange rates. Our approach is based on queueing theory, particularly, the so-called renewal-reward theorem. For the first passage processes of the Sony Bank US dollar/Japanese yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate, we evaluate the ave…
Unified framework controls false discovery rate in bandit multiple testing.
Possible distributions are discussed for intertrade durations and first-passage processes in financial markets. The view-point of renewal theory is assumed. In order to represent market data with relatively long durations, two types of distributions are used, namely, a distribution derived from the so-called Mittag-Lef…
Inverse statistics in economics is considered. We argue that the natural candidate for such statistics is the investment horizons distribution. This distribution of waiting times needed to achieve a predefined level of return is obtained from (often detrended) historic asset prices. Such a distribution typically goes t…
A new algorithm reduces training time for distributed machine learning by dynamically assigning backup workers.
New method detects data distribution changes and retraining is advised.
New approach uses deep reinforcement learning for vehicle dispatching, reducing waiting times.
Algorithm maximizes rewards with a budget and giving up option.
Study detects concept shift in online data using martingales.
Extended Ville's inequality for nonintegrable supermartingales.
The inverse statistics is the distribution of waiting times needed to achieve a predefined level of return obtained from (detrended) historic asset prices \cite{optihori,gainloss}. Such a distribution typically goes through a maximum at a time coined the {\em optimal investment horizon}, , which defines the most…
This paper studies the timing of trades under mean-reverting price dynamics subject to fixed transaction costs. We solve an optimal double stopping problem to determine the optimal times to enter and subsequently exit the market, when prices are driven by an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. In addition, we analy…
We investigate a class of optimal stopping problems arising in, for example, studies considering the timing of an irreversible investment when the underlying follows a skew Brownian motion. Our results indicate that the local directional predictability modeled by the presence of a skew point for the underlying has a no…
The level crossing and inverse statistics analysis of DAX and oil price time series are given. We determine the average frequency of positive-slope crossings, , where is the average waiting time for observing the level again. We estimate the probability , which provides us the probab…
Exploiting a precise reproduction of a stock exchange, the robustness of the Continuous Double Auction (CDA) mechanism, evaluated by means of the waiting time distributions, has been proved versus 36 different set ups made by varying both the operators' behaviour and the market micro structure. The obtained results dem…
By applying the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis to the high-frequency tick-by-tick data from Deutsche Börse both in the price and in the time domains, we investigate multifractal properties of the time series of logarithmic price increments and inter-trade intervals of time. We show that both quantities rev…