The study establishes uncertainty principles on harmonic manifolds of rank one.
problem Developing uncertainty principles for harmonic manifolds of rank one.
method Derivation of various uncertainty principles including Heisenberg, Morgen, Schrödinger, and Hömanders principles.
result Generalization of Hausdorff-Young inequality to harmonic manifolds of rank one.
We show that a well known uncertainty principle for functions on the circle can be derived from an uncertainty principle for the Euclidean motion group.
A new method to break down insurance costs into risk and uncertainty.
problem Understanding and quantifying insurance costs in uncertain environments.
method An axiomatic approach to decompose premium principles into risk and deviation measures.
result Maximal risk and minimal deviation measures can be uniquely identified in decompositions.
Extends fractional Lp uncertainty principles with extremizers and stability results.
problem Investigating uncertainty principles in fractional Lp settings. method Analyzing the fractional Schrödinger equation to find extremal functions and sharp constants.
result Proves stability of extremizers for fractional uncertainty inequalities.
The paper proves uncertainty principles on Finsler measure spaces.
problem Uncertainty principles on Finsler measure spaces.
method Analyzes Lp-uncertainty principles on Finsler measure spaces with bounded curvatures. result Sharp Lp-uncertainty principles are proven and characterized. For unbounded operators A,B and C in general, with C closure of [A,B] does not lead to the uncertainty relation ||Au|| ||Bu|| >= |<C u,u> |/2. If A,B and C are part of the generators of a unitary representation of a Lie group then the uncertainty principle above holds.
Uncertainty principles such as Heisenberg's provide limits on the time-frequency concentration of a signal, and constitute an important theoretical tool for designing and evaluating linear signal transforms. Generalizations of such principles to the graph setting can inform dictionary design for graph signals, lead to …
Bayesian method detects outliers and uncertain points in data.
problem Detecting outliers and uncertain points in data using Bayesian methods.
method Generative model of data curation for aleatoric uncertainty, combining with epistemic uncertainty and outlier exposure.
result Principled Bayesian approach outperforms methods using aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty alone.
ProbFM provides principled uncertainty quantification for financial forecasting.
problem Lack of principled uncertainty quantification in financial applications.
method Probabilistic Time Series Foundation Model with Uncertainty Decomposition using Deep Evidential Regression (DER).
result DER maintains competitive forecasting accuracy while providing explicit epistemic-aleatoric uncertainty decomposition.
We prove rigidity theorems for shrinking gradient Ricci solitons supporting the Heisenberg-Pauli-Weyl uncertainty principle with the sharp constant in Rn. In addtion, we partially give analogous rigidity results of the Caffarelli-Kohn-Nirenberg inequalities on shrinking Ricci solitons.
This work tackles uncertainty quantification in language models, proposing a principled approach.
problem Challenges in identifying task-specific uncertainties in large language models.
method Bayesian decision theory, focusing on a similarity measure between generated and hypothetical true responses.
result Derives a measure for epistemic uncertainty based on a missing data perspective.
A new uncertainty principle helps traders better understand market activity.
problem Understanding high-frequency market activity and correlation.
method Integrates market activity, order-flow overlap, and response time into a clock-dependent uncertainty principle.
result Six rules of thumb for traders operating at market-making frequencies.
Alternative proofs for various inequalities on Riemannian manifolds.
problem Various functional inequalities on Riemannian manifolds.
method Generic functional inequality, Riccati pairs, solving Riccati-type ODE.
result Alternative proofs for multiple inequalities, including Hardy-type and Caccioppoli inequalities.
A novel Laplace-approximated Bayesian Tensor Network Kernel Machine (LA-TNKM) provides principled uncertainty estimates.
problem How to provide principled uncertainty estimates for tensor network kernel machines.
method Employing a linearized Laplace approximation for Bayesian inference.
result Consistently matches or surpasses Gaussian Processes and BNNs across diverse UCI regression benchmarks.
Sharp uncertainty principle for nodal sets in singular spaces.
problem Estimating the size of nodal sets in non-smooth spaces.
method Uncertainty principle applied to eigenfunctions in metric measure spaces with synthetic Ricci curvature bounds.
result New lower bounds on nodal set sizes in non-smooth spaces.
SNGP improves DNNs' uncertainty estimation with minimal changes.
problem Uncertainty estimation in deep learning models for real-time applications.
method Formalizing uncertainty as a minimax problem, SNGP adds weight normalization and replaces the output layer with a Gaussian process.
result SNGP outperforms other single-model approaches in uncertainty estimation across vision and language tasks.
This work provides uncertainty intervals for semantic latent variables in disentangled latent spaces.
problem Challenges in providing meaningful uncertainty quantification for semantic information in disentangled latent spaces.
method Uses quantile regression to output heuristic uncertainty intervals, calibrates these intervals to contain true latent values, and propagates them through the generator.
result Reliably communicates semantically meaningful, principled, and instance-adaptive uncertainty in image super-resolution and image completion.
New uncertainty principle for Schrödinger equations on hyperbolic manifolds.
problem Uncertainty principle for Schrödinger equations on hyperbolic manifolds.
method General strategy of Escauriaza-Kenig-Ponce-Vega, new Carleman estimates, logarithmic convexity, new mollifier and weight function.
result Similar rigidity phenomenon as in Euclidean space persists in hyperbolic geometry.
Bayesian Scattering offers a simple baseline for image data uncertainty.
problem Lack of interpretable, mathematically grounded uncertainty quantification methods for image data.
method Coupling wavelet scattering transform with a simple probabilistic head.
result Bayesian Scattering provides sensible uncertainty estimates under distribution shifts.
We introduce a new, efficient, principled and backpropagation-compatible algorithm for learning a probability distribution on the weights of a neural network, called Bayes by Backprop. It regularises the weights by minimising a compression cost, known as the variational free energy or the expected lower bound on the ma…
The paper examines optimal insurance design using Lambda-Value-at-Risk.
problem Optimal insurance design based on Lambda-Value-at-Risk.
method Analyzes optimal insurance solutions using Lambda-Value-at-Risk and closed-form expressions.
result Truncated stop-loss indemnity is optimal under certain conditions.
Bayesian principles improve neural additive models for better feature selection and uncertainty.
problem Lack of calibrated uncertainties and feature selection in neural additive models.
method Augmenting NAMs with Bayesian principles to provide credible intervals, feature selection, and interaction ranking.
result Improved performance on tabular datasets and real-world medical tasks.
Unified framework for planning under uncertainty using variational inference.
problem Planning under uncertainty with separate objectives for exploration and exploitation.
method Variational inference on a generative model augmented with priors.
result EFE-based planning emerges as variational inference, enabling scalable, resource-aware policies.
The paper shows how uncertainty quantification improves counterfactual explainability in AI.
problem Lack of foundational concepts in transparency research.
method Integrates uncertainty quantification into counterfactual explainability.
result Demonstrates competitive performance of an uncertainty-based explainer.
New rigorous uncertainty bounds for Gaussian Process regression.
problem Need for frequentist uncertainty bounds in applications like learning-based control.
method Introduce new uncertainty bounds that are rigorous and practically useful.
result New bounds are less conservative and more useful for practical applications.
Unified taxonomy for ML uncertainty in physics, validated.
problem Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for physics.
method Unified taxonomy, principled validation tools.
result Illustrated validation tools with examples.
PAGER detects failures in deep regression models using a new framework.
problem Detecting failures in deep regression models.
method PAGER uses a combination of epistemic uncertainty and manifold non-conformity scores.
result PAGER accurately characterizes and detects failures in deep regressors.
Unified geometric approach to quantum indeterminacy.
problem Quantum indeterminacy and uncertainty principles.
method Geometric formulation using convex geometry and symplectic topology.
result Robertson-Schrodinger inequalities emerge as geometric principles.
It is shown that absence of arbitrage opportunity in financial markets is a particular case of existence of uncertainty in decision system. Absence of arbitrage opportunity is considered in the sense of the Arrow-Debreu model of financial market with a riskless asset, while uncertainty (or ambiguity) is defined on the …
The uncertainty principle lemma for the Laplacian on Euclidean spaces shows the borderline-behavior of a potential for the following question : whether the Schrödinger operator has a finite or infinite number of the discrete pectrum. In this paper, we will give a generalization of this lemma on Euclidean spaces to that…
This work introduces uncertainty principles to mitigate Maximal Extractable Value in blockchain systems.
problem Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) in decentralized systems due to transaction submission privacy and monopolist power.
method Unified approaches via uncertainty principles, akin to harmonic analysis and physics, to quantify trade-offs between transaction flexibility and user economic payoff.
result Demonstrates a quantitative trade-off between transaction flexibility and user economic payoff, analogous to the Nyquist-Shannon sampling theorem.
The paper extends spectral estimates to hyperbolic surfaces with hyperbolic ends.
problem Proving a necessary condition for observability of the heat semigroup on manifolds.
method Propagation of smallness estimates of Carleman and Logunov-Malinnikova type.
result Established spectral estimates for surfaces with hyperbolic ends, proving the thickness condition is necessary.
New framework identifies and reduces errors in machine learning under distribution shift.
problem Errors in machine learning models when distributions change.
method Developed a principled framework to characterize and eliminate epistemic errors in imperfect multitask learning.
result Provided a decompositional epistemic error bound for general settings of distribution shift.
Bayesian parametric matrix models provide uncertainty quantification for spectral learning.
problem Uncertainty quantification in spectral learning for safety-critical applications.
method Bayesian parametric matrix models (B-PMMs) that extend PMMs to provide uncertainty estimates.
result B-PMMs achieve exceptional uncertainty calibration (ECE < 0.05) while maintaining favorable scaling.
The study improves Poincaré and log-Sobolev inequalities on hyperbolic spaces.
problem Improving Poincaré and log-Sobolev inequalities on hyperbolic spaces.
method Establishing scale-dependent Poincaré-Hardy type identities and choosing suitable parameters, potentials, and vector fields.
result Derives new versions and substantially improves existing inequalities.
This study introduces axioms to assess regression uncertainty measures.
problem Limited formal justification and evaluations of uncertainty measures in regression settings.
method Introduces axioms and analyzes entropy- and variance-based measures in a predictive exponential family context.
result Provides a principled foundation for reliable uncertainty assessment in regression.
Study on hyperbolic manifolds finds measures of Laplace eigenfunctions restricted to cosphere bundles.
problem Analyzing semiclassical measures on hyperbolic manifolds.
method Adapting Dyatlov and Jin's argument to higher dimensions and using Ratner theory.
result Semiclassical measures' support contains the cosphere bundle of a compact totally geodesic submanifold.
NADS improves OoD detection accuracy by 57%.
problem Uncertainty in machine learning models when encountering out-of-distribution data.
method NADS searches for a distribution of architectures that perform well on a given task, optimizing a stochastic OoD detection objective.
result NADS achieves up to 57% improvement in accuracy over state-of-the-art methods.
RCaGP improves robustness and computational efficiency in Gaussian processes.
problem Outliers in large datasets corrupt standard Gaussian process models.
method Combines robustness and approximation-awareness in a principled framework.
result Ensures more conservative and reliable uncertainty estimates.
This paper aims to make a new contribution to the study of lifetime ruin problem by considering investment in two hedge funds with high-watermark fees and drift uncertainty. Due to multi-dimensional performance fees that are charged whenever each fund profit exceeds its historical maximum, the value function is expecte…
New method uses backward SDEs for deep learning uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method Probabilistic machine learning with stochastic neural networks and stochastic optimal control.
result Effectiveness validated through numerical experiments.
ARO overfits by making constraints dependent on uncertainty, leading to brittleness.
problem ARO's adaptive policies become brittle when realizations fall outside the uncertainty set.
method Assigning constraint-specific uncertainty set sizes with probabilistic guarantees.
result Regularization through specific uncertainty set sizes ensures stability and flexibility.
Proposes a new criterion for reliable uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks.
problem Inability of existing approaches to provide reliable uncertainty estimates for deep neural networks.
method Develops a density uncertainty layer architecture that satisfies the proposed criterion.
result Density uncertainty layers provide more reliable uncertainty estimates and robust out-of-distribution detection.
Active Learning (AL) is increasingly important in a broad range of applications. Two main AL principles to obtain accurate classification with few labeled data are refinement of the current decision boundary and exploration of poorly sampled regions. In this paper we derive a novel AL scheme that balances these two pri…
Propagating input uncertainty through non-linear Gaussian process (GP) mappings is intractable. This hinders the task of training GPs using uncertain and partially observed inputs. In this paper we refer to this task as "semi-described learning". We then introduce a GP framework that solves both, the semi-described and…
Unified Bayesian-AI framework improves epidemiological risk prediction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of calibrated uncertainty in machine learning models for epidemiology.
method Combines Bayesian prediction with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using logistic regression and Gaussian-process Bayesian optimization.
result Unified Bayesian-AI framework provides reliable coverage and improved calibration, enhancing epidemiological decision making.
DER uses neural nets to better handle uncertainty in machine learning.
problem Need for principled uncertainty reasoning in safety-critical domains.
method Uncertainty-aware regression-based neural networks (NNs) with evidential distributions.
result DER shows promise over traditional methods but is a heuristic.
Various strategies for active learning have been proposed in the machine learning literature. In uncertainty sampling, which is among the most popular approaches, the active learner sequentially queries the label of those instances for which its current prediction is maximally uncertain. The predictions as well as the …