The paper extends Merton model to price equity warrants under subdiffusive fractional Brownian motion of the short rate.
problem Equity warrant pricing under subdiffusive fractional Brownian motion of the short rate.
method The paper applies subdiffusive mechanism to analyze equity warrant in a fractional Brownian motion environment, deriving a pricing formula for equity warrant.
result The paper provides a pricing formula for equity warrants under subdiffusive fractional Brownian motion model of the short rate.
In this paper, within the framework of uncertainty theory, the valuation of equity warrants is investigated. Different from the methods of probability theory, the equity warrants pricing problem is solved by using the method of uncertain calculus. Based on the assumption that the firm price follows an uncertain differe…
Study adapts liquidity model to equity auctions, revealing accelerated event rates and reduced price impact.
problem Understanding and predicting price dynamics in equity auctions.
method Adapted latent/revealed order book framework to equity auctions, measuring order submissions, cancellations, and diffusion rates.
result Equity auctions exhibit accelerated event rates leading to reduced price impact and decreased volatility.
The study provides a practical strategy for pricing and hedging equity-release mortgages guarantees.
problem Pricing and hedging the No-Negative-Equity-Guarantee in incomplete markets.
method Discrete-time model, Excess-of-Loss reinsurance, numerical illustrations.
result Superhedge cost decreases with more lives in the portfolio, making it more realistic.
The paper assesses how equity tail risk impacts US Treasury bond returns.
problem The effects of equity tail risk on the US government bond market.
method Estimating equity tail risk using option-implied stock market volatility and assessing its predictive power in reduced-form regressions and a term structure model.
result Equity tail risk significantly predicts one-month excess returns on Treasuries.
New model values equity-linked securities with guaranteed return.
problem Valuation of equity-linked securities with guaranteed return.
method Replicate security price as sum of guaranteed amount and Asian style option price on basket.
result Analytical formulas derived for security price and hedge ratios.
Derives FPDE for equity-linked insurance pricing.
problem Calculating prices for insurance policies with complex payment histories.
method Variational techniques in functional Itô calculus.
result Derives a functional partial differential equation.
The paper uses neural networks to price complex life insurance contracts with multiple risk factors.
problem Pricing equity-linked life insurance contracts with various stochastic risk factors.
method Assuming hedging to reduce local variance, the price is expressed as a system of non-linear PDEs. Reformulated as a backward SDE with jumps, solved numerically using neural networks.
result Neural networks provide an efficient numerical solution for pricing these complex contracts.
New model for options pricing accounting for time-varying interest rates, volatility, and equity premium.
problem Inaccuracies in Black-Scholes-Merton model for real market conditions.
method Integrates stochastic variance, interest rates, and equity premium into a PDE framework.
result Derives new PDEs and approximates option prices using finite difference methods.
Study compares LSTM models with sentiment analysis for stock price prediction.
problem Efficient stock price prediction models using LSTM with sentiment analysis.
method Various types of LSTM models combined with sentiment analysis.
result Identifies the most effective model for short and long-term stock price prediction.
Equity auctions show linear price impact up to a large volume, then non-linear.
problem Understanding price impact in equity auctions.
method High-quality data analysis of Paris stock exchange auctions.
result Price impact is linear up to a large volume, then becomes non-linear.
The paper explores fairness, welfare, and equity in personalized pricing across various applications.
problem Interplay of fairness, welfare, and equity in personalized pricing based on customer features.
method Comprehensive literature review and observational metrics without underlying valuation distribution assumptions.
result Personalized pricing can expand access, improve welfare, and increase revenue or budget utilization.
Interpretable machine learning uncovers ESG's explanatory power on equity returns across sectors and capitalizations.
problem Explaining equity returns beyond market factors using ESG data.
method Interpretable machine learning models, cross-validation scheme, random company-wise validation.
result Gradient boosting models explain unaccounted price returns, with ESG data outperforming basic fundamental features.
In this paper we present formulas for the valuation of debt and equity of firms in a financial network under comonotonic endowments. We demonstrate that the comonotonic setting provides a lower bound and Jensen's inequality provides an upper bound to the price of debt under Eisenberg-Noe financial networks with bankrup…
Study asset pricing with reference-dependent preferences, finding matching equity premia.
problem Understanding asset pricing under reference-dependent preferences.
method Discrete-time consumption-based capital asset pricing model with reference-dependent preferences.
result Models can generate equity premia matching empirical estimates, showing procyclical price-dividend ratio and countercyclical equity premium.
Novel pricing method for equity-indexed annuities under uncertain volatility and stochastic interest rate.
problem Pricing equity-indexed annuities with early surrender risk under uncertain market conditions.
method Advanced financial modeling techniques, including uncertain volatility framework and Hull-White model for interest rate dynamics. Numerical algorithm using tree-based framework with local volatility optimization.
result High effectiveness of the proposed numerical algorithm compared to machine learning-based methods.
Study finds GBM model accurately predicts stock prices on Ghana Stock Exchange.
problem Investigating the suitability of GBM for modeling stock price dynamics.
method Geometric Brownian Motion model applied to weekly and monthly returns of equities listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange.
result GBM model accurately forecasts stock prices with minimal deviations, as evidenced by MSE evaluations.
Equity default-swaps pay the holder a fixed amount of money when the underlying spot level touches a (far-down) barrier during the life of the instrument. While most pricing models give reasonable results when the barrier lies within the range of liquidly traded strikes of plain-vanilla option prices, the situation is …
Bayesian MS-VAR model for pricing equity-linked life insurance products.
problem Pricing and hedging equity-linked life insurance products on maximum of several assets.
method Introduces Bayesian Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) process to model economic variables and insured's lifetime.
result Obtains net single premiums and hedging formulas for equity-linked life insurance products.
Unified framework matches equity and bond yields.
problem Inconsistency in pricing zero-coupon bonds and equity markets.
method Unified term structure of interest rates framework using put-call parity.
result Option-implied yield curves closely match treasury par yield curves.
Study improves MACD trading strategy with volume and price adjustments.
problem Signal lag and false signals in traditional MACD trading rules.
method Develops VP-MACD framework with sensitivity calibration.
result Proposed framework outperforms baseline MACD in profitability and risk-adjusted return.
This paper gives yet another definition of game-theoretic probability in the context of continuous-time idealized financial markets. Without making any probabilistic assumptions (but assuming positive and continuous price paths), we obtain a simple expression for the equity premium and derive a version of the capital a…
This paper examines pricing and hedging strategies for cross-currency equity protection swaps.
problem Dynamic requirements from EPS buyers in cross-currency equity protection swaps.
method Detailed analysis of two hedging paradigms, including separate and aggregated returns, with consideration of different types of returns.
result Proposes various hedging strategies with practical implications for EPS providers and investors.
In this paper, we develop a 4/2 stochastic volatility plus jumps model, namely, a new stochastic volatility model including the Heston model and 3/2 model as special cases. Our model is highly tractable by applying the Lie symmetries theory for PDEs, which means that the pricing procedure can be performed efficiently. …
We present a model that investigates the spontaneous emergence of randomness in equity market microstructure. The phase space analysis of our model exposes an endogenous source of fluctuation in price and volume. We formulate a control problem for maximizing price regularity and stability while minimizing entanglement …
We first investigate the evolution of opening and closing auctions volumes of US equities along the years. We then report dynamical properties of pre-auction periods: the indicative match price is strongly mean-reverting because the imbalance is; the final auction price reacts to a single auction order placement or can…
The Wiener-Hopf factorization is obtained in closed form for a phase type approximation to the CGMY Lévy process. This allows, for the approximation, exact computation of first passage times to barrier levels via Laplace transform inversion. Calibration of the CGMY model to market option prices defines the risk neutral…
Study shows integrating OFI from multiple levels improves price impact explanation but not forecasting.
problem Explaining and forecasting price movements in equity markets using OFI.
method Systematic approach to combine OFIs from multiple levels into an integrated variable, testing multi-asset models with and without cross-impact terms.
result Lagged cross-asset OFIs improve future return forecasting but not contemporaneous price impact.
We generalize Merton's asset valuation approach to systems of multiple financial firms where cross-ownership of equities and liabilities is present. The liabilities, which may include debts and derivatives, can be of differing seniority. We derive equations for the prices of equities and recovery claims under no-arbitr…
The article models financial asset returns using Gaussian mixtures and EVT-based copulas to price equity options.
problem Modeling financial asset returns and pricing equity options considering extreme values.
method Modeling marginal distributions with Gaussian mixtures and joint dependence structure with EVT-based copulas.
result The approach accurately prices various equity options on Atos and Dassault Systems actions.
Study finds no consistent return predictability using payout ratios across 16 countries.
problem Return predictability using payout ratios in various markets.
method Analysis of 16 developed countries' bond, equity, and housing markets using payout-price ratios.
result No consistent in-sample and out-of-sample performance with positive utility gain.
The paper proposes a new SDF scaled by time-varying volatility from S&P 500 options.
problem Estimating the SDF from option prices and predicting the equity premium.
method Utilizes S&P 500 options data to recover a stable, non-monotonic SDF.
result The SDF exhibits a hump on the put side, which transitions into a W-shape with maturity.
The paper shows how cross-ownership increases equity correlations during financial crises.
problem Understanding and explaining rising correlations in financial markets during crises.
method Examined interlinkages among firms through a financial network, mathematically relating equity correlations to asset correlations and network sensitivity.
result Equity correlations are higher than asset correlations, and this relationship is independent of the equities level.
Equity risk premium is a central component of every risk and return model in finance and a key input to estimate costs of equity and capital in both corporate finance and valuation. An article by Damodaran examines three broad approaches for estimating the equity risk premium. The first is survey based, it consists in …
Since exchange economy considerably varies in the market assets, asset prices have become an attractive research area for investigating and modeling ambiguous and uncertain information in today markets. This paper proposes a new generative uncertainty mechanism based on the Bayesian Inference and Correntropy (BIC) tech…
Valuation adjustments are nowadays a common practice to include credit and liquidity effects in option pricing. Funding costs arising from collateral procedures, hedging strategies and taxes are added to option prices to take into account the production cost of financial contracts so that a profitability analysis can b…
We propose a unified framework for equity and credit risk modeling, where the default time is a doubly stochastic random time with intensity driven by an underlying affine factor process. This approach allows for flexible interactions between the defaultable stock price, its stochastic volatility and the default intens…
Investor attention predicts global equity market volatility during Ukraine invasion.
problem Predicting global equity market volatility during geopolitical events.
method Event-specific attention indices based on Google Trends, analyzed across 51 global equity markets.
result Investor attention significantly predicts volatility in countries with higher economic openness to Russia and closer to it.
Equity options are known to be notoriously difficult to price accurately, and even with the development of established mathematical models there are many assumptions that must be made about the underlying processes driving market movements. As such, the theoretical prices outputted by these models are often slightly di…
The study uses equity order flow to forecast stock returns and resolves the liquidity premium puzzle.
problem The liquidity premium and its relation to investment horizons.
method Directly estimated Kyle's price-impact coefficient λ from daily equity order flow data.
result Signed order flow predicts stock returns, with volume volatility predicting lower returns.
We use a continuous version of the standard deviation premium principle for pricing in incomplete equity markets by assuming that the investor issuing an unhedgeable derivative security requires compensation for this risk in the form of a pre-specified instantaneous Sharpe ratio. First, we apply our method to price opt…
This paper develops a valuation model for private companies.
problem Lack of pricing and hedging models for private companies.
method Dynamic Gordon growth model, Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimators, Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm.
result Closed-form pricing and hedging formulas for private companies.
We solve in closed-form an equilibrium model in which a finite number of exponential investors continuously consume and trade with price-impact. Compared to the analogous Pareto-efficient equilibrium model, price-impact has an amplification effect on risk-sharing distortions that helps resolve the interest rate puzzle …
Study finds key investing characteristics for success in equity markets.
problem Understanding what traits lead to financial success in equity markets.
method Exploratory factor analysis and multiple linear regression on 403 respondents' data.
result Investing characteristics significantly impact individual investors' excess return.
The study reveals unspanned risks in equity option risk premiums, explaining negative premiums for certain options.
problem Explaining negative risk premiums for certain equity option types.
method Developed a decomposition of equity option risk premiums, operationalized the pricing kernel process, and incorporated unspanned risks.
result Empirical evidence supports the presence of unspanned risks, explaining negative risk premiums for certain options.
This paper considers the case of pricing discretely-sampled variance swaps under the class of equity-interest rate hybridization. Our modeling framework consists of the equity which follows the dynamics of the Heston stochastic volatility model, and the stochastic interest rate is driven by the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR)…
Machine learning models outperform traditional CAPM in forecasting financial asset prices.
problem Predicting and forecasting financial asset prices and returns.
method Comparison of modern Machine Learning algorithms with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) on U.S. equities data.
result Implemented Machine Learning models significantly outperform the CAPM on out-of-sample test data.
Unified model for equity option pricing and interest-rate risk assessment.
problem Pricing short and medium-term equity options and interest-rate risk.
method Developed a stochastic modeling framework using Heston, Bates, and CIR models, calibrated using Fourier inversion and FFT.
result Calibration stability and convergence of parameter sets across models.