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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for Uncertain Demand

Deep RL methods improve resource allocation in uncertain environments.

problem Optimizing resource allocation in dynamic, uncertain environments.
method Developed three DDPG-based approaches to handle constraints and combinatorial action spaces.
result Demonstrated improved performance over existing methods on real and semi-real data.

Framework optimizes PV-battery investment timing to maximize value.

problem Optimizing investments in residential PV-battery systems under uncertain market conditions.
method Real options valuation framework with multi-stage compound options, incorporating Monte Carlo simulation.
result Optimal timing of PV-battery investment increases overall value.

A new method uses GANs for robust optimization under uncertain data.

problem Optimizing supply chains under demand uncertainty with ambiguous distributions.
method Generative adversarial networks (GANs) for data-driven distributionally robust chance constrained programming.
result The approach effectively handles uncertain data distributions and improves supply chain optimization.

We study continuous time Bertrand oligopolies in which a small number of firms producing similar goods compete with one another by setting prices. We first analyze a static version of this game in order to better understand the strategies played in the dynamic setting. Within the static game, we characterize the Nash e…

2010-04-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Optimizes decision-making with uncertain variables using auxiliary observations.

problem Contextual stochastic optimization problems with uncertain variables and rich auxiliary observations.
method Trains forest decision policies by growing trees that optimize downstream decision quality, using optimization perturbation analysis for efficient approximations.
result Proves asymptotic optimality and empirical validation of the method's performance and efficiency.

Optimal vehicle repositioning policy found for shared mobility services.

problem Matching fixed supply with spatial customer demand under uncertain and correlated demand.
method Base-stock repositioning policy, asymptotic optimality, regret analysis, adaptive repositioning algorithm.
result Surrogate Optimization and Adaptive Repositioning algorithm achieves optimal regret of O(n2.5T)O(n^{2.5} \sqrt{T}).

Supplier learns to price contracts against a learning retailer.

problem Designing data-driven pricing policies for a supplier facing a learning retailer.
method Connecting to non-stationary online learning, proposing dynamic pricing policies for discrete and continuous demand.
result Supplier's pricing policies lead to sublinear regret bounds under various retailer learning policies.

The paper explores how to handle uncertain evidence in probabilistic models.

problem Handling uncertain evidence in probabilistic models and stochastic simulators.
method The paper considers distributional evidence, Jeffrey's rule, and virtual evidence as methods for interpreting uncertain evidence.
result The paper provides guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and highlights the importance of careful consideration.

In this paper, within the framework of uncertainty theory, the valuation of equity warrants is investigated. Different from the methods of probability theory, the equity warrants pricing problem is solved by using the method of uncertain calculus. Based on the assumption that the firm price follows an uncertain differe…

2017-11-22abs ↗pdf ↗

SPINN optimizes neural network inference on devices and cloud.

problem Inference on mobile devices is challenging due to high computational demands and dynamic connectivity.
method Synergistic progressive inference with a novel scheduler.
result SPINN achieves up to 2x higher throughput and reduces server cost by up to 6.8x.

Quantum methods model uncertain volatility in financial markets.

problem Modeling financial asset prices with uncertain volatility.
method Quantum stochastic calculus with unitary and non-unitary time evolution.
result Different volatility levels encoded in quantum states, leading to varied market price evolutions.

New model predicts dynamic volatility in uncertain financial markets.

problem Predicting dynamic volatility in financial markets with uncertainty.
method Generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BN-S) model considering delay and fuzziness.
result Effective prediction of dynamic volatility with improved performance.

New algorithm for reinforcement learning in uncertain environments with unknown thresholds.

problem Safety in reinforcement learning in unknown and uncertain environments.
method Growing-Window estimator sampling and Stochastic Pessimistic-Optimistic Thresholding (SPOT) algorithm.
result Achieves sublinear regret and constraint violation of ildeO(T) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T}).

This paper optimizes portfolio rebalancing under uncertain security returns using meta-heuristic algorithms.

problem Optimizing portfolio rebalancing under uncertain security returns with transaction costs.
method Meta-heuristic algorithms (genetic algorithm) for solving the portfolio rebalancing problem.
result Meta-heuristic algorithms provide better results than global optimization solvers for portfolio rebalancing under uncertainty.

A method for accurate pricing of multidimensional derivatives under uncertain volatility.

problem High-dimensional stochastic control problem in uncertain volatility model.
method Backward actor-critic stochastic policy gradient scheme combining DP, PPO, and neural networks.
result Accurate and efficient pricing of multidimensional derivatives compared to benchmarks.

The paper addresses portfolio allocation with uncertain covariance matrices, finding a logarithmic risk dependence.

problem Portfolio allocation with uncertain covariance matrices.
method Calculates the expected value of CARA utility function over a distribution of covariance matrices, considering uncertainty in future returns and covariances.
result Marginalization introduces a logarithmic dependence on risk, leading to lower allocation levels for higher uncertainties.

Bayesian optimisation tackles uncertain inputs in noisy function evaluations.

problem Optimizing functions with uncertain query locations and noisy outcomes.
method Proposes a UCB algorithm for BO with uncertain inputs, using Gaussian process models.
result Theoretical and experimental results show the proposed algorithm outperforms conventional methods.

RL enhances cloud autoscaling by learning optimal resource allocation.

problem Optimizing resource allocation in dynamic, uncertain cloud environments.
method Reinforcement Learning for dynamic, transparent, and adaptable resource management policies.
result RL enables transparent, dynamic, and adaptable resource management policies.

Bayesian Gaussian process models handle uncertain data locations in PDE approximations.

problem Handling uncertainties in data locations for PDE approximations.
method Bayesian inference of uncertain inputs integrated into Gaussian process predictions.
result Substantial reduction in predictive uncertainties achieved through Bayesian inference.

Paper proposes a transfer learning method for learning with label proportions that handles uncertain data.

problem Learning with label proportions (LLP) for uncertain data.
method Transfer learning approach to transfer knowledge from source to target tasks with uncertain data.
result The proposed TL-LLP method achieves better accuracy and is less sensitive to noise.

Framework for games with uncertain parameters, ensuring no player can improve by changing strategy.

problem Non-cooperative games with globally uncertain parameters and no common prior.
method Mixed strategies and subjective priors, Extended Equilibrium defined by fixed-point argument.
result Existence of Extended Equilibrium under certain conditions.

IDT learns human preferences from uncertain decisions, even when humans are suboptimal.

problem Learning human preferences from uncertain and suboptimal decisions.
method Inverse decision theory (IDT) framework, statistical analysis of IDT, characterizing sample complexity.
result Learning preferences is easier when decisions are more uncertain, even if humans are suboptimal.

Investor optimizes portfolio under dynamic risk preferences.

problem Optimizing investment under uncertain future risk attitudes.
method Developed a general equilibrium framework and solved for subgame-perfect equilibrium policies.
result Equilibrium policies include a novel hedging component to counteract anticipated risk aversion changes.

The paper tackles robust control with uncertain dependence using data-driven methods.

problem Nonparametric robust control under dependence uncertainty in multi-period stochastic systems.
method Nonparametric adaptive robust control framework using stochastic gradient descent ascent algorithm.
result The controller benefits from knowing more about the uncertain model.

Paper proposes online optimization for uncertain systems using machine learning and DRO.

problem Optimization of uncertain dynamical systems with distributional uncertainty.
method Combines machine learning with Distributional Robust Optimization (DRO) to handle uncertainty.
result Online solutions with probabilistic regret bounds for uncertain systems.

Paper introduces an efficient comparison operator for robust multi-objective optimization with uncertain objectives.

problem Optimizing with uncertain objectives in multi-objective problems.
method Empirical approach to compare solutions with arbitrary distributions of uncertain objectives.
result Higher optimization quality achieved at lower overheads compared to existing techniques.

This paper tackles JSSP with uncertain task durations using DRL.

problem Job Shop Scheduling Problem with uncertain task durations.
method Integrates Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to generate robust schedules.
result Advances DRL applications to JSSPs, enhancing generalization and scalability.

This paper improves learning uncertain Bayesian networks from incomplete data.

problem Learning conditional probabilities in Bayesian networks with limited data.
method Develops methods to estimate and quantify uncertainty in conditional probabilities with incomplete data.
result Improves state-of-the-art approaches for handling uncertain Bayesian networks with incomplete data.

Hybrid Bayesian-conformal framework improves uncertainty quantification in healthcare predictions.

problem Jointly satisfying distribution-free coverage guarantees and risk-adaptive precision in clinical decision-making.
method Integrates Bayesian hierarchical random forests with group-aware conformal calibration, using posterior uncertainties to weight conformity scores.
result Achieves target coverage (94.3% vs 95% target) with adaptive precision, 21% narrower intervals for low-uncertainty cases.

Adapts Bayesian optimization for uncertain outcomes using stochastic sampling.

problem Optimizing with uncertain or stochastic outcomes in scientific and engineering problems.
method Proposes SSBO, a new framework that handles uncertainty and myopic decision making.
result SSBO techniques effectively optimize standard and applied problems.

Federated learning uses worst-case optimization to handle uncertain local data impacts.

problem Handling uncertainty in local data sets in federated learning.
method Reformulate FL problem using worst-case optimization theory, considering local data as uncertain functions bounded in a closed region.
result Comparison of FL performance with centralized learning and application of regularization factors.

In this paper, we propose the uncertain volatility models with stochastic bounds. Like the regular uncertain volatility models, we know only that the true model lies in a family of progressively measurable and bounded processes, but instead of using two deterministic bounds, the uncertain volatility fluctuates between …

2017-02-16abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper proposes a joint energy and data market to handle uncertainty in energy procurement.

problem Handling uncertainty in energy markets through data markets.
method Modeling a day-ahead retailer energy procurement problem with uncertain demand, integrating forecasting and optimisation, and using differential privacy.
result The value of joint energy and data clearing is highlighted through numerical case studies.

UnKGCP generates prediction intervals for uncertain knowledge graphs with statistical guarantees.

problem Lack of quantified predictive uncertainty in existing UnKGE methods.
method Proposes extsc{UnKGCP} framework using conformal prediction with a novel nonconformity measure.
result Sharp prediction intervals effectively capture predictive uncertainty in diverse UnKGE methods.