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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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9182635 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for Unobserved Confounding

KRCD detects unobserved confounders in nonlinear observational data.

problem Detecting unobserved confounders in nonlinear observational studies.
method Kernel Regression Confounder Detection (KRCD) using reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
result KRCD outperforms existing methods and achieves superior computational efficiency.

A new method uses randomized trials to estimate the strength of unobserved confounding.

problem Unobserved confounding compromises causal conclusions from non-randomized studies.
method Designs a statistical test to detect unobserved confounding strength and estimates a lower bound.
result Estimates an asymptotically valid lower bound on unobserved confounding strength.

Valid causal inference with unobserved confounding in high-dimensional settings.

problem Estimating causal effects with unobserved confounders in high-dimensional data.
method Proposes methods to estimate causal effects with valid confidence intervals in the presence of unobserved confounders and high-dimensional nuisance models.
result Valid semiparametric inference can be obtained with unobserved confounding, and uncertainty intervals are proposed.

New method estimates policy performance under unobserved confounding.

problem Estimating policy performance when decisions depend on unobserved variables.
method Developed worst-case bounds for robust OPE under unobserved confounding.
result Efficient procedure for computing worst-case bounds, proving statistical consistency.

New method estimates treatment effects over time with unobserved confounders.

problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data with unobserved confounders.
method Sequential Deconfounder using Gaussian process latent variable model.
result Unbiased estimates of individualized treatment responses over time.

New method removes hidden confounders for unbiased treatment effect estimation.

problem Bias in treatment effect estimation due to unobserved confounders.
method Proposes a new debiased estimation approach via SVD to handle heterogeneous confounding.
result Established rate of convergence for the estimator under different noise conditions.

New method identifies causal effects with categorical unobserved confounders.

problem Estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Mixture learning and tensor decomposition for consistent estimation.
result Causal effects are identifiable with categorical unobserved confounders under suitable conditions.

Proposes ρρ-GNF for sensitivity analysis of unobserved confounding.

problem Sensitivity analysis of unobserved confounding in observational studies.
method Copulas and normalizing flows to estimate average causal effect (ACE) as a function of unobserved confounding strength.
result Develops ρcurveρ_{curve} to provide bounds for ACE and identify confounding strength required to nullify ACE.

New bounds assess policy evaluation under unobserved confounders, showing model-based methods are more effective.

problem Policy evaluation under unobserved confounders in uncertain causal environments.
method Developed worst-case bounds for sensitivity to unobserved confounders, demonstrating model-based methods are more effective.
result Model-based approaches with robust MDPs provide sharper lower bounds for policy evaluation.

Proposes a method to assess unobserved confounding effects in causal inference.

problem Assessing unobserved confounding in causal inference studies.
method Copula-based normalizing flows with sensitivity parameter ρρ.
result Estimates average causal effect (ACE) as a function of unobserved confounding strength.

The paper tackles robust domain generalization by accounting for unobserved confounders.

problem Learning robust, generalizable models from multiple datasets in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Defines a new invariance property for causal solutions, connects it to distributionally robust optimization, and incorporates regularization to encourage partial equality of error derivatives.
result Demonstrates the empirical effectiveness of the approach on healthcare data from various modalities.

Improved method for unbiased causal discovery in presence of unobserved confounding.

problem Unbiased data synthesis for causal discovery algorithms in the presence of unobserved confounding.
method Explicit block-hierarchical ancestral sampling to address limitations of implicit parameterization.
result Our approach fully covers the space of causal models, including those generated by implicit parameterization.

ContiVAE estimates individual dose-response curves from unobserved confounders using observational data.

problem Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments considering unobserved confounders.
method Variational auto-encoder with a Tilted Gaussian prior distribution modeling hidden confounders as latent variables.
result ContiVAE outperforms existing methods by up to 62% in predicting individual dose-response curves.

This work highlights problems with off-policy estimation in recommender systems due to unobserved confounders.

problem Evaluation of recommender systems under unobserved confounders.
method Policy-based estimators and characterisation of statistical bias due to confounding.
result Naive propensity estimation under confounding leads to severely biased metric estimates.

Estimates CATE under hidden confounding, accounting for bias and ignorance.

problem Learning CATE from high-dimensional data with unobserved confounders introduces bias and ignorance.
method Parametric interval estimator that accounts for hidden confounding and underrepresented samples.
result Estimator converges to tight bounds on CATE when there may be unobserved confounding.

We study the problem of learning personalized decision policies from observational data while accounting for possible unobserved confounding. Previous approaches, which assume unconfoundedness, i.e., that no unobserved confounders affect both the treatment assignment as well as outcome, can lead to policies that introd…

2018-05-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Single proxy variable helps estimate causal effects from confounders.

problem Estimating causal effects from treatment to outcome when unobserved confounders are present.
method Assumes a single, potentially multi-dimensional proxy variable of the unobserved confounder and a known mechanism generating the proxy from the confounder. Proves causal effects are identifiable under completeness assumption.
result Causal effects are identifiable under SPICE assumption.

Study tackles OPE in confounded settings, estimating policy value from proxies.

problem Difficulty in OPE due to unobserved confounders in infinite-horizon RL.
method Two-stage approach: estimating stationary distribution ratios and combining optimal balancing.
result Policy value can be identified from off-policy data with proxies and latent variable model.

Paper tackles distribution shifts in prediction models with unobserved confounding.

problem Distribution shifts in prediction models with unobserved confounding.
method Linear structural causal model, invariant covariate representations, data-driven representation learning method.
result Optimizes for a lower-dimensional linear subspace and a prediction model confined to that subspace, achieving nearly ideal gap between target and source risk.

Method learns causal effects from multiple interventions in presence of unobserved confounders.

problem Disentangling causal effects from sets of interventions in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Non-linear structural causal models with additive, multivariate Gaussian noise; algorithm that learns causal model parameters by pooling data from different regimes and maximizing combined likelihood.
result Identification proofs demonstrate that causal effects of single interventions can be learned from sets of interventions, even with unobserved confounders.

We identify causal models with unobserved confounding using bijective generation mechanisms.

problem Identifying causal relationships with unobserved confounders.
method Establish counterfactual identifiability for BGMs and propose a learning method.
result Learned BGMs enable efficient counterfactual estimation.

Kernel methods identify treatment effects with unobserved confounding using negative controls.

problem Learning causal relationships with unmeasured confounding.
method Kernel ridge regression algorithms for nonparametric treatment effects.
result Uniform consistency and finite sample rates of convergence proved.

New method for robust policy evaluation in offline reinforcement learning with sequentially exogenous unobserved confounders.

problem Offline reinforcement learning in domains with unobserved confounders.
method Orthogonalized robust fitted-Q-iteration with closed-form solutions and bias-correction.
result Effective in simulations and real-world data, improving robustness and computational ease.

The paper shows how to audit fairness in decisions with hidden risk factors.

problem Estimating fairness in decisions influenced by hidden, unobservable risk factors.
method Derives unbiased estimates of risk using historical data and audits existing decision-making systems.
result One can compute meaningful bounds on treatment rates for high-risk individuals, even with hidden confounders.

New model infers causal relationships from spatio-temporal data, even with unobserved confounders.

problem Challenges in inferring causal relationships from spatio-temporal data due to unobserved confounders.
method Spatio-Temporal Hierarchical Causal Models (ST-HCMs) that extend hierarchical causal modeling to the spatio-temporal domain, using the Spatio-Temporal Collapse Theorem.
result Validated the effectiveness of ST-HCMs on both synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating robust causal inference in complex dynamic systems.

Bounds on treatment effect sensitivity in causal reasoning using Hölder's inequality.

problem Estimating treatment effects in presence of unobserved confounders.
method Using Hölder's inequality, derived bounds on confounding bias based on unmeasured confounding strength.
result Bounds are tight under specific conditions of independence between U and T/Y.

Confounding biases recommender systems, even when data seems fully observed.

problem Unmeasured features influencing both treatment and outcome in recommender systems.
method Illustrations and simulation studies showing how common practices introduce confounding.
result Standard recommender system practices can introduce confounding, reducing performance.

Framework tests CATE homogeneity across trials and evaluates confounding.

problem Assessing treatment effect consistency across randomized and observational studies.
method Leverages multiple randomized trials to test CATE homogeneity and compares with observational data.
result Identifies potential confounding and effect heterogeneity in treatment effects.

We consider causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding. We study the case where a proxy is available for the unobserved confounding in the form of a network connecting the units. For example, the link structure of a social network carries information about its members. We show how to effectively use the…

2019-02-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Unobserved confounding is a major hurdle for causal inference from observational data. Confounders---the variables that affect both the causes and the outcome---induce spurious non-causal correlations between the two. Wang & Blei (2018) lower this hurdle with "the blessings of multiple causes," where the correlation st…

2019-05-30abs ↗pdf ↗

New framework for estimating treatment effects in observational studies.

problem Estimating average treatment effects in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Distributionally robust optimization, sensitivity models.
result Sharp bounds on average treatment effects under distributional assumptions.

Unified framework for causal inference with reliable uncertainty quantification.

problem Causal inference under unobserved confounding with unreliable uncertainty quantification.
method Deconditional Gaussian Process (DGP) framework for uncertainty-aware causal learning.
result Strong predictive performance and informative uncertainty quantification.

Paper adapts DML for panel data, addressing unobserved heterogeneity.

problem Estimating causal effects with panel data and unobserved heterogeneity.
method Adapting double/debiased machine learning (DML) for panel data with predictive models based on correlated random effects.
result Predictive models based on correlated random effects within DML lead to accurate coefficient estimates.

Proposes efficient bounds for causal effect estimation under weak confounding.

problem Estimating causal effects with weakly confounded variables.
method Develops an efficient linear program to derive upper and lower bounds on causal effect under small entropy of unobserved confounders.
result Bounds are consistent and tighter for weakly confounded variables.

New methods for evaluating and optimizing policies in offline RL with unobserved confounders.

problem Evaluating and optimizing policies in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Characterized settings and algorithms for consistent value estimates and lower bounds, with sample complexity guarantees.
result Proved local convergence guarantees for offline policy improvement.

This paper corrects climate model biases using a factor model approach.

problem Systematic biases in GCM outputs due to unobserved confounders.
method Factor model approach to learn latent confounders from historical data and apply them to enhance bias correction.
result Significant improvements in the accuracy of precipitation outputs.

Estimates long-term effects from short-term experiments and observational data with unobserved confounders.

problem Estimating long-term causal effects from short-term experiments and long-term observational data with unobserved confounding.
method Combining regression residuals with short-term experimental outcomes to create an instrumental variable for estimating long-term causal effects.
result The estimator is unbiased and its variance is analytically studied.