A method constructs a stochastic surrogate from dimensionality reduction results for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification.
problem High-dimensional uncertainty quantification with physics-based models.
method Constructs a stochastic surrogate model from dimensionality reduction results.
result Preserves convenience of sequential dimensionality reduction and Gaussian process regression while overcoming limitations.
Maximal Rate of Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction selects simulations to reduce uncertainty efficiently.
problem Efficiently estimating quantities of interest from multi-fidelity simulations.
method Bayesian sequential strategy that maximizes the ratio of expected uncertainty reduction to simulation cost.
result MR-SUR strategy unifies and provides principled approaches to develop new methods.
A new method for reducing model complexity using neural active manifolds.
problem Uncertainty quantification in computationally expensive models.
method Autoencoders and surrogate models to discover a neural active manifold.
result Neural active manifolds reduce model variance in multifidelity sampling.
RMFGP combines multi-fidelity models for efficient uncertainty quantification.
problem Efficiently infer quantities of interest with limited high-fidelity data.
method Rotated multi-fidelity Gaussian process with dimension reduction and Bayesian active learning.
result RMFGP model improves accuracy and efficiency in high-dimensional problems.
A new method reduces complexity and uncertainty in neural networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in complex neural networks.
method Condensed Stein Variational Gradient Descent (cSVGD) method.
result Condensed SVGD provides uncertainty quantification on parameters.
Select-DC reduces GFLOPS for uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
problem Computational inefficiency in estimating model uncertainty for low-latency applications.
method Select-DC uses a subset of layers to model epistemic uncertainty with MCDC, reducing GFLOPS.
result Significant reduction in GFLOPS required for uncertainty estimation with marginal performance loss.
Bayesian Neural Networks improve geophysical model ensembles with reduced uncertainty.
problem Improving geophysical model projections and uncertainty quantification.
method Developed a Bayesian Neural Network ensemble strategy for geophysical models.
result Bayesian Neural Network ensemble outperforms existing methods in ozone prediction.
Bayesian model fuses multiple classifiers with explicit correlation modeling.
problem Combining outputs of multiple classifiers with explicit correlation.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model with correlated Dirichlet distribution.
result Fused classifier performance can be Bayes optimal even for highly correlated base classifiers.
We present a technique to perform dimensionality reduction on data that is subject to uncertainty. Our method is a generalization of traditional principal component analysis (PCA) to multivariate probability distributions. In comparison to non-linear methods, linear dimensionality reduction techniques have the advantag…
PCENet reduces uncertainty in high-dimensional data efficiently.
problem Uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional data is computationally expensive.
method Two-stage learning process: variational autoencoder for low-dimensional representation, polynomial chaos expansion for mapping.
result Model captures system dynamics, learns under uncertainty, estimates high-dimensional data uncertainty, matches output distribution moments.
Nonparametric adaptive robust control tackles model uncertainty in stochastic processes.
problem Model uncertainty in stochastic processes.
method Adaptive robust control methodology using online learning and uncertainty reduction, empirical distribution, and Lagrangian duality.
result Nonparametric adaptive robust control approach is preferable to traditional robust frameworks.
Bayesian neural networks improve uncertainty quantification in non-linear dimensionality reduction.
problem Current neural network models lack adequate uncertainty quantification.
method Deploy Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms for Bayesian inference in ANN models with latent variables.
result New research directions are needed due to fundamental challenges in neural networks with latent variables.
We present an adaptive approach for valuing the European call option on assets with stochastic volatility. The essential feature of the method is a reduction of uncertainty in latent volatility due to a Bayesian learning procedure. Starting from a discrete-time stochastic volatility model, we derive a recurrence equati…
A new Bayesian optimization method tackles constrained optimization with uncertainties.
problem Optimizing functions with uncertain constraints.
method Bayesian optimization with a new acquisition criterion.
result The new criterion optimizes both objective function improvement and constraint reliability.
Paper reduces uncertainty in predictive models using neural networks and Gaussian processes.
problem High epistemic uncertainty in predictive models.
method Adaptive sampling approach with prediction interval-generation neural networks and Gaussian processes.
result Method consistently converges faster to minimum epistemic uncertainty levels.
New method uses sparse random features for crashworthiness analysis.
problem Efficient surrogate modelling for uncertainty quantification.
method Sparse Random Features combined with self-supervised dimensionality reduction.
result Superiority over state-of-the-art techniques in crashworthiness analysis.
Assistive robots can potentially improve the quality of life and personal independence of elderly people by supporting everyday life activities. To guarantee a safe and intuitive interaction between human and robot, human intentions need to be recognized automatically. As humans communicate their intentions multimodall…
Semi-supervised clustering seeks to augment traditional clustering methods by incorporating side information provided via human expertise in order to increase the semantic meaningfulness of the resulting clusters. However, most current methods are \emph{passive} in the sense that the side information is provided before…
Beam search improves UQ in LLMs by reducing duplicates and variance.
problem Peaked distributions in multinomial sampling lead to duplicates and high variance in uncertainty estimates.
method Employ beam search to generate candidates for consistency-based UQ, providing a theoretical lower bound and empirical evaluation.
result Beam search achieves smaller error than multinomial sampling, leading to state-of-the-art UQ performance.
This paper tackles high-dimensional uncertainty quantification with semi-supervised learning.
problem High-dimensional uncertainty quantification due to the curse of dimensionality.
method Autoencoder for dimension reduction, DFN for mapping and reconstruction, GP for surrogate modeling, semi-supervised learning for accuracy.
result The framework effectively reduces uncertainty quantification and reliability analysis for high-dimensional problems.
Deep learning calibrates CO2 storage formations from seismic and well data.
problem Uncertainty in CO2 storage formation properties.
method Two deep learning models for well and seismic data, integrated into MCMC history matching.
result Significant uncertainty reduction in key parameters and accurate CO2 plume predictions.
Combines Gaussian process and Geometric Harmonics for better uncertainty estimation.
problem Uncertainty estimation in kernel-based methods.
method Combines Gaussian process and Geometric Harmonics.
result Alternative interpretations of uncertainty and accelerated Bayesian Optimization.
Data assimilation for subsurface flow using latent diffusion models shows that ensemble Kalman methods may overestimate posterior uncertainty, while Monte Carlo sampling is more reliable.
problem Data assimilation for subsurface flow
method Ensemble Kalman smoother and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling
result Monte Carlo sampling is more reliable than ensemble Kalman methods
Enhances reinforcement learning uncertainty estimation with a generalized Gaussian error model.
problem Inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation in conventional uncertainty-aware TD learning.
method Introduces a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning, incorporating higher-order moments, particularly kurtosis, to improve uncertainty estimation and mitigation.
result Significant performance gains in policy gradient algorithms with the proposed framework.
Model-free reinforcement learning based methods such as Proximal Policy Optimization, or Q-learning typically require thousands of interactions with the environment to approximate the optimum controller which may not always be feasible in robotics due to safety and time consumption. Model-based methods such as PILCO or…
Global sensitivity analysis improves BNN hyperparameter selection for accurate uncertainty quantification.
problem Difficulties in obtaining accurate uncertainty quantification with Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs).
method Global sensitivity analysis of BNN performance under varying hyperparameter settings.
result Many hyperparameters interact to affect both predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
This work optimizes statistical inference with neural networks for high-energy physics data.
problem Optimal dimensionality reduction with minimal loss of information in the presence of systematic uncertainties.
method Neural network optimization based on binned Poisson likelihoods with nuisance parameters.
result Estimates of parameters of interest close to optimal.
We study a notion of good-deal hedging, that corresponds to good-deal valuation for generalized good-deal constraints. Under model uncertainty about the market prices of risk of hedging assets, a robust approach leads to a reduction or even elimination of a speculative component in good-deal hedging, which is shown to …
Improves inverse uncertainty quantification for time-dependent data using PCA and deep neural networks.
problem Efficiently quantify model input uncertainties from time-dependent experimental data.
method Functional PCA for dimensionality reduction, deep neural networks for surrogate modeling, Bayesian neural networks for uncertainty estimation.
result The proposed method reduces the computational cost and improves the agreement with experimental data.
Well-established methods for the solution of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) typically struggle in problems with high-dimensional inputs/outputs. Such difficulties are only amplified in large-scale applications where even a few tens of full-order model runs are impracticable. While dimensionality redu…
ProbDR framework interprets DR algorithms as probabilistic inference.
problem Efficiently compressing high-dimensional data into lower dimensions.
method ProbDR variational framework that treats DR as probabilistic inference.
result ProbDR unifies various DR algorithms and enables probabilistic reasoning.
Proposes a stratified sampling method for high-dimensional models using neural active manifolds.
problem Uncertainty propagation in computationally expensive models with many inputs.
method Neural active manifolds for nonlinear dimensionality reduction, followed by stratification in the reduced space.
result Effective variance reduction in high-dimensional models using stratified sampling.
Defense against ASR attacks using dropout uncertainty.
problem Adversarial attacks on ASR systems.
method Dropout uncertainty in neural networks.
result High detection accuracy across various ASR systems and datasets.
This work surveys unsupervised learning methods for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification in complex PDEs.
problem Uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional stochastic inputs of complex PDEs.
method Review and investigation of thirteen dimension reduction methods including linear and nonlinear, spectral, blind source separation, convex and non-convex methods.
result Manifold PCE (m-PCE) provides a cost-effective approach compared to deep neural network-based surrogates.
Wireless traffic prediction is a fundamental enabler to proactive network optimisation in beyond 5G. Forecasting extreme demand spikes and troughs due to traffic mobility is essential to avoiding outages and improving energy efficiency. Current state-of-the-art deep learning forecasting methods predominantly focus on o…
Paper uses non-linear dimension reduction for better economic forecasting.
problem Analyzing economic effects of shocks in large datasets.
method Non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions.
result Non-linear dimension reduction techniques improve forecasting, especially in volatile data.
We focus in this paper on dataset reduction techniques for use in k-nearest neighbor classification. In such a context, feature and prototype selections have always been independently treated by the standard storage reduction algorithms. While this certifying is theoretically justified by the fact that each subproblem …
We consider active maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference problem for Hidden Markov Models (HMM), where, given an initial MAP estimate of the hidden sequence, we select to label certain states in the sequence to improve the estimation accuracy of the remaining states. We develop an analytical approach to this problem for…
This work compares data reduction criteria for online Gaussian Processes.
problem The computational complexity of Gaussian Processes limits their applicability to small datasets and streaming scenarios.
method Unified comparison of several data reduction criteria, analyzing computational complexity and reduction behavior.
result Practical guidelines for choosing a suitable data reduction criterion for online Gaussian Processes.
In this paper, we analyze the behavior of the multivariate symmetric uncertainty (MSU) measure through the use of statistical simulation techniques under various mixes of informative and non-informative randomly generated features. Experiments show how the number of attributes, their cardinalities, and the sample size …
While active learning offers potential cost savings, the actual data efficiency---the reduction in amount of labeled data needed to obtain the same error rate---observed in practice is mixed. This paper poses a basic question: when is active learning actually helpful? We provide an answer for logistic regression with t…
Research uses CPS to estimate uncertainty in ML radio metric models.
problem Estimating uncertainty in machine learning models for radio metrics and path loss.
method Conformal Prediction (CP) in Conformal Predictive Systems (CPS) with diverse difficulty estimators.
result CPS models maintain high coverage and reliability across different cities.
AutoPQ automates quantile forecasting for smart grids, reducing workload and environmental impact.
problem Accurate and unbiased uncertainty quantification in probabilistic forecasting for smart grid operations.
method AutoPQ uses a conditional Invertible Neural Network (cINN) to generate quantile forecasts from point forecasts, automating model selection and hyperparameter optimization.
result AutoPQ outperforms state-of-the-art methods while reducing computational effort and environmental impact.
We develop a sparse representation method for neural network uncertainty.
problem Estimating model uncertainty in neural networks.
method Sparse representation of model uncertainty using inverse Multivariate Normal Distribution (MND), with a novel sparsification algorithm and analytical sampler.
result The information form of neural networks can be effectively applied for model uncertainty representation, showing competitive performance.
A Gaussian Process Ordinary Differential Equation framework for large continuous dynamical systems
problem Forecasting complex dynamical systems
method Kernel autonomous ODE approach based on Gaussian Processes and Quadratic Order Model Reduction
result Full model outperforms ROM methods in terms of accuracy or computational costs
Paper develops a robust hedging framework to reduce market risk and uncertainty.
problem Managing uncertainty and risk exposure in portfolio management.
method Combines high-frequency realized variance, covariance measures, and autoregressive models for multi-step volatility forecasting. Uses a box-uncertainty robust optimization scheme to derive a closed-form solution for the robust hedge ratio.
result Robust hedge ratios are more stable and entail lower turnover than standard dynamic hedges, improving downside protection and risk-adjusted performance.
The ultimate goal of optimization is to find the minimizer of a target function.However, typical criteria for active optimization often ignore the uncertainty about the minimizer. We propose a novel criterion for global optimization and an associated sequential active learning strategy using Gaussian processes.Our crit…
SConU improves uncertainty prediction for large models by testing for outliers and reducing miscoverage.
problem Real-world deployment of large language models requires reliable guarantees of task-specific metrics.
method SConU implements significance tests to identify and exclude outliers that violate exchangeability assumptions.
result SConU reduces miscoverage rates and enhances prediction efficiency in high-stakes tasks.