Mathematical models help keep vaccine prices low.
problem Pricing COVID-19 vaccines to ensure affordability and profitability.
method Optimization and game theory approaches modeling a duopoly market.
result Government can negotiate low prices while manufacturers earn profits.
UK's rapid vaccine rollout linked to reduced COVID-19 mortality.
problem Assessing the impact of accelerated vaccine rollout on public health outcomes.
method Flexible probabilistic models combining interrupted time series analysis and synthetic control methods with multi-output Gaussian processes.
result Substantial reduction in COVID-19 mortality with little effect on transmission rates.
Study examines how COVID-19 vaccine companies' popularity affects their stock prices.
problem Impact of COVID-19 vaccine development and rollout on stock prices and company popularity.
method Used Python and various libraries to analyze Google Trends data and stock prices of five vaccine companies.
result Significant correlation between Google Trend data and stock prices, with post-rollout periods showing a slight negative correlation.
Combines TSP and SC to solve real-world vaccine distribution.
problem Combining TSP and SC for efficient vaccine distribution.
method Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) and machine learning.
result Machine learning approach improves solution efficiency.
Background. In Italy, in recent years, vaccination coverage for key immunizations as MMR has been declining to worryingly low levels. In 2017, the Italian Gov't expanded the number of mandatory immunizations introducing penalties to unvaccinated children's families. During the 2018 general elections campaign, immunizat…
A new method improves estimation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness.
problem Estimating vaccine effectiveness under the test-negative design.
method A doubly robust estimator (TNDDR) using cross-fitting and machine learning.
result The TNDDR estimator is n \sqrt{n} n -consistent, asymptotically normal, and doubly robust. Estimates vaccine effectiveness and immune correlates in TND studies with missing data.
problem Confounding and missing data in TND studies of vaccine effectiveness and immune correlates.
method Targeted maximum likelihood estimation using a semiparametric logistic regression model.
result Valid causal inference of vaccine effectiveness and immune correlates in TND studies with missing exposure data.
In this study, we proposed a convolutional neural network model for gender prediction using English Twitter text as input. Ensemble of proposed model achieved an accuracy at 0.8237 on gender prediction and compared favorably with the state-of-the-art performance in a recent author profiling task. We further leveraged t…
The study uses neural networks to classify and predict coronavirus data.
problem Classifying and predicting coronavirus data from input variables.
method Artificial neural networks with logcosh loss function to classify branches of set-valued mappings.
result Successfully classified and predicted coronavirus data for each German district.
New method targets vaccines for new variants using Thompson sampling.
problem Deciding how to prioritize vaccines for new variants with delayed feedback.
method Partial likelihood Thompson sampling, updating beliefs with partial likelihood.
result Method effectively prioritizes vaccines based on real-world data.
Deep neural networks predict B-cell epitopes for SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2.
problem Accurate prediction of B-cell epitopes for vaccine design.
method Deep neural network model with regularization techniques and key features analysis.
result Overall accuracy of 82% in predicting COVID-19 cases.
Estimates the effect of time-varying treatments using machine learning.
problem Estimating the impact of time-varying treatments over multiple periods.
method Difference-in-Differences framework with double/debiased machine learning.
result Higher vaccination rates reduce COVID-19 mortality after several weeks.
The paper explores fairness, welfare, and equity in personalized pricing across various applications.
problem Interplay of fairness, welfare, and equity in personalized pricing based on customer features.
method Comprehensive literature review and observational metrics without underlying valuation distribution assumptions.
result Personalized pricing can expand access, improve welfare, and increase revenue or budget utilization.
Study relaxes identification assumptions for natural direct effects in non-randomized settings.
problem Identifying causal direct effects under unmeasured confounding.
method Developed relaxed conditions for identifying natural direct effects in non-randomized settings.
result Identified natural direct effect under unmeasured confounding conditions.
Personalized cancer vaccines are envisioned as the next generation rational cancer immunotherapy. The key step in developing personalized therapeutic cancer vaccines is to identify tumor-specific neoantigens that are on the surface of tumor cells. A promising method for this is through de novo peptide sequencing from m…
Deep learning predicts RNA degradation from crowdsourced data.
problem Predicting RNA degradation to improve thermostability.
method Crowdsourced machine learning competition on Kaggle.
result 41% of predictions matched experimental data, and models generalized to longer RNA molecules.
Simulations of infectious disease spread have long been used to understand how epidemics evolve and how to effectively treat them. However, comparatively little attention has been paid to understanding the fairness implications of different treatment strategies -- that is, how might such strategies distribute the expec…
New method learns diverse protein scaffolds for motif design.
problem Designing long, diverse protein scaffolds for specific motifs.
method E(3)-equivariant graph neural network for diffusion modeling.
result First to guarantee conditional sampling from diffusion models.
Study assesses weakly-supervised methods for rare outcomes in medical records.
problem Identifying patients with specific medical conditions using electronic health records.
method Compared three methods (PheNorm, MAP, and sureLDA) in simulations with varying outcomes and silver labels.
result No single method consistently outperformed others, but sureLDA often did well.
New method removes interference bias in causal models.
problem Interference bias impedes causal effect identification in real-world settings.
method Novel definition of causal models with local interference, semi-parametric assumptions.
result True Average Causal Effect can be identified in certain semi-parametric models with local interference.
Flow cytometry is a high-throughput technology used to quantify multiple surface and intracellular markers at the level of a single cell. This enables to identify cell sub-types, and to determine their relative proportions. Improvements of this technology allow to describe millions of individual cells from a blood samp…
New method for fair influence maximization in social networks.
problem Maximizing influence while ensuring fairness across sensitive attributes.
method Co-training an auto-encoder and discriminator to create fair graph embeddings.
result Our method reduces disparity while maintaining competitive influence maximization performance.
Estimates Mozambique's population using remote sensing and microcensus data.
problem Lack of frequent population estimation due to censuses lacking spatio-temporal resolution.
method Combines remote sensing, microcensus data, and transfer learning with publicly available datasets.
result Population predictions improve with footprint area estimation using transfer learning.
Many immunization strategies have been proposed to prevent infectious viruses from spreading through a network. In this study, we propose efficient immunization strategies to prevent a default contagion that might occur in a financial network. An essential difference from the previous studies on immunization strategy i…
Hierarchical NMF organizes COVID-19 literature into a searchable tree.
problem Organizing and searching for relevant COVID-19 research.
method Hierarchical nonnegative matrix factorization.
result Identified 8 major and 52 subtopics related to COVID-19.
Analyzes COVID-19 data to predict mortality, forecast spread, and optimize resource allocation.
problem Challenges in patient triage, treatment, and care management during the pandemic.
method Integrated four-step approach combining descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive analytics.
result Optimized resource allocation and informed policy decisions.
Generalizes causal inference to high-dimensional outcomes.
problem Limited causal inference methods for multivariate outcomes.
method Formulates causal discrepancy tests for nominal variables, uses conditional independence tests.
result Causal CDcorr method improves finite sample validity and power.
Network metrics form a fundamental part of the network analysis toolbox. Used to quantitatively measure different aspects of the network, these metrics can give insights into the underlying network structure and function. In this work, we connect network metrics to modern probabilistic machine learning. We focus on the…
TensorShield defends images from adversarial attacks using tensor decomposition.
problem Adversarial attacks on images can fool deep neural networks.
method Tensor decomposition to find low-rank approximations of images, reducing high-frequency perturbations.
result TensorShield outperforms existing methods like SLQ by 14% against FGSM attacks.
AdvImmune improves certifiable robustness of GNNs against adversarial attacks.
problem Vulnerability of graph neural networks to adversarial attacks.
method Proposes AdvImmune, an algorithm that optimizes with meta-gradient to improve certifiable robustness.
result Remarkably improves the ratio of robust nodes by 12%, 42%, 65% with an affordable immune budget of only 5% edges.
Identifying changes in model parameters is fundamental in machine learning and statistics. However, standard changepoint models are limited in expressiveness, often addressing unidimensional problems and assuming instantaneous changes. We introduce change surfaces as a multidimensional and highly expressive generalizat…
EGR refines and assesses protein complex structures.
problem Improving the accuracy of protein complex 3D structures for drug discovery.
method E(3)-equivariant graph neural network (GNN) for multi-task refinement and assessment.
result EGR achieves state-of-the-art performance in refining and assessing protein complexes.
Heterophily affects GNN robustness; separating ego- and neighbor-embeddings improves defense.
problem The robustness of GNNs to adversarial attacks.
method Formalized relation between heterophily and GNN robustness; empirical analysis; design principles for improved robustness.
result Separating ego- and neighbor-embeddings increases GNN robustness.
Paper proposes Adaptive Pareto Exploration for identifying Pareto optimal arms in multi-objective scenarios.
problem Identifying Pareto optimal arms in multi-objective scenarios with relaxed constraints.
method Adaptive Pareto Exploration strategy for different relaxations of Pareto Set Identification.
result Reduction in sample complexity when identifying at most k Pareto optimal arms.
Study examines how social media sentiment impacts biotech stocks.
problem Understanding the impact of social media on biotech stock prices.
method VADER sentiment analysis, ARIMA, and VAR models were used to forecast stock market performance.
result Complex interplay between tweet sentiment and stock market performance was identified.
In the supervised high dimensional settings with a large number of variables and a low number of individuals, one objective is to select the relevant variables and thus to reduce the dimension. That subspace selection is often managed with supervised tools. However, some data can be missing, compromising the validity o…
New algorithm optimizes interventions under network interference, scaling to large networks.
problem Optimal policy learning under network interference where one individual's treatment affects others.
method Developed a scalable Thompson sampling algorithm for dynamic networks.
result Proved a Bayesian regret bound that is sublinear in network size and rounds.
Statistical models outperform mechanistic models in short-term COVID-19 incidence forecasts.
problem Comparing accuracy of mechanistic vs statistical models for short-term COVID-19 incidence forecasts.
method Empirical comparison of forecasts from mechanistic and statistical models using daily incidence data from six US states.
result Statistical models are at least as accurate as mechanistic models and better capture volatility.
We propose a specialized string kernel for small bio-molecules, peptides and pseudo-sequences of binding interfaces. The kernel incorporates physico-chemical properties of amino acids and elegantly generalize eight kernels, such as the Oligo, the Weighted Degree, the Blended Spectrum, and the Radial Basis Function. We …
Celiac Disease (CD) and Environmental Enteropathy (EE) are common causes of malnutrition and adversely impact normal childhood development. CD is an autoimmune disorder that is prevalent worldwide and is caused by an increased sensitivity to gluten. Gluten exposure destructs the small intestinal epithelial barrier, res…
Research shows a significant increase in stay lengths for digital nomads in the U.S. during and after the pandemic.
problem Shifts in stay lengths for digital nomads during and after the pandemic.
method Analysis of Airbnb reservations data from 2019-2024, using statistical models to quantify changes.
result Mean stay lengths increased from 3.68 to 4.36 nights, stabilizing near 4.07 after 2021, indicating a 10% increase from pre-pandemic levels.
A new method reduces bias in adaptive Lasso estimates.
problem Bias in adaptive Lasso estimates.
method Proximal gradient approach to learn penalty coefficients as decision variables.
result Reduces bias in estimates and encourages arbitrary sparsity structure.
Emergenet predicts animal influenza strain emergence, outperforming current methods.
problem Limited ability to quantitatively assess animal influenza strain emergence.
method Infer digital twin of sequence evolution using 220,151 HA sequences.
result Emergenet predictions outperform WHO seasonal vaccine recommendations and CDC IRAT scores.
Study optimal bidding strategies for digital ads targeting purchases and health campaigns.
problem Optimizing advertising strategies in digital channels.
method Continuous-time models encoding user behavior and auction mechanisms, semi-explicit formulas for optimal bidding.
result Semi-explicit formulas for optimal value and bidding policy for different types of advertising.
Reviews spams are prevalent in e-commerce to manipulate product ranking and customers decisions maliciously. While spams generated based on simple spamming strategy can be detected effectively, hardened spammers can evade regular detectors via more advanced spamming strategies. Previous work gave more attention to evas…
SCIENCE improves prediction intervals for individual causal effects.
problem Wide prediction intervals limit practical utility of causal inference.
method Surrogate-assisted conformal inference for efficient individual causal effects.
result SCIENCE produces more efficient prediction intervals for individual causal effects.
Mathematical model audits social media algorithms to prevent bias.
problem Algorithmic filtering can bias users' decisions and societal norms.
method Formalized mathematical framework for auditing social media algorithms.
result Data-driven statistical auditing procedure to regulate algorithmic bias.
Study analyzes market co-movements in critical mineral investments using change point detection and cross-sectional analysis.
problem Market dynamics in critical mineral investments during significant global events.
method Combines change-point detection (PELT algorithm) with cross-sectional analysis on ESG-ranked ETFs.
result Investors herded during market downturns and shifted to anti-herding after positive news and geopolitical shocks.