A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
In econometrics and finance, the vector error correction model (VECM) is an important time series model for cointegration analysis, which is used to estimate the long-run equilibrium variable relationships. The traditional analysis and estimation methodologies assume the underlying Gaussian distribution but, in practic…
An associative memory is a framework of content-addressable memory that stores a collection of message vectors (or a dataset) over a neural network while enabling a neurally feasible mechanism to recover any message in the dataset from its noisy version. Designing an associative memory requires addressing two main task…
Certain theoretical aspects of vector autoregression (VAR) as tools to model economic time series are revised, in particular their capacity to include both short term and long term information. The VAR model, in its error correction form, is derived and the permanent-transitory decomposition of factors proposed by Gonz…
This paper establishes non-asymptotic oracle inequalities for the prediction error and estimation accuracy of the LASSO in stationary vector autoregressive models. These inequalities are used to establish consistency of the LASSO even when the number of parameters is of a much larger order of magnitude than the sample …
This paper proposes a representational model for grid cells. In this model, the 2D self-position of the agent is represented by a high-dimensional vector, and the 2D self-motion or displacement of the agent is represented by a matrix that transforms the vector. Each component of the vector is a unit or a cell. The mode…
In this work, we present a family of vector quantization schemes \emph{vqSGD} (Vector-Quantized Stochastic Gradient Descent) that provide an asymptotic reduction in the communication cost with convergence guarantees in first-order distributed optimization. In the process we derive the following fundamental information …
In this paper, the problem of one-bit compressed sensing (OBCS) is formulated as a problem in probably approximately correct (PAC) learning. It is shown that the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC-) dimension of the set of half-spaces in Rn generated by k-sparse vectors is bounded below by klg(n/k) and above by…
This paper corrects an error in [Keller-Ressel, M. and Steiner T. "Yield curve shapes and the asymptotic short rate distribution in affine one-factor models." Finance and Stochastics 12.2 (2008): 149-172]. The error concerns the correct expression for the boundary between normal and humped yield curve behavior in affin…
LLMs struggle with zero-shot annotation tasks due to model-internalized priors.
problem Impact of model-internalized priors on LLM performance in zero-shot annotation tasks.
method Investigated three dimensions: familiarity, decision stickiness, and susceptibility to misaligned task definitions.
result Nearly two-thirds of zero-shot errors are resistant to correction, with a rescue rate of 34.8%. Definition-Specific Familiarity (DSF) shows a positive association with model performance.
Autonomy and adaptation of machines requires that they be able to measure their own errors. We consider the advantages and limitations of such an approach when a machine has to measure the error in a regression task. How can a machine measure the error of regression sub-components when it does not have the ground truth…
We introduce the speculate-correct method to derive error bounds for local classifiers. Using it, we show that k nearest neighbor classifiers, in spite of their famously fractured decision boundaries, have exponential error bounds with O(sqrt((k + ln n) / n)) error bound range for n in-sample examples.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems sometimes make errors and will make errors in the future, from time to time. These errors are usually unexpected, and can lead to dramatic consequences. Intensive development of AI and its practical applications makes the problem of errors more important. Total re-engineering of the…
This work presents a technique for statistically modeling errors introduced by reduced-order models. The method employs Gaussian-process regression to construct a mapping from a small number of computationally inexpensive `error indicators' to a distribution over the true error. The variance of this distribution can be…