Homicide mortality is a worldwide concern and has occupied the agenda of researchers and public managers. In Brazil, homicide is the third leading cause of death in the general population and the first in the 15-39 age group. In South America, Brazil has the third highest homicide mortality, behind Venezuela and Colomb…
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168,742 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “US Homicide Rates”
Machine learning predicts homicide clearance rates with SHAP explaining key features.
problem Predicting and explaining homicide clearance rates in the US.
method Nine algorithmic approaches compared; XGBoost selected. SHAP used for feature importance.
result XGBoost best predicts national homicide clearance rates; SHAP reveals key features.
stCEG models spatial events using Chain Event Graphs in R.
problem Modeling events over spatial areas.
method Full specification of CEG models from data, interactive plots, web GUI.
result First software for CEGs with full model customisation.
Causal discovery algorithms can help generate legal arguments.
problem Leveraging causal discovery algorithms in legal decision-making.
method Prepared a legal dataset, annotated with 17 legal concepts, applied causal discovery algorithms, and quantified degrees of belief.
result Some causal relationships help generate viable legal arguments.
Understanding the causes of crime is a longstanding issue in researcher's agenda. While it is a hard task to extract causality from data, several linear models have been proposed to predict crime through the existing correlations between crime and urban metrics. However, because of non-Gaussian distributions and multic…
We present a probabilistic method for linking multiple datafiles. This task is not trivial in the absence of unique identifiers for the individuals recorded. This is a common scenario when linking census data to coverage measurement surveys for census coverage evaluation, and in general when multiple record-systems nee…
LDF combines neural networks with probabilistic models for data fusion.
problem Combining limited primary data with readily available auxiliary data.
method Neural networks as conjugate mappings of auxiliary data for posterior analysis.
result Efficient inference and compact latent variable posterior distributions.
Robust feature-weighted jump models for time-dependent clustering
problem Temporal clustering
method Robust feature-weighted jump model
result Accurate recovery of true cluster sequence and feature identification
The study proposes algorithms to minimize rating discordance in missing data.
problem Missing ratings in combined rating lists.
method Optimization models and algorithms that minimize total rating discordance.
result The proposed methods outperform state-of-the-art imputation methods in accuracy.
Model credit ratings using economic states with Markov chains.
problem Credit rating migration influenced by economic state changes.
method Developed a Markov chain model for credit ratings conditional on economic states.
result Derived asymptotic behavior of the rating process using Markov theory.
The paper models SOFR and EFFR dynamics, reconciling diffusive and piecewise paths.
problem Updating interest rate models for SOFR, which is becoming a key benchmark.
method Calibrates a model to SOFR and EFFR futures prices, reconciling diffusive and piecewise paths.
result The model reflects key empirical features of SOFR dynamics and reconciles diffusive and piecewise paths.
Bounds for rating override ratesq-fin.RM
Overrides of credit ratings are important correctives of ratings that are determined by statistical rating models. Financial institutions and banking regulators agree on this because on the one hand errors with ratings of corporates or banks can have fatal consequences for the lending institutions and on the other hand…
Most of the existing recommender systems use the ratings provided by users on individual items. An additional source of preference information is to use the ratings that users provide on sets of items. The advantages of using preferences on sets are two-fold. First, a rating provided on a set conveys some preference in…
A novel approach models rating transitions using Lie groups and Deep Learning.
problem Modeling rating transitions with geometric properties and stochastic processes.
method Introducing Itô-SDEs on Lie groups, using TimeGAN for calibration, and examining rating matrix properties.
result The geometric approach using Lie groups and Deep Learning generates a good fit for rating transitions.
Method calibrates local volatility and stochastic short rate models for equity-rate dynamics.
problem Joint calibration of local volatility and stochastic short rate models.
method Iterative approach using semimartingale optimal transport.
result Demonstrated performance on market data using European SPX options and cap interest rate options.
Following widely used in visual recognition concept of relative attributes, the article establishes definition of the relative PCA attributes for a class of objects defined by vectors of their parameters. A new rating model (RELARM) is built using relative PCA attribute ranking functions for rating object description a…
The paper analyzes how learning rate affects SGD and provides insights into optimal rates.
problem Understanding the impact of learning rate on stochastic gradient descent.
method Developed a learning-rate-dependent stochastic differential equation (lr-dependent SDE) to analyze SGD.
result Established a linear rate of convergence for SGD and found the optimal linear rate by analyzing the spectrum of the Witten-Laplacian.
This paper models short rates with jumps using PDEs.
problem Capturing jumps and spikes in interest rates.
method PDE approach for pricing interest rate derivatives.
result Established Feynman-Kač representation and derived solutions.
We introduce an autoregressive-type model with self-modulation effects for a foreign exchange rate by separating the foreign exchange rate into a moving average rate and an uncorrelated noise. From this model we indicate that traders are mainly using strategies with weighted feedbacks of the past rates in the exchange …
Paper examines pricing and hedging for cross-currency swaps referencing backward-looking rates.
problem Pricing and hedging cross-currency swaps with backward-looking rates.
method Uses interest rate and currency futures for hedging, analyzes arbitrage-free multi-curve setting.
result Explicit pricing and hedging results for CCBS with backward-looking rates.
Numerical and analytical methods for bond pricing in short rate convergence models of interest ratesq-fin.MF
In this survey paper we discuss recent advances on short interest rate models which can be formulated in terms of a stochastic differential equation for the instantaneous interest rate (also called short rate) or a system of such equations in case the short rate is assumed to depend also on other stochastic factors. Ou…
Approximates bond option volatilities using affine short-rate models.
problem Calculating implied volatilities for bond options.
method Derive asymptotic approximation for bond option volatilities under affine short-rate dynamics.
result Accuracy of approximation validated through numerical experiments.
Rate-In dynamically adjusts dropout rates during inference to improve uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
problem Static dropout rates lead to suboptimal uncertainty estimates in neural networks.
method Rate-In dynamically adjusts dropout rates using information-theoretic principles.
result Rate-In improves calibration and sharpens uncertainty estimates compared to fixed or heuristic dropout rates.
We construct a no-arbitrage model of bond prices where the long bond is used as a numeraire. We develop bond prices and their dynamics without developing any model for the spot rate or forward rates. The model is arbitrage free and all nominal interest rates remain positive in the model. We give examples where our mode…
Cyclical learning rate improves neural machine translation performance.
problem Optimizing learning rate for neural machine translation.
method Applied cyclical learning rate to transformer-based neural networks.
result Cyclical learning rate significantly impacts neural machine translation performance.
Paper finds funding rates on BitMEX predict Bitcoin inverse swap contracts.
problem Understanding the relationship between BitMEX funding rates and Bitcoin derivatives.
method Examined Heteroskedasticity of funding rates, established Granger causality, developed GARCH models for prediction.
result Funding rates on BitMEX predict Bitcoin inverse swap contracts.
There are more than eight hundred interest rates published in China bond market every day. Which are the benchmark interest rates that have broad influences on most interest rates is a major concern for economists. In this paper, multi-variable Granger causality test is developed and applied to construct a directed net…
Examines SOFR derivatives pricing and hedging post-LIBOR discontinuation.
problem Pricing and hedging of SOFR derivatives post-LIBOR discontinuation.
method One-factor model based on Vasicek's equation for overnight interest rates dynamics.
result Arbitrage-free pricing and hedging of SOFR derivatives instruments.
New coding theorem shows achievable rate matches theoretical limit.
problem Unknown existence of encoders and decoders for RDPF.
method Used stochastic, variable-length codes to prove RDPF achievable.
result Achievable rate matches theoretical rate-distortion-perception function.
This paper analyzes the robust growth rate of leveraged ETFs under uncertain parameters.
problem Analyzing the robust long-term growth rate of leveraged ETFs with uncertain parameters.
method Derive worst-case parameters using comparison principle and martingale extraction method.
result Explicitly obtain robust long-term growth rates under various models.
The paper introduces risk consistency properties for credit ratings.
problem Promoting prudent investment decisions in credit ratings.
method Introducing and studying risk consistency properties in the framework of Choquet rating criteria.
result Characterization of Choquet risk measures and rating criteria satisfying risk consistency properties.
We introduce here for the first time the long-term swap rate, characterised as the fair rate of an overnight indexed swap with infinitely many exchanges. Furthermore we analyse the relationship between the long-term swap rate, the long-term yield, see Biagini et al. [2018], Biagini and Härtel [2014], and El Karoui et a…
Empirical study on long-term discount rates using historical bond prices.
problem Estimating long-term real interest rates and discount rates from historical bond data.
method Using Fourier transforms to derive the discount function and fitting it to historical data.
result Estimated long-term discount rates of 1.7% for UK and 2.2% for US.
Model forecasts motor vehicle collision rates with high accuracy.
problem Forecasting motor vehicle collision rates with high accuracy.
method Adopted Heston Stochastic Volatility model and extended it to account for seasonality and accelerated safety periods.
result Short-term forecasts show high accuracy (over 95%) and outperform existing models.
For environmental problems such as global warming future costs must be balanced against present costs. This is traditionally done using an exponential function with a constant discount rate, which reduces the present value of future costs. The result is highly sensitive to the choice of discount rate and has generated …
Kalman Filter in the Problem of the Exchange and the Inflation Rates Adequacy To Determining Factorsq-fin.MF
Study finds relevance of exchange and inflation rates to economic factors.
problem Determining the relevance of exchange and inflation rates to economic factors.
method Introduced concept of adequacy, established positive relation between exchange and inflation rates and other economic factors.
result Close positive relation found between exchange and inflation rates and other economic factors.
We show that different rates should be used for borrowing and discount rates, and that the risk-free rate should be used for discounting when assessing and comparing the cost of energy accross diffferent producers and technologies, on the example of photovoltaics. Recent quantitative models using the same rate for borr…
Study controls error rates of binary classifiers using hypothesis testing.
problem Traditional binary classifiers have uncontrolled error rates.
method Combines binary classification with statistical hypothesis testing.
result Trained classifiers can be made to meet target error rate thresholds.
Neural Estimation of the Rate-Distortion Function With Applications to Operational Source Codingcs.IT
Estimates rate-distortion function for large datasets using neural networks.
problem Designing lossy data compression schemes and comparing them with theoretical limits.
method Re-formulate rate-distortion objective and solve using neural networks.
result NERD accurately estimates the rate-distortion function for real-world datasets.
Model predicts ESG ratings from news articles using multivariate timeseries analysis.
problem Lack of accurate and automated methods for ESG ratings prediction.
method Multivariate timeseries analysis combined with deep learning.
result Model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting ESG ratings.
Recommender systems are widely used to predict personalized preferences of goods or services using users' past activities, such as item ratings or purchase histories. If collections of such personal activities were made publicly available, they could be used to personalize a diverse range of services, including targete…
This work models overnight rates with jumps and discontinuities, extending classical short-rate models.
problem Capturing the jump behavior and discontinuities in overnight rates for accurate modeling.
method Developed a term structure modeling framework based on overnight rates, accommodating stochastic discontinuities.
result Simple specifications can capture the jump behavior of overnight rates, and explicit valuation formulas are provided.
GALA adapts learning rates online by aligning gradients, improving deep learning model performance.
problem Fine-tuning learning rates for deep learning models requires extensive grid search.
method GALA dynamically adjusts learning rates by tracking gradient alignment and local curvature.
result GALA produces a flexible, adaptive learning rate schedule that increases when gradients align.
Stochastic gradient descent with a large initial learning rate is widely used for training modern neural net architectures. Although a small initial learning rate allows for faster training and better test performance initially, the large learning rate achieves better generalization soon after the learning rate is anne…
The paper introduces mortgage-rate-adjusted home prices to help buyers and adjust housing indices.
problem Impact of mortgage rates on home prices and property purchase decisions.
method Derives mortgage-rate-adjusted 'effective price' and constructs a price-mortgage rate neutrality line.
result Mortgage rates significantly affect home prices over long periods but not during the pandemic.
Our study employs sentiment analysis to evaluate the compatibility of Amazon.com reviews with their corresponding ratings. Sentiment analysis is the task of identifying and classifying the sentiment expressed in a piece of text as being positive or negative. On e-commerce websites such as Amazon.com, consumers can subm…
The paper uses machine learning and Lie groups to improve rating transitions and XVA calculations.
problem Improving rating transitions and XVA calculations using machine learning and Lie groups.
method Modeling rating transitions as SDEs on Lie groups, calibrating to historical and market data, applying Girsanov theorem, and using Deep Learning.
result Improves rating transitions and XVA calculations, making the model more robust.
SALSA automatically adjusts learning rates in stochastic gradient methods.
problem Automatic adjustment of learning rates in stochastic gradient methods.
method SALSA uses a line-search procedure to gradually increase the learning rate, then a statistical test to decrease it.
result SALSA matches the performance of best hand-tuned learning rate schedules in deep learning tasks.