arXiv research

Bayesian Gaussian process models handle uncertain data locations in PDE approximations.

AIRBO optimizes robustly under uncertain inputs.

Bayesian optimisation (BO) has been a successful approach to optimise functions which are expensive to evaluate and whose observations are noisy. Classical BO algorithms, however, do not account for errors about the location where observations are taken, which is a common issue in problems with physical components. In …

Bayesian method for estimating inputs leading to specific probability outputs.

Tree-based ensemble methods, as Random Forests and Gradient Boosted Trees, have been successfully used for regression in many applications and research studies. Furthermore, these methods have been extended in order to deal with uncertainty in the output variable, using for example a quantile loss in Random Forests (Me…

Localized uncertainty attacks target uncertain regions to create imperceptible adversarial examples.

New methods improve uncertainty explanations for models.

A network of independently trained Gaussian processes (StackedGP) is introduced to obtain predictions of quantities of interest with quantified uncertainties. The main applications of the StackedGP framework are to integrate different datasets through model composition, enhance predictions of quantities of interest thr…

uMoE trains NNs with uncertain data by embedding uncertainty into training.

AugMask trains diffusion models on incomplete tabular data by augmenting missing values and applying denoising supervision.

Proposes a new method for efficient model reconstruction with uncertain parameters.

Improved surrogate model for field-valued QoIs using LF and HF simulations.

Optimization is becoming increasingly common in scientific and engineering domains. Oftentimes, these problems involve various levels of stochasticity or uncertainty in generating proposed solutions. Therefore, optimization in these scenarios must consider this stochasticity to properly guide the design of future exper…

In the manufacturing industry, it is often necessary to repeat expensive operational testing of machine in order to identify the range of input conditions under which the machine operates properly. Since it is often difficult to accurately control the input conditions during the actual usage of the machine, there is a …

Deep learning provides a powerful tool for machine perception when the observations resemble the training data. However, real-world robotic systems must react intelligently to their observations even in unexpected circumstances. This requires a system to reason about its own uncertainty given unfamiliar, out-of-distrib…

A new method uses Gaussian Processes to solve power flow problems with uncertain renewable and load inputs.

The paper explores how to handle uncertain evidence in probabilistic models.

New method calculates Shapley values for uncertain functions.

A method for dynamic portfolio choice with uncertain parameters using Pontryagin projection.

New BO method optimizes multiple objectives under input noise.

In this paper, within the framework of uncertainty theory, the valuation of equity warrants is investigated. Different from the methods of probability theory, the equity warrants pricing problem is solved by using the method of uncertain calculus. Based on the assumption that the firm price follows an uncertain differe…

Quantum methods model uncertain volatility in financial markets.

New model predicts dynamic volatility in uncertain financial markets.

The target of this paper is to consider model the risky asset price on the financial market under the Knightian uncertainty, and pricing the ask and bid prices of the uncertain risk. We use the nonlinear analysis tool, i.e., G-frame work [26], to construct the model of the risky asset price and bid-ask pricing for the …

Study calculates Bayes risk for semi-supervised learning with uncertain labels.

Propagating input uncertainty through non-linear Gaussian process (GP) mappings is intractable. This hinders the task of training GPs using uncertain and partially observed inputs. In this paper we refer to this task as "semi-described learning". We then introduce a GP framework that solves both, the semi-described and…

New algorithm for uncertain time series classification.

Unified method for balancing simulation and data collection.

New algorithm for reinforcement learning in uncertain environments with unknown thresholds.

TIE framework detects out-of-distribution samples and estimates uncertainty without external datasets.

Safe learning in uncertain systems with state measurements and optimization.

We propose a feed-forward inference method applicable to belief and neural networks. In a belief network, the method estimates an approximate factorized posterior of all hidden units given the input. In neural networks the method propagates uncertainty of the input through all the layers. In neural networks with inject…

A method for accurate pricing of multidimensional derivatives under uncertain volatility.

The paper addresses portfolio allocation with uncertain covariance matrices, finding a logarithmic risk dependence.

Framework for games with uncertain parameters, ensuring no player can improve by changing strategy.

Proposes a new criterion for reliable uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks.

Model quantifies uncertainty's impact on European option prices.

IDT learns human preferences from uncertain decisions, even when humans are suboptimal.

The paper tackles robust control with uncertain dependence using data-driven methods.

Flat solutions don't guarantee generalization for logistic loss in neural networks.

We propose an efficient nonparametric strategy for learning a message operator in expectation propagation (EP), which takes as input the set of incoming messages to a factor node, and produces an outgoing message as output. This learned operator replaces the multivariate integral required in classical EP, which may not…

Paper proposes online optimization for uncertain systems using machine learning and DRO.

This paper tackles JSSP with uncertain task durations using DRL.

This paper first describes a class of uncertain stochastic control systems with Markovian switching, and derives an Itô-Liu formula for Markov-modulated processes. And we characterize an optimal control law, which satisfies the generalized Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation with Markovian switching. Then, by using …

This paper improves learning uncertain Bayesian networks from incomplete data.

Rainfall prediction is one of the challenging and uncertain tasks which has a significant impact on human society. Timely and accurate predictions can help to proactively reduce human and financial loss. This study presents a set of experiments which involve the use of prevalent machine learning techniques to build mod…

Proposes a new uncertain volatility model with worst-case scenario analysis.

In this paper, we propose the uncertain volatility models with stochastic bounds. Like the regular uncertain volatility models, we know only that the true model lies in a family of progressively measurable and bounded processes, but instead of using two deterministic bounds, the uncertain volatility fluctuates between …