Paper identifies unobserved variables from observable data.
problem Missing variables in empirical studies.
method Function mapping from observables to unobservables based on joint distribution.
result Uniqueness of latent values in each observation.
KRCD detects unobserved confounders in nonlinear observational data.
problem Detecting unobserved confounders in nonlinear observational studies.
method Kernel Regression Confounder Detection (KRCD) using reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
result KRCD outperforms existing methods and achieves superior computational efficiency.
Valid causal inference with unobserved confounding in high-dimensional settings.
problem Estimating causal effects with unobserved confounders in high-dimensional data.
method Proposes methods to estimate causal effects with valid confidence intervals in the presence of unobserved confounders and high-dimensional nuisance models.
result Valid semiparametric inference can be obtained with unobserved confounding, and uncertainty intervals are proposed.
A new method uses randomized trials to estimate the strength of unobserved confounding.
problem Unobserved confounding compromises causal conclusions from non-randomized studies.
method Designs a statistical test to detect unobserved confounding strength and estimates a lower bound.
result Estimates an asymptotically valid lower bound on unobserved confounding strength.
New method estimates treatment effects over time with unobserved confounders.
problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data with unobserved confounders.
method Sequential Deconfounder using Gaussian process latent variable model.
result Unbiased estimates of individualized treatment responses over time.
New method scores DAGs by identifying unobserved confounding.
problem Unobserved confounding complicates causal discovery.
method Score-based causal discovery algorithm that accounts for unobserved confounding.
result Sparse linear Gaussian DAGs can be recovered from observed data.
New method recovers predictions from unobservable source subpopulation in binary classification.
problem Challenging binary classification with unobservable subpopulation in source domain.
method Distribution matching method to estimate subpopulation proportions, rigorous derivation of prediction models.
result Our method outperforms naive benchmarks in synthetic and real-world datasets.
New method estimates policy performance under unobserved confounding.
problem Estimating policy performance when decisions depend on unobserved variables.
method Developed worst-case bounds for robust OPE under unobserved confounding.
result Efficient procedure for computing worst-case bounds, proving statistical consistency.
CDVAE estimates treatment effects over time by accounting for unobserved variables.
problem Estimating treatment effects over time in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder (CDVAE) that addresses unconfoundedness and unobserved heterogeneity.
result CDVAE outperforms existing methods in estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs).
Paper tackles unobserved confounding in human-AI collaborations.
problem Unobserved confounding undermines human-AI collaboration effectiveness.
method Combines sensitivity analysis from causal inference with AI-driven statistical modeling.
result Enhances robustness and reliability of collaborative outcomes.
Proposes ρ-GNF for sensitivity analysis of unobserved confounding.
problem Sensitivity analysis of unobserved confounding in observational studies.
method Copulas and normalizing flows to estimate average causal effect (ACE) as a function of unobserved confounding strength.
result Develops ρcurve to provide bounds for ACE and identify confounding strength required to nullify ACE. Paper adapts DML for panel data, addressing unobserved heterogeneity.
problem Estimating causal effects with panel data and unobserved heterogeneity.
method Adapting double/debiased machine learning (DML) for panel data with predictive models based on correlated random effects.
result Predictive models based on correlated random effects within DML lead to accurate coefficient estimates.
New method removes hidden confounders for unbiased treatment effect estimation.
problem Bias in treatment effect estimation due to unobserved confounders.
method Proposes a new debiased estimation approach via SVD to handle heterogeneous confounding.
result Established rate of convergence for the estimator under different noise conditions.
The paper tackles robust domain generalization by accounting for unobserved confounders.
problem Learning robust, generalizable models from multiple datasets in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Defines a new invariance property for causal solutions, connects it to distributionally robust optimization, and incorporates regularization to encourage partial equality of error derivatives.
result Demonstrates the empirical effectiveness of the approach on healthcare data from various modalities.
Improved method for unbiased causal discovery in presence of unobserved confounding.
problem Unbiased data synthesis for causal discovery algorithms in the presence of unobserved confounding.
method Explicit block-hierarchical ancestral sampling to address limitations of implicit parameterization.
result Our approach fully covers the space of causal models, including those generated by implicit parameterization.
New framework for estimating treatment effects in observational studies.
problem Estimating average treatment effects in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Distributionally robust optimization, sensitivity models.
result Sharp bounds on average treatment effects under distributional assumptions.
New method identifies causal effects with categorical unobserved confounders.
problem Estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Mixture learning and tensor decomposition for consistent estimation.
result Causal effects are identifiable with categorical unobserved confounders under suitable conditions.
The paper shows how to audit fairness in decisions with hidden risk factors.
problem Estimating fairness in decisions influenced by hidden, unobservable risk factors.
method Derives unbiased estimates of risk using historical data and audits existing decision-making systems.
result One can compute meaningful bounds on treatment rates for high-risk individuals, even with hidden confounders.
Develops Austen plots for assessing bias from unobserved confounding in observational studies.
problem Bias in causal estimates due to unobserved confounding.
method Formalizes confounding strength, uses Austen plots to visualize and quantify bias.
result Allows domain experts to assess the plausibility of strong confounders.
Causal discovery predicts unobserved joint statistics from observed data.
problem Inferring properties of unobserved joint distributions from observed data.
method Infer causal models from observed data to predict statistical properties of unobserved sets.
result Sparse causal graphs can be more useful than dense ones in predicting unobserved joint distributions.
New bounds assess policy evaluation under unobserved confounders, showing model-based methods are more effective.
problem Policy evaluation under unobserved confounders in uncertain causal environments.
method Developed worst-case bounds for sensitivity to unobserved confounders, demonstrating model-based methods are more effective.
result Model-based approaches with robust MDPs provide sharper lower bounds for policy evaluation.
In many applications of network analysis, it is important to distinguish between observed and unobserved factors affecting network structure. To this end, we develop spectral estimators for both unobserved blocks and the effect of covariates in stochastic blockmodels. On the theoretical side, we establish asymptotic no…
Proposes a method to assess unobserved confounding effects in causal inference.
problem Assessing unobserved confounding in causal inference studies.
method Copula-based normalizing flows with sensitivity parameter ρ. result Estimates average causal effect (ACE) as a function of unobserved confounding strength.
Intact-VAE estimates treatment effects with latent confounders.
problem Estimating treatment effects under unobserved confounding.
method Intact-VAE, a VAE variant, models latent confounders to identify treatment effects.
result Intact-VAE is a consistent estimator of treatment effects under certain settings.
This work restricts hidden cardinality in causal models to infer causal relations.
problem Causal relations between variables with a common unobserved cause cannot be directly inferred.
method Derive inequality constraints from d-separation in causal models with known cardinalities of unobserved variables.
result Inference of causal relations is possible with additional assumptions about cardinalities.
We develop a cross-sectional research design to identify causal effects in the presence of unobservable heterogeneity without instruments. When units are dense in physical space, it may be sufficient to regress the "spatial first differences" (SFD) of the outcome on the treatment and omit all covariates. The identifyin…
This work highlights problems with off-policy estimation in recommender systems due to unobserved confounders.
problem Evaluation of recommender systems under unobserved confounders.
method Policy-based estimators and characterisation of statistical bias due to confounding.
result Naive propensity estimation under confounding leads to severely biased metric estimates.
Method learns causal effects from multiple interventions in presence of unobserved confounders.
problem Disentangling causal effects from sets of interventions in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Non-linear structural causal models with additive, multivariate Gaussian noise; algorithm that learns causal model parameters by pooling data from different regimes and maximizing combined likelihood.
result Identification proofs demonstrate that causal effects of single interventions can be learned from sets of interventions, even with unobserved confounders.
We identify causal models with unobserved confounding using bijective generation mechanisms.
problem Identifying causal relationships with unobserved confounders.
method Establish counterfactual identifiability for BGMs and propose a learning method.
result Learned BGMs enable efficient counterfactual estimation.
Introduces an unobservable intrinsic electricity price to link storage theory with risk premium.
problem Connecting storage theory with risk premium in electricity markets.
method Introduces an unobservable intrinsic electricity price and derives prices for various contracts.
result Finds an overall negative risk premium in empirical analysis.
ContiVAE estimates individual dose-response curves from unobserved confounders using observational data.
problem Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments considering unobserved confounders.
method Variational auto-encoder with a Tilted Gaussian prior distribution modeling hidden confounders as latent variables.
result ContiVAE outperforms existing methods by up to 62% in predicting individual dose-response curves.
We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data with unobserved confounders. The CATE function maps baseline covariates to individual causal effect predictions and is key for personalized assessments. Recent work has focused on how to learn CATE under unconfoundedne…
This paper examines a heterogeneous beliefs model in which there is a process that is only partially observed by the agents. The economy contains a risky asset producing dividends continuously in time. The dividends are observed by the agents. The dividends are assumed to be a known function of some other unobserved pr…
New method for robust policy evaluation in offline reinforcement learning with sequentially exogenous unobserved confounders.
problem Offline reinforcement learning in domains with unobserved confounders.
method Orthogonalized robust fitted-Q-iteration with closed-form solutions and bias-correction.
result Effective in simulations and real-world data, improving robustness and computational ease.
The problem of state estimation for unobservable distribution systems is considered. A deep learning approach to Bayesian state estimation is proposed for real-time applications. The proposed technique consists of distribution learning of stochastic power injection, a Monte Carlo technique for the training of a deep ne…
New design detects confounders from treatment intent in ICU data.
problem Unobserved confounding in observational ICU data.
method Querying human experts to identify unobserved confounders.
result Demonstrates feasibility of detecting confounders from EHRs.
Kernel methods identify treatment effects with unobserved confounding using negative controls.
problem Learning causal relationships with unmeasured confounding.
method Kernel ridge regression algorithms for nonparametric treatment effects.
result Uniform consistency and finite sample rates of convergence proved.
New method tackles OOD robustness with a single additional variable.
problem Out-of-distribution generalization with unobserved confounders.
method Identifiability assumptions using a single additional variable.
result Superior empirical performance on benchmark tasks.
We consider causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding. We study the case where a proxy is available for the unobserved confounding in the form of a network connecting the units. For example, the link structure of a social network carries information about its members. We show how to effectively use the…
The paper addresses misspecification in econometric models of discrete unobserved heterogeneity.
problem Misspecification in econometric models of discrete unobserved heterogeneity.
method Generalizing previous approaches to allow multiple latent variables, developing inference results for a k-means style estimator, and proposing information criteria for model selection.
result Over-fitting can be severe in k-means style estimators when the number of clusters is over-specified.
Study causal effects on humans in mixed human-AI systems with unobserved unit types.
problem Estimating causal effects on humans in systems with unobserved unit types and interaction networks.
method Assumed human-AI prior, causal message passing (CMP) framework, subpopulation analysis.
result Consistently recover human-specific causal effects using subpopulations with varying expected human composition and treatment exposure.
New methods improve inference after prediction without strong model assumptions.
problem Improper inference after prediction can lead to invalid results.
method Angelopoulos et al. (2023) and Wang et al. (2020) propose corrections to inference.
result Angelopoulos et al. method controls type 1 error and provides correct coverage.
iTimER learns from reconstruction errors to represent irregularly sampled time series.
problem Learning from irregularly sampled time series with missing data.
method iTimER models reconstruction errors as a proxy for unobserved values, using a mixup strategy and a Wasserstein metric.
result iTimER outperforms state-of-the-art methods in classification, interpolation, and forecasting tasks.
Paper tackles distribution shifts in prediction models with unobserved confounding.
problem Distribution shifts in prediction models with unobserved confounding.
method Linear structural causal model, invariant covariate representations, data-driven representation learning method.
result Optimizes for a lower-dimensional linear subspace and a prediction model confined to that subspace, achieving nearly ideal gap between target and source risk.
Simpson's paradox can invalidate the results of medical trials if an unobserved variable is considered.
problem The validity of medical trial results can be invalidated by an unobserved confounding variable.
method Simulated controlled trials to demonstrate the paradox.
result The results of a trial can be reversed by including an unobserved confounding variable.
Unified framework for causal inference with reliable uncertainty quantification.
problem Causal inference under unobserved confounding with unreliable uncertainty quantification.
method Deconditional Gaussian Process (DGP) framework for uncertainty-aware causal learning.
result Strong predictive performance and informative uncertainty quantification.
New model infers causal relationships from spatio-temporal data, even with unobserved confounders.
problem Challenges in inferring causal relationships from spatio-temporal data due to unobserved confounders.
method Spatio-Temporal Hierarchical Causal Models (ST-HCMs) that extend hierarchical causal modeling to the spatio-temporal domain, using the Spatio-Temporal Collapse Theorem.
result Validated the effectiveness of ST-HCMs on both synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating robust causal inference in complex dynamic systems.
Single proxy variable helps estimate causal effects from confounders.
problem Estimating causal effects from treatment to outcome when unobserved confounders are present.
method Assumes a single, potentially multi-dimensional proxy variable of the unobserved confounder and a known mechanism generating the proxy from the confounder. Proves causal effects are identifiable under completeness assumption.
result Causal effects are identifiable under SPICE assumption.