Bayesian approach for constructing and rebalancing sparse index-tracking portfolios.
problem Sparse tracking of a reference index with uncertainty quantification.
method Sparse linear regression with Laplace prior, empirical-Bayes calibration, Langevin-type MCMC, threshold-based rules.
result Posterior uncertainty on tracking error, portfolio composition, and rebalancing moves.
This paper proposes a DGP approach with UCBs for point target tracking over WSNs.
problem Uncertainty quantification in distributed machine learning-based tracking over WSNs.
method Distributed Gaussian process (DGP) approach with upper confidence bounds (UCBs).
result UCBs provide 88% and 42% higher probability of encompassing true target states in X and Y coordinates, respectively.
Bayesian deep learning improves seismic imaging uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in seismic imaging due to data noise and linearization errors.
method Combines Bayesian inference and deep neural networks to quantify uncertainty in horizon tracking.
result Uncertainty in automatically tracked horizons can be quantified and visualized.
PKF improves KF for dynamic uncertainty tracking in time-course data.
problem Dynamic uncertainty tracking in time-course data.
method Pathspace Kalman Filter (PKF) using Bayesian methodology.
result PKF outperforms conventional KF methods, reducing MSE by several orders of magnitude.
Paper introduces EnDKF for more accurate pose tracking.
problem Accurate pose tracking with directional uncertainty.
method EnDKF integrates unit-quaternion attitude representation for better directional uncertainty capture.
result Significant reduction in error compared to traditional methods.
Deep learning has the potential to dramatically impact navigation and tracking state estimation problems critical to autonomous vehicles and robotics. Measurement uncertainties in state estimation systems based on Kalman and other Bayes filters are typically assumed to be a fixed covariance matrix. This assumption is r…
Perfect tracking control for real-world Euler-Lagrange systems is challenging due to uncertainties in the system model and external disturbances. The magnitude of the tracking error can be reduced either by increasing the feedback gains or improving the model of the system. The latter is clearly preferable as it allows…
New algorithm tracks deep RL value functions with uncertainty.
problem Static RL algorithms ignore uncertainty in agent-environment interactions.
method Langevinized Kalman Temporal-Difference (LKTD) algorithm using SGMCMC.
result LKTD algorithm converges to posterior distribution of deep RL parameters.
Improved vehicle motion prediction with uncertainty estimation.
problem Robust motion prediction for autonomous vehicles, especially under distributional shift.
method Presented an approach significantly improving the benchmark and taking 2nd place on the leaderboard.
result Significantly improved motion prediction and uncertainty measurement.
Index tracking is a popular form of asset management. Typically, a quadratic function is used to define the tracking error of a portfolio and the look back approach is applied to solve the index tracking problem. We argue that a forward looking approach is more suitable, whereby the tracking error is expressed as expec…
Study examines CSO algorithm for 3D swarming and tracking multiple targets.
problem Simulating and tracking multiple targets in 3D space.
method Cyclic Stochastic Optimization (CSO) algorithm implemented by mobile sensing agents.
result CSO algorithm converges in 3D space, minimizing uncertainty in targets' state estimates.
Gaussian Processes (GPs) are widely employed in control and learning because of their principled treatment of uncertainty. However, tracking uncertainty for iterative, multi-step predictions in general leads to an analytically intractable problem. While approximation methods exist, they do not come with guarantees, mak…
New approach uses Gaussian processes to learn and track complex systems with guaranteed accuracy.
problem Inaccurate first principle models for complex systems due to data complexity.
method Bayesian prediction error bound for Gaussian process regression, derived from kernel-based data density.
result Achieves vanishing tracking error with increasing data density, providing time-varying accuracy guarantees.
New theorems show agents need specific internal structures to perform well under uncertainty.
problem How do agents need to be structured to perform well under uncertainty?
method Proved selection theorems showing strong task performance forces specific internal structures.
result Strong task performance forces world models, belief-like memory, and persistent regime-tracking variables.
SOOTT framework optimizes target tracking with robust and learning-augmented algorithms.
problem Optimizing target tracking in dynamic environments with adversarial perturbations.
method Integrates robust and learning-augmented algorithms for online decision-making.
result CoRT learning-augmented algorithm strictly improves over robust BEST when predictions are accurate.
This paper studies directed exploration for reinforcement learning agents by tracking uncertainty about the value of each available action. We identify two sources of uncertainty that are relevant for exploration. The first originates from limited data (parametric uncertainty), while the second originates from the dist…
Deep neural networks predict CVCM track circuit failures early.
problem Subtle anomalies in CVCM track circuits lead to failures, causing disruptions.
method Deep neural networks classify anomalies before they escalate.
result Deep neural networks achieve 99.31% overall accuracy in detecting CVCM failures.
A new method improves policy evaluation in RL by tracking value uncertainties.
problem Limitations in existing policy evaluation methods for deep RL tasks.
method KOVA (Kalman Optimization for Value Approximation) based on extended Kalman filter.
result KOVA minimizes a regularized objective function that considers parameter and noisy return uncertainties.
Unified model improves object-centric world modeling with new abilities.
problem Integration of recent advances and temporal imagination abilities.
method Generative Structured World Models (G-SWM) framework.
result G-SWM achieves best or comparable performance in temporal generation.
The standard taxonomy of predictive uncertainty is inconsistent with standard measures.
problem Uncertainty taxonomy and measure inconsistency
method Proof of inconsistency
result Uncertainty is not reducible to data collection
Study on the structure of classifier boundaries in DNA sequencing.
problem Understanding the structure of boundaries in a Bayes classifier for DNA sequencing.
method Examined the structure of the boundary in a Bayes classifier applied to DNA sequencing data. Introduced a new measure of uncertainty, Neighbor Similarity.
result The boundary is large and complex, and Neighbor Similarity effectively measures classifier uncertainty.
During training, the weights of a Deep Neural Network (DNN) are optimized from a random initialization towards a nearly optimum value minimizing a loss function. Only this final state of the weights is typically kept for testing, while the wealth of information on the geometry of the weight space, accumulated over the …
The paper proposes blending gradient boosted trees and neural networks for hierarchical time series forecasting.
problem Point and probabilistic forecasting of hierarchical time series.
method A blending methodology of gradient boosted trees and neural networks, with feature engineering and diverse model selection.
result Ranked within the gold medal range in both Accuracy and Uncertainty tracks of the M5 Competition.
We study robust notions of good-deal hedging and valuation under combined uncertainty about the drifts and volatilities of asset prices. Good-deal bounds are determined by a subset of risk-neutral pricing measures such that not only opportunities for arbitrage are excluded but also deals that are too good, by restricti…
Active learning methods, like uncertainty sampling, combined with probabilistic prediction techniques have achieved success in various problems like image classification and text classification. For more complex multivariate prediction tasks, the relationships between labels play an important role in designing structur…
EviTrack improves sequential prediction in delayed disambiguation scenarios.
problem Challenges in sequential prediction with delayed disambiguation where early observations are ambiguous.
method EviTrack operates over latent trajectories, applying evidence- and likelihood-ratio-based selection to delay commitment until supported by data.
result EviTrack outperforms sampling-based baselines in a controlled synthetic benchmark, achieving faster post-disambiguation recovery.
Robust visual tracking for long video sequences is a research area that has many important applications. The main challenges include how the target image can be modeled and how this model can be updated. In this paper, we model the target using a covariance descriptor, as this descriptor is robust to problems such as p…
Though machine learning has achieved notable success in modeling sequential and spatial data for speech recognition and in computer vision, applications to remote sensing and climate science problems are seldom considered. In this paper, we demonstrate techniques from unsupervised learning of future video frame predict…
The shape of an object is an important characteristic for many vision problems such as segmentation, detection and tracking. Being independent of appearance, it is possible to generalize to a large range of objects from only small amounts of data. However, shapes represented as silhouette images are challenging to mode…
How can we efficiently propagate uncertainty in a latent state representation with recurrent neural networks? This paper introduces stochastic recurrent neural networks which glue a deterministic recurrent neural network and a state space model together to form a stochastic and sequential neural generative model. The c…
Online DEM improves tracking of latent states in dynamic systems.
problem Tracking latent states in dynamic systems with online updates.
method Specializes DEM for online data assimilation, separating temporal scales.
result ODEM can track latent states of a non-linear generative model.
Novel methods for splitting Gaussian mixtures improve uncertainty propagation in nonlinear systems.
problem Improving accuracy and efficiency in nonlinear uncertainty propagation.
method Preserving mean and covariance, novel heuristics for selecting splitting direction informed by initial uncertainty and nonlinear function properties.
result Improved accuracy and efficiency in uncertainty propagation compared to existing techniques.
Active learning has long been a topic of study in machine learning. However, as increasingly complex and opaque models have become standard practice, the process of active learning, too, has become more opaque. There has been little investigation into interpreting what specific trends and patterns an active learning st…
Driving styles have a great influence on vehicle fuel economy, active safety, and drivability. To recognize driving styles of path-tracking behaviors for different divers, a statistical pattern-recognition method is developed to deal with the uncertainty of driving styles or characteristics based on probability density…
The paper examines uncertainty calibration for object detection models in autonomous driving.
problem Uncertainty in object detection predictions and its calibration.
method Definition and evaluation of semantic and spatial uncertainty, calibration methods for uncertainty distributions.
result Calibrated uncertainty improves the overall performance of object detection models in real-world scenarios.
The authors propose a parametric model called the arena model for prediction in paired competitions, i.e. paired comparisons with eliminations and bifurcations. The arena model has a number of appealing advantages. First, it predicts the results of competitions without rating many individuals. Second, it takes full adv…
We study a probabilistic numerical method for the solution of both boundary and initial value problems that returns a joint Gaussian process posterior over the solution. Such methods have concrete value in the statistics on Riemannian manifolds, where non-analytic ordinary differential equations are involved in virtual…
Langevin DQN achieves deep exploration using Gaussian noise.
problem Deep exploration in reinforcement learning.
method Developed Langevin DQN, a variation of DQN with Gaussian noise.
result Langevin DQN achieves deep exploration.
KFT improves tensor forecasting by incorporating side information.
problem Tensor factorization weaknesses in latent factors.
method Kernel Fried Tensor (KFT) with variational inference.
result Superior performance over LightGBM and FFM.
HawkesLLM models text generation with temporal influence, improving semantic alignment under limited memory.
problem Path-dependent uncertainty in agentic text-simulation systems.
method HawkesLLM framework separates temporal influence modeling from text generation, using a multivariate Hawkes process and a language model.
result HawkesLLM improves late-stage semantic alignment under a compact prompt-memory budget.
Push-SAGA is a decentralized algorithm for directed graphs that converges linearly.
problem Finite-sum minimization over directed graphs with stochastic gradients.
method Combines variance reduction, gradient tracking, and consensus algorithms.
result Achieves linear convergence for smooth and strongly convex problems.
RL approach for target tracking with unknown dynamics and sensor control.
problem Tracking an unknown target with sensor control.
method Track-MDP formulation for RL, compared with POMDP.
result Optimal RL policy tracks all target paths with certainty.
This work uses SVM to identify track component failures in AC Track Circuits.
problem Detecting and identifying specific track component failures in AC Track Circuits.
method Applied SVM classifier to STDS track circuit data.
result Successfully classified 15 different track component failures.
New train tracks for complex homeomorphisms found.
problem Existence of irreducible train tracks for pseudo-Anosov homeomorphisms.
method Starting from a veering triangulation, identify and modify branches to bypass obstructions.
result Construction of invariant train tracks with irreducible transition matrix.
New method uses cluster shapes to improve track finding in particle collisions.
problem Combining timing and additional detector information for efficient track finding.
method Neural networks to analyze cluster shapes for track seeding.
result Cluster shapes reduce fake combinatorial backgrounds while maintaining high track efficiency.
A neural network solves Black-Scholes PDE for option pricing with uncertainty quantification.
problem Solving the Black-Scholes equation for option pricing with uncertainty.
method Physics-informed neural network (PINN) that embeds BS operator and conditions, handles early exercise via relaxation, and uses anchored-ensemble fine-tuning for uncertainty quantification.
result The method achieves low errors and accurate predictions for European and American options, outperforming data-driven baselines.
This paper optimizes object tracking on edge devices with small matrices.
problem Efficiently tracking objects in video sequences on edge devices with small matrices.
method Parallelized a Simple Online and Real-time Tracking (SORT) application on shared-memory multicores.
result Throughput-based parallelization technique outperforms multi-threading for small matrices.
Unified Bayesian framework for LTV system identification using neural networks and Gaussian Processes.
problem Identifying Linear Time-Varying systems from input-output data.
method Bayesian modeling of impulse response as a stochastic process, using neural networks and Gaussian Processes for inference.
result Framework can infer LTI system properties from a single noisy input-output pair, achieving lower error than classical methods.