A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study improves dividend discount model using VAR process.
Linear attention in Transformers can be interpreted as dynamic VAR models.
BAVART model combines VAR and BART for non-linear forecasting.
Volatility is a key measure of risk in financial analysis. The high volatility of one financial asset today could affect the volatility of another asset tomorrow. These lagged effects among volatilities - which we call volatility spillovers - are studied using the Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model. We account for the p…
Bayesian VAR model discovers Granger causality with uncertainty-aware binary graphs.
Paper proposes a new sparsity scheme for high-dimensional VAR models.
Paper proposes a new sparse VAR model for high-dimensional time series.
Pricing and hedging rainbow options using Bayesian MS-VAR process.
The Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model is fundamental to the study of multivariate time series. Although VAR models are intensively investigated by many researchers, practitioners often show more interest in analyzing VARX models that incorporate the impact of unmodeled exogenous variables (X) into the VAR. However, sin…
Study examines dynamic relationship between BRICS stocks and cryptocurrencies.
We show Vector Autoregressive Moving Average models with scalar Moving Average components could be estimated by generalized least square (GLS) for each fixed moving average polynomial. The conditional variance of the GLS model is the concentrated covariant matrix of the moving average process. Under GLS the likelihood …
The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility covariance matrix of the time series is modelled via inverted Wishart and singul…
Granger causality has been used for the investigation of the inter-dependence structure of the underlying systems of multi-variate time series. In particular, the direct causal effects are commonly estimated by the conditional Granger causality index (CGCI). In the presence of many observed variables and relatively sho…
MIC improves VAR order selection accuracy.
Vector autoregression (VAR) is a fundamental tool for modeling multivariate time series. However, as the number of component series is increased, the VAR model becomes overparameterized. Several authors have addressed this issue by incorporating regularized approaches, such as the lasso in VAR estimation. Traditional a…
Novel estimation methods improve MAR model accuracy for high-dimensional time series.
The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is a powerful tool in modeling complex time series and has been exploited in many fields. However, fitting high dimensional VAR model poses some unique challenges: On one hand, the dimensionality, caused by modeling a large number of time series and higher order autoregressive proc…
In the paper, we consider the problem of link prediction in time-evolving graphs. We assume that certain graph features, such as the node degree, follow a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and we propose to use this information to improve the accuracy of prediction. Our strategy involves a joint optimization procedure …
Incorporating nonlinearity is paramount to predicting the future states of a dynamical system, its response to shocks, and its underlying causal network. However, most existing methods for causality detection and impulse response, such as Vector Autoregression (VAR), assume linearity and are thus unable to capture the …
The analysis of scientific data of increasing size and complexity requires statistical machine learning methods that are both interpretable and predictive. Union of Intersections (UoI), a recently developed framework, is a two-step approach that separates model selection and model estimation. A linear regression algori…
New method for estimating and testing impulse responses in high-dimensional VAR systems.
While considerable advances have been made in estimating high-dimensional structured models from independent data using Lasso-type models, limited progress has been made for settings when the samples are dependent. We consider estimating structured VAR (vector auto-regressive models), where the structure can be capture…
Study optimizes stock portfolios using network analysis and forecasting.
Study on estimating sparse transition matrix of partially-observed VAR with noisy and sparse data.
CAESar improves risk forecasting by combining VaR and ES estimates.
New method uses G-expectation for financial risk measurement.
Many complex dynamical phenomena can be effectively modeled by a system that switches among a set of conditionally linear dynamical modes. We consider two such models: the switching linear dynamical system (SLDS) and the switching vector autoregressive (VAR) process. Our Bayesian nonparametric approach utilizes a hiera…
Causality graphs are routinely estimated in social sciences, natural sciences, and engineering due to their capacity to efficiently represent the spatiotemporal structure of multivariate data sets in a format amenable for human interpretation, forecasting, and anomaly detection. A popular approach to mathematically for…
Bayesian MS-VAR process improves option pricing models.
Interfacing a kinetic action of a person to an action of a machine system is an important research topic in many application areas. One of the key factors for intimate human-machine interaction is the ability of the control algorithm to detect and classify different user commands with shortest possible latency, thus ma…
Proposes PredVAR model for reduced-dimensional dynamics from noisy data.
We study the problem of learning the support of transition matrix between random processes in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model from samples when a subset of the processes are latent. It is well known that ignoring the effect of the latent processes may lead to very different estimates of the influences among observe…
Enhances FAVAR models with autoencoder for better economic forecasting and interpretability.
The paper develops fast Bayesian methods for estimating huge PVARs with competitive forecasts.
Study bounds VAR model's circuit complexity, showing it's limited to TC^0 circuits.
The paper improves asymmetric causality tests by addressing inefficiencies and statistical significance issues.
We present a new method for forecasting systems of multiple interrelated time series. The method learns the forecast models together with discovering leading indicators from within the system that serve as good predictors improving the forecast accuracy and a cluster structure of the predictive tasks around these. The …
We propose in this work a new family of kernels for variable-length time series. Our work builds upon the vector autoregressive (VAR) model for multivariate stochastic processes: given a multivariate time series x, we consider the likelihood function p_θ(x) of different parameters θin the VAR model as features to descr…
Study shows COVID-19 cases increase stock market volatility in Pakistan.
DBNs improve VaR forecasting compared to traditional models, but SVaR forecasts are conservative.
QBVAR improves oil price forecasting across quantiles, especially for downside risk.
Proposes an evolutionary approach to fitting acyclic VAR models.
Certain theoretical aspects of vector autoregression (VAR) as tools to model economic time series are revised, in particular their capacity to include both short term and long term information. The VAR model, in its error correction form, is derived and the permanent-transitory decomposition of factors proposed by Gonz…
Bayesian BIC for multi-trial data improves VAR model order selection.
Bayesian MS-VAR model for pricing equity-linked life insurance products.
We consider the problem of learning models for forecasting multiple time-series systems together with discovering the leading indicators that serve as good predictors for the system. We model the systems by linear vector autoregressive models (VAR) and link the discovery of leading indicators to inferring sparse graphs…
This paper develops a non-Bayesian methodology to analyze the time-varying structure of international linkages and market efficiency in G7 countries. We consider a non-Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model, and apply it to estimate the joint degree of market efficiency in the sense of Fama (1970, 1…
Estimating hidden processes from non-linear noisy observations is particularly difficult when the parameters of these processes are not known. This paper adopts a machine learning approach to devise variational Bayesian inference for such scenarios. In particular, a random process generated by the autoregressive moving…