arXiv research

A new clustering method for vector time series using autoregressive dynamics.

Study improves dividend discount model using VAR process.

We show Vector Autoregressive Moving Average models with scalar Moving Average components could be estimated by generalized least square (GLS) for each fixed moving average polynomial. The conditional variance of the GLS model is the concentrated covariant matrix of the moving average process. Under GLS the likelihood …

There has been considerable advance in understanding the properties of sparse regularization procedures in high-dimensional models. In time series context, it is mostly restricted to Gaussian autoregressions or mixing sequences. We study oracle properties of LASSO estimation of weakly sparse vector-autoregressive model…

New framework IIA identifies innovations in general nonlinear vector autoregressive processes.

We present a distributionally robust formulation of a stochastic optimization problem for non-i.i.d vector autoregressive data. We use the Wasserstein distance to define robustness in the space of distributions and we show, using duality theory, that the problem is equivalent to a finite convex-concave saddle point pro…

LTMs use latent vectors for efficient autoregressive generation.

Paper uses non-linear dimension reduction for better economic forecasting.

Neural autoregressive models are explicit density estimators that achieve state-of-the-art likelihoods for generative modeling. The D-dimensional data distribution is factorized into an autoregressive product of one-dimensional conditional distributions according to the chain rule. Data completion is a more involved ta…

Vector autoregressive models characterize a variety of time series in which linear combinations of current and past observations can be used to accurately predict future observations. For instance, each element of an observation vector could correspond to a different node in a network, and the parameters of an autoregr…

Sparse Tucker decomposition with graph regularization improves time series forecasting accuracy.

BAVART model combines VAR and BART for non-linear forecasting.

Linear attention in Transformers can be interpreted as dynamic VAR models.

Proposes PredVAR model for reduced-dimensional dynamics from noisy data.

ARMA cell simplifies neural autoregressive modeling for time series.

The paper proposes a new model for predicting and analyzing economic variables.

High-speed model accurately simulates neuromorphic devices.

mGENRE improves multilingual entity linking with autoregressive sequence prediction.

Incorporating nonlinearity is paramount to predicting the future states of a dynamical system, its response to shocks, and its underlying causal network. However, most existing methods for causality detection and impulse response, such as Vector Autoregression (VAR), assume linearity and are thus unable to capture the …

A new model trains prior and encoder/decoder networks simultaneously for efficient generation.

New method for estimating and testing impulse responses in high-dimensional VAR systems.

High-dimensional time series data exist in numerous areas such as finance, genomics, healthcare, and neuroscience. An unavoidable aspect of all such datasets is missing data, and dealing with this issue has been an important focus in statistics, control, and machine learning. In this work, we consider a high-dimensiona…

Calculates local Granger causality for Gaussian and nonlinear systems.

We study sparse principal component analysis for high dimensional vector autoregressive time series under a doubly asymptotic framework, which allows the dimension $d$ to scale with the series length $T$. We treat the transition matrix of time series as a nuisance parameter and directly apply sparse principal component…

Volatility is a key measure of risk in financial analysis. The high volatility of one financial asset today could affect the volatility of another asset tomorrow. These lagged effects among volatilities - which we call volatility spillovers - are studied using the Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model. We account for the p…

The paper develops fast Bayesian methods for estimating huge PVARs with competitive forecasts.

Study on estimating sparse transition matrix of partially-observed VAR with noisy and sparse data.

Novel estimation methods improve MAR model accuracy for high-dimensional time series.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility covariance matrix of the time series is modelled via inverted Wishart and singul…

Study shows how market efficiency changes during the pandemic.

Proposes a Structural Matrix Autoregressive model for joint analysis of asset returns, realized volatility, and trading volume.

The 2006 sudden and immense downturn in U.S. House Prices sparked the 2007 global financial crisis and revived the interest about forecasting such imminent threats for economic stability. In this paper we propose a novel hybrid forecasting methodology that combines the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) from …

Paper proposes a new sparse VAR model for high-dimensional time series.

GENRE retrieves entities autoregressively, improving efficiency and accuracy.

This paper establishes non-asymptotic oracle inequalities for the prediction error and estimation accuracy of the LASSO in stationary vector autoregressive models. These inequalities are used to establish consistency of the LASSO even when the number of parameters is of a much larger order of magnitude than the sample …

SpinSVAR estimates SVAR models with sparse input, improving accuracy and scalability.

Study examines dynamic relationship between BRICS stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Structural equation models (SEMs) and vector autoregressive models (VARMs) are two broad families of approaches that have been shown useful in effective brain connectivity studies. While VARMs postulate that a given region of interest in the brain is directionally connected to another one by virtue of time-lagged influ…

Paper proposes a new MAR model for global economic forecasting.

Bayesian VAR model discovers Granger causality with uncertainty-aware binary graphs.

In the paper, we consider the problem of link prediction in time-evolving graphs. We assume that certain graph features, such as the node degree, follow a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and we propose to use this information to improve the accuracy of prediction. Our strategy involves a joint optimization procedure …

Deep neural networks with discrete latent variables offer the promise of better symbolic reasoning, and learning abstractions that are more useful to new tasks. There has been a surge in interest in discrete latent variable models, however, despite several recent improvements, the training of discrete latent variable m…

The Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model is fundamental to the study of multivariate time series. Although VAR models are intensively investigated by many researchers, practitioners often show more interest in analyzing VARX models that incorporate the impact of unmodeled exogenous variables (X) into the VAR. However, sin…

We show how to solve a number of problems in numerical linear algebra, such as least squares regression, $\ell_p$-regression for any $p \geq 1$, low rank approximation, and kernel regression, in time $T(A) \poly(\log(nd))$, where for a given input matrix $A \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times d}$, $T(A)$ is the time needed to com…

New method for inferring network topology from partial data.

In this work we consider the problem of anomaly detection in heterogeneous, multivariate, variable-length time series datasets. Our focus is on the aviation safety domain, where data objects are flights and time series are sensor readings and pilot switches. In this context the goal is to detect anomalous flight segmen…

We introduce a concept of $autoregressive$ (AR)state-space realization that could be applied to all transfer functions $\boldsymbol{T}(L)$ with $\boldsymbol{T}(0)$ invertible. We show that a theorem of Kalman implies each Vector Autoregressive model (with exogenous variables) has a minimal $AR$-state-space realization …

Sustainability became the most important component of world development, as countries worldwide fight the battle against the climate change. To understand the effects of climate change, the ecological footprint, along with the biocapacity should be observed. The big part of the ecological footprint, the carbon footprin…