A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
ColaBO accelerates optimization with user beliefs.
πBO augments BO with user beliefs for better hyperparameter optimization.
Helps visually impaired users make better decisions by adjusting their observations.
Applying traditional collaborative filtering to digital publishing is challenging because user data is very sparse due to the high volume of documents relative to the number of users. Content based approaches, on the other hand, is attractive because textual content is often very informative. In this paper we describe …
Inferring intent from observed behavior has been studied extensively within the frameworks of Bayesian inverse planning and inverse reinforcement learning. These methods infer a goal or reward function that best explains the actions of the observed agent, typically a human demonstrator. Another agent can use this infer…
Smartphones have been the most popular and widely used devices among means of communication. Nowadays, human activity recognition is possible on mobile devices by embedded sensors, which can be exploited to manage user behavior on mobile devices by predicting user activity. To reach this aim, storing activity character…
The paper uses belief propagation to analyze rankings and partial orders from partial information.
We propose a robust classifier to predict buying intentions based on user behaviour within a large e-commerce website. In this work we compare traditional machine learning techniques with the most advanced deep learning approaches. We show that both Deep Belief Networks and Stacked Denoising auto-Encoders achieved a su…
The remarkable development of deep learning in medicine and healthcare domain presents obvious privacy issues, when deep neural networks are built on users' personal and highly sensitive data, e.g., clinical records, user profiles, biomedical images, etc. However, only a few scientific studies on preserving privacy in …
AI assistants often give convincing but incorrect responses to match user beliefs.
Machine learning is used extensively in recommender systems deployed in products. The decisions made by these systems can influence user beliefs and preferences which in turn affect the feedback the learning system receives - thus creating a feedback loop. This phenomenon can give rise to the so-called "echo chambers" …
Task-oriented dialog presents a difficult challenge encompassing multiple problems including multi-turn language understanding and generation, knowledge retrieval and reasoning, and action prediction. Modern dialog systems typically begin by converting conversation history to a symbolic object referred to as belief sta…
Modeling social network activity through user and topic interaction.
User Simulators are one of the major tools that enable offline training of task-oriented dialogue systems. For this task the Agenda-Based User Simulator (ABUS) is often used. The ABUS is based on hand-crafted rules and its output is in semantic form. Issues arise from both properties such as limited diversity and the i…
New decision-theoretic characterization separates belief and decision posteriors.
The amount of personal data collected in our everyday interactions with connected devices offers great opportunities for innovative services fueled by machine learning, as well as raises serious concerns for the privacy of individuals. In this paper, we propose a massively distributed protocol for a large set of users …
In statistical dialogue management, the dialogue manager learns a policy that maps a belief state to an action for the system to perform. Efficient exploration is key to successful policy optimisation. Current deep reinforcement learning methods are very promising but rely on epsilon-greedy exploration, thus subjecting…
Mathematical model audits social media algorithms to prevent bias.
Generalized belief propagation converges to optimal solutions on graphs with motifs.
Study risk sharing with Lambda VaR under diverse beliefs.
DeepDrummer generates drum loops with human preferences via active learning.
Belief propagation recovers backpropagation results.
Latent-state environments with long horizons, such as those faced by recommender systems, pose significant challenges for reinforcement learning (RL). In this work, we identify and analyze several key hurdles for RL in such environments, including belief state error and small action advantage. We develop a general prin…
Agent decides when to measure latent states in RL to improve efficiency.
New framework analyzes belief evolution in social networks.
We consider the problem of imitation learning from expert demonstrations in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Belief representations, which characterize the distribution over the latent states in a POMDP, have been modeled using recurrent neural networks and probabilistic latent variable models, …
In financial asset management, choosing a portfolio requires balancing returns, risk, exposure, liquidity, volatility and other factors. These concerns are difficult to compare explicitly, with many asset managers using an intuitive or implicit sense of their interaction. We propose a mechanism for learning someone's s…
Deep learning methods have shown great promise in many practical applications, ranging from speech recognition, visual object recognition, to text processing. However, most of the current deep learning methods suffer from scalability problems for large-scale applications, forcing researchers or users to focus on small-…
In deterministic optimization, line searches are a standard tool ensuring stability and efficiency. Where only stochastic gradients are available, no direct equivalent has so far been formulated, because uncertain gradients do not allow for a strict sequence of decisions collapsing the search space. We construct a prob…
In deterministic optimization, line searches are a standard tool ensuring stability and efficiency. Where only stochastic gradients are available, no direct equivalent has so far been formulated, because uncertain gradients do not allow for a strict sequence of decisions collapsing the search space. We construct a prob…
Improved error correction using neural networks and belief propagation.
NBF combines deep learning with classical filtering for better belief tracking.
This thesis investigates belief propagation's performance in graphical models with loops.
FORBES learns flexible belief states for POMDPs using normalizing flows.
This work explores a social learning problem with agents having nonidentical noise variances and mismatched beliefs. We consider an -agent binary hypothesis test in which each agent sequentially makes a decision based not only on a private observation, but also on preceding agents' decisions. In addition, the agents…
New algorithm optimizes for long-term user satisfaction in delayed reward settings.
Belief Propagation algorithms are instruments used broadly to solve graphical model optimization and statistical inference problems. In the general case of a loopy Graphical Model, Belief Propagation is a heuristic which is quite successful in practice, even though its empirical success, typically, lacks theoretical gu…
Model captures decision-making under bounded rationality with prior beliefs and market feedback.
By elaborating on the notion of linear belief functions (Dempster 1990; Liu 1996), we propose an elementary approach to knowledge representation for expert systems using linear belief functions. We show how to use basic matrices to represent market information and financial knowledge, including complete ignorance, stat…
This paper optimizes reinsurance contracts with belief differences between insurer and reinsurer.
Deep belief networks are a powerful way to model complex probability distributions. However, learning the structure of a belief network, particularly one with hidden units, is difficult. The Indian buffet process has been used as a nonparametric Bayesian prior on the directed structure of a belief network with a single…
In this paper I empirically investigate prediction markets for binary options. Advocates of prediction markets have suggested that asset prices are consistent estimators of the "true" probability of a state of the world being realized. I test whether the market reaches a "consensus." I find little evidence for converge…
New algorithm reduces communication in distributed learning by sharing compressed beliefs.
Matrix factorization is a key component of collaborative filtering-based recommendation systems because it allows us to complete sparse user-by-item ratings matrices under a low-rank assumption that encodes the belief that similar users give similar ratings and that similar items garner similar ratings. This paradigm h…
New -BP algorithm improves belief propagation for graphs with loops.
New group testing method uses Belief Propagation for accurate screening.
Belief propagation (BP) can do exact inference in loop-free graphs, but its performance could be poor in graphs with loops, and the understanding of its solution is limited. This work gives an interpretable belief propagation rule that is actually minimization of a localized -divergence. We term this algorithm as $α…
The paper explains stock market predictability through a model of heterogeneous beliefs.