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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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3673109145 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Varying Experts

Online L2D algorithm for multiclass classification with varying experts.

problem Handling streaming data, changing expert availability, and shifting expert distribution.
method First online L2D algorithm with O((n+ne)T2/3)O((n+n_e)T^{2/3}) and O((n+ne)T)O((n+n_e)\sqrt{T}) regret guarantees.
result Effective extension of standard L2D to settings with varying expert availability and reliability.

Proposes a Varying-Coefficient MoE model for analyzing dynamic data.

problem Inadequate constant coefficients in MoE models for dynamic settings.
method Varying-Coefficient Mixture of Experts (VCMoE) model with varying coefficients in gating and expert models.
result Established identifiability and consistency of the VCMoE model.

In this note, we present a version of the Thompson sampling algorithm for the problem of online linear generalization with full information (i.e., the experts setting), studied by Kalai and Vempala, 2005. The algorithm uses a Gaussian prior and time-varying Gaussian likelihoods, and we show that it essentially reduces …

2013-11-03abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider the problem of learning to behave optimally in a Markov Decision Process when a reward function is not specified, but instead we have access to a set of demonstrators of varying performance. We assume the demonstrators are classified into one of k ranks, and use ideas from ordinal regression to find a rewar…

2019-07-31abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved time series forecasting with expert loss integration.

problem Enhancing time series forecasting accuracy and efficiency.
method Adaptive Mixture-of-Experts framework with expert-specific loss integration and online learning.
result Significantly improved forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.

PCGS-TF uses a Transformer to adaptively control expert switching in non-stationary environments.

problem Static regret is insufficient for strictly online prediction in non-stationary settings.
method Policy-Controlled Generalized Share (PCGS) with a Transformer as an update controller.
result PCGS-TF achieves the lowest dynamic regret in non-stationary families and expert pools.

L2D-CD learns to defer expert recommendations in causal discovery.

problem Combining expert knowledge with data-driven results in causal discovery when expert recommendations may contradict data.
method Adapting learning-to-defer algorithms for pairwise causal discovery, L2D-CD learns a deferral function to select between expert recommendations and data-driven methods.
result L2D-CD outperforms both causal discovery methods and the expert used in isolation, identifying domains where the expert's performance is strong or weak.

A new method for multi-expert learning-to-defer avoids optimization issues.

problem Optimization issues in multi-expert learning-to-defer systems.
method A decoupled surrogate with a softmax classifier head and independent sigmoid heads per expert.
result First multi-expert L2D guarantee with a constant not growing with the expert pool.

A new method for sparse Gaussian process regression using correlated experts.

problem Sparse Gaussian process regression for large datasets with cubic computational complexity.
method Aggregating predictions from correlated experts to improve scalability and accuracy.
result Superior performance compared to state-of-the-art methods for synthetic and real-world datasets.

Optimal investment strategy with expert opinions in uncertain conditions.

problem Optimizing wealth in a model with unobservable drift and costly expert opinions.
method Embedding into a full information problem, using viscosity solutions and stochastic Perron's method.
result Constructing optimal trading and expert opinion strategies under sufficient regularity conditions.

CoCoAFusE fuses expert predictions to model complex patterns with interpretability and uncertainty.

problem Modeling complex patterns with interpretability and uncertainty quantification.
method Competitive/Collaborative Fusion of Experts (CoCoAFusE) that fuses expert distributions in addition to mixing.
result CoCoAFusE avoids multimodality artifacts and provides tighter credible bounds on the response variable.

Reinforcement learning methods require careful design involving a reward function to obtain the desired action policy for a given task. In the absence of hand-crafted reward functions, prior work on the topic has proposed several methods for reward estimation by using expert state trajectories and action pairs. However…

2018-06-02abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper introduces a method to incorporate expert opinion on observable quantities into statistical models.

problem Tackling the challenge of integrating expert knowledge on observable quantities into statistical models.
method The approach involves updating a prior belief using a loss function that reflects expert opinion on observable quantities.
result The method allows for a flexible specification of expert opinion and is straightforward to implement.

Adversarial MoE learns category-specific models for product search.

problem Variations in product features and importance across categories.
method Mixture of Experts with adversarial regularization and soft gating constraints.
result Improved clustering of gate output vectors and shared experts among similar categories.

Compared to machines, humans are extremely good at classifying images into categories, especially when they possess prior knowledge of the categories at hand. If this prior information is not available, supervision in the form of teaching images is required. To learn categories more quickly, people should see important…

2015-04-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes a novel method to accurately determine the number of experts in Gaussian-gated Gaussian MoE models.

problem Challenges in model selection for MoE models, especially with covariates.
method Introduces a novel extension using dendrograms of mixing measures to estimate the true number of mixture components.
result Achieves optimal convergence rates for parameter estimation and accurately approximates the regression function.

TFPS improves time series forecasting by learning pattern-specific experts.

problem Challenges in forecasting time series data with varying patterns across segments.
method Dual-domain encoder, subspace clustering, pattern-specific experts.
result Significantly improved forecasting accuracy, especially in long-term forecasting.

LEARN-SAM improves RL from sub-optimal demonstrations by localizing expert policies and selectively using demonstrations.

problem Improving RL from sub-optimal or sparse demonstrations.
method Local Ensemble and Reparameterization with Split and Merge of expert policies (LEARN-SAM).
result LEARN-SAM boosts learning speed and accuracy by selectively using demonstrations.

Prediction markets show considerable promise for developing flexible mechanisms for machine learning. Here, machine learning markets for multivariate systems are defined, and a utility-based framework is established for their analysis. This differs from the usual approach of defining static betting functions. It is sho…

2011-06-22abs ↗pdf ↗

New method improves forecast accuracy using CRPS for probabilistic predictions.

problem Improving forecast accuracy for probabilistic predictions, especially in the tails of distributions.
method Introduces a new weighting method for pointwise CRPS learning, optimizing across quantiles.
result Proposed fully adaptive Bernstein online aggregation (BOA) method for pointwise CRPS online learning has optimal convergence properties.

Proposes a new bankruptcy prediction model using Bayesian framework with expert knowledge.

problem Bankruptcy prediction using accounting ratios and statistical models.
method Generative modeling with Expert Bayesian framework.
result Model is either comparable or superior to existing methods with lower False Positive Rate.

PRISM-VQ combines financial priors with vector quantization for better stock prediction.

problem Predicting cross-sectional stock returns is hard due to low signal-to-noise ratios and changing market conditions.
method Integrates expert priors, vector-quantized latent factors, and dynamic factor loadings.
result Consistent improvements in cross-sectional return prediction and portfolio performance.

Meta-learning, or learning to learn, is a machine learning approach that utilizes prior learning experiences to expedite the learning process on unseen tasks. As a data-driven approach, meta-learning requires meta-features that represent the primary learning tasks or datasets, and are estimated traditonally as engineer…

2019-05-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Moirai-MoE improves time series forecasting by automatically specializing tokens without human-defined frequency.

problem Unified training on time series data remains challenging due to heterogeneity and non-stationarity.
method Uses sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers to automatically specialize tokens for diverse time series patterns.
result Moirai-MoE outperforms existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios.

To train good supervised and semi-supervised object classifiers, it is critical that we not waste the time of the human experts who are providing the training labels. Existing active learning strategies can have uneven performance, being efficient on some datasets but wasteful on others, or inconsistent just between ru…

2015-04-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Heteroscedastic regression considering the varying noises among observations has many applications in the fields like machine learning and statistics. Here we focus on the heteroscedastic Gaussian process (HGP) regression which integrates the latent function and the noise function together in a unified non-parametric B…

2018-11-03abs ↗pdf ↗

In the NeurIPS 2018 Artificial Intelligence for Prosthetics challenge, participants were tasked with building a controller for a musculoskeletal model with a goal of matching a given time-varying velocity vector. Top participants were invited to describe their algorithms. In this work, we describe the challenge and pre…

2019-02-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Multi-expert L2D underfits more severely, requiring new methods.

problem Underfitting in multi-expert L2D settings.
method PiCCE (Pick the Confident and Correct Expert), a surrogate-based method.
result PiCCE effectively reduces multi-expert L2D to a single-expert-like problem, resolving underfitting.

LR-Robot accelerates SLRs by combining expert oversight and AI, revealing trends and patterns in financial research.

problem Manual SLRs are impractical due to the scale and complexity of modern financial research.
method Domain experts define taxonomies and constraints, LLMs execute classification, and human evaluation ensures reliability.
result AI can understand and synthesize literature, revealing trends and core research directions.

TENP prunes experts and neurons in Mixture-of-Experts models for efficient deployment.

problem Efficient deployment of large language models constrained by static parameter footprint.
method Structured Trapezoidal ExpertNeuron Pruning (TENP) identifies and retains important experts and neurons.
result DeepSeek model achieves 10% better performance on code generation tasks with 40% expert sparsity.

A method to select important experts for Gaussian processes to balance computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification.

problem Balancing computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification in Gaussian processes for big data.
method Using graphical models to select important experts and aggregate their predictions while ensuring uncertainty quantification.
result Substantially reduces computational cost of aggregating dependent experts while ensuring calibrated uncertainty quantification.

We consider the problem of contextual bandits with stochastic experts, which is a variation of the traditional stochastic contextual bandit with experts problem. In our problem setting, we assume access to a class of stochastic experts, where each expert is a conditional distribution over the arms given a context. We p…

2018-02-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Homeownership boosts wealth and welfare compared to renting, according to new research.

problem The conventional wisdom that renting is better than owning a home.
method Block-bootstrap lifecycle simulation to compare homeownership and renting strategies.
result Homeownership generates more wealth and welfare gains than renting, especially for households with high labor income.

NAMEx merges experts using Nash bargaining for improved performance.

problem Sparse Mixture of Experts merging strategies lack a principled weighting mechanism.
method Reinterpreting expert merging through game theory, introducing Nash Merging and complex momentum.
result NAMEx consistently outperforms competing methods across various tasks and system sizes.

This study compares 6 imitation learning algorithms using a common dataset and hyperparameter budget.

problem Difficulty in comparing different imitation learning algorithms due to varying datasets, base RL algorithms, and evaluation settings.
method Reimplemented and updated 6 different imitation learning algorithms, using a common off-policy algorithm (SAC) and a widely-used dataset (D4RL). Evaluated on a range of expert trajectories.
result GAIL consistently performs well across different sample sizes, while AdRIL performs well with one important hyperparameter to tune and behavioral cloning remains a strong baseline when data is plentiful.

Meta-algorithm optimizes nonstochastic bandits with infinitely many experts.

problem Maximizing reward by choosing actions sequentially from a set of experts.
method Proposed a variant of Exp4.P for infinitely many experts and a meta-algorithm.
result Proved high-probability upper bound of ildeO(iK+KT) ilde{\mathcal{O}} \big( i^*K + \sqrt{KT} \big) on regret.