The paper addresses insurance pricing by improving machine learning models and metrics.
problem Lack of balance and confusion in insurance model performance metrics.
method Introduces autocalibration and Tweedie deviance minimization for insurance pricing models.
result Autocalibration corrects bias and ensures balance on local scales.
This paper generalizes beta divergence beyond its classical form associated with power variance functions of Tweedie models. Generalized form is represented by a compact definite integral as a function of variance function of the exponential dispersion model. This compact integral form simplifies derivations of many pr…
A novel spatio-temporal graph neural network with a learnable Tweedie head improves vessel traffic flow prediction in sparse maritime data.
problem Accurate vessel traffic flow prediction in sparse maritime data.
method A model-agnostic learnable Tweedie head attached to ST-GNN backbones.
result The proposed head consistently improves RMSE across multiple ST-GNN backbones, especially on non-zero events.
Federated learning calibrates insurance indices from renewable energy producers' data.
problem Calibrating parametric insurance indices under heterogeneous renewable energy production losses.
method Federated learning framework using Tweedie GLMs and distributed optimization.
result Federated learning recovers comparable index coefficients under moderate heterogeneity.
This work proposes the Bregman-Tweedie classification model and analyzes the domain structure of the extended exponential function, an extension of the classic generalized exponential function with additional scaling parameter, and related high-level mathematical structures, such as the Bregman-Tweedie loss function an…
We describe the underlying probabilistic interpretation of alpha and beta divergences. We first show that beta divergences are inherently tied to Tweedie distributions, a particular type of exponential family, known as exponential dispersion models. Starting from the variance function of a Tweedie model, we outline how…
New method denoises images without clean reference using Tweedie distributions.
problem Image denoising without clean reference images.
method Combining Tweedie distributions, Noise2Score, and saddle point approximation.
result General closed-form denoising formula for various noise distributions.
The study uses Gaussian Processes with Tweedie likelihood for forecasting intermittent time series.
problem Forecasting intermittent time series with high accuracy and flexibility.
method The approach combines Gaussian Processes with two forecast distributions: negative binomial and Tweedie.
result TweedieGP provides better probabilistic forecasts, especially for high quantiles.
This work extends Tweedie's formulae to non-Gaussian processes for better diffusion model generation.
problem Limited exploration of non-Gaussian diffusion models and corresponding Tweedie's formulae.
method Extended Tweedie's formulae to geometric Brownian motion, squared Bessel, and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross processes.
result Demonstrated potential of non-Gaussian models in image and financial time series generation.
Deviance Voronoi residuals improve earthquake insurance risk assessment.
problem Assessing earthquake insurance risk using spatio-temporal point process models.
method Extended Voronoi residuals and created simulation-based approach.
result Proposed formula for country-wide minimum capital test.
The Tweedie Compound Poisson-Gamma model is routinely used for modeling non-negative continuous data with a discrete probability mass at zero. Mixed models with random effects account for the covariance structure related to the grouping hierarchy in the data. An important application of Tweedie mixed models is pricing …
Deviance-style normalization for sparse, jointly overdispersed count matrices
problem Jointly overdispersed count matrices
method Dirichlet-multinomial deviance residualization
result Preserves exact sparsity, evaluates in constant time, recovers multinomial residual
Extends denoising and score estimation to energy models via Tweedie's formula.
problem Linking denoising and score estimation for a wider range of distributions.
method Derives a fundamental identity connecting energy score derivatives and scores.
result Establishes a new identity for energy scores analogous to Tweedie's formula.
Extends matrix factorization for deviance-based losses with GLM theory.
problem Improving data loss models beyond squared error.
method Adapts GLM theory to matrix factorization for deviance losses.
result Strong consistency and robustness of the proposed decomposition.
Enhanced Tweedie model for insurance claims using CatBoost.
problem Accurately modeling aggregate claims with zero-inflated data.
method Refined Tweedie model with boosting methods in CatBoost.
result Marked improvement in model performance for insurance analytics.
Proposes a new model to predict travel demand with zero-inflated and long-tail characteristics.
problem Sparse and long-tailed travel demand data with many zeros.
method Spatial-Temporal Tweedie Graph Neural Network (STTD) using Tweedie distribution.
result STTD provides accurate predictions and precise confidence intervals.
This paper aims to review the methodology behind the generalized linear models which are used in analyzing the actuarial situations instead of the ordinary multiple linear regression. We introduce how to assess the adequacy of the model which includes comparing nested models using the deviance and the scaled deviance. …
Paper introduces STSL, a second-order Tweedie sampler for efficient posterior sampling in inverse problems.
problem Computational challenges in sampling from posterior distributions using latent diffusion models.
method Introduces STSL, a novel second-order Tweedie sampler with tractable reverse process.
result STSL achieves 4X and 8X reduction in neural function evaluations compared to state-of-the-art solvers.
This paper improves sales forecasting on Tmall using Fourier decomposition and Tweedie distribution optimization.
problem Sales forecasting for retailers on Tmall.
method Fourier decomposition for seasonality extraction and Tweedie distribution optimization.
result Improved sales forecasting results using optimized models.
New methods for quantifying insurance claim cost uncertainty using LightGBM and GLMs.
problem Quantifying prediction uncertainty in insurance claim costs.
method Proposed non-conformity measures for GLMs and GBMs with Tweedie loss.
result Locally weighted Pearson residuals outperform other methods in maintaining nominal coverage with smallest average width.
Discovering the causal structure among a set of variables is a fundamental problem in many areas of science. In this paper, we propose Kernel Conditional Deviance for Causal Inference (KCDC) a fully nonparametric causal discovery method based on purely observational data. From a novel interpretation of the notion of as…
Enhances normal mean estimation with side info using NIT approach.
problem Compound estimation of normal means with side information.
method Empirical Bayes, nonparametric integrative Tweedie (NIT) approach.
result NIT approach improves estimation risk and convergence rate with increasing auxiliary data.
Unified NMF models for various noise distributions, improving feature extraction.
problem Inadequate assumptions for NMF under complex data distributions.
method Unified framework using MM-algorithms for traditional and convex NMF under Tweedie and Negative Binomial models.
result Unified multiplicative update rules for all models, including novel updates for convex NMF.
Model analyzes cooccurrence data for recommender systems and item relevance.
problem High-dimensional cooccurrence data from online platforms.
method Shared parameter Alternating Tweedie (SA-Tweedie) model with Fisher scoring and learning rate adjustment.
result SA-Tweedie model outperforms other methods in optimizing parameters.
In this paper we examine the claims reserving problem using Tweedie's compound Poisson model. We develop the maximum likelihood and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation approaches to fit the model and then compare the estimated models under different scenarios. The key point we demonstrate relates to the compar…
A new SBM for non-negative zero-inflated edge weights in networks.
problem Modeling international trading networks with non-negative zero-inflated edge weights.
method Restricted Tweedie distribution and nodal information accounting.
result Efficient two-step algorithm for estimating covariate effects.
Paper addresses unbalanced data in common shock models for loss reserving.
problem Complications in capturing structural dependence with unbalanced data.
method Introduces a common shock Tweedie approach for unbalanced data.
result Better balance of common shock proportions and parsimonious solution.
Paper introduces NICc for fast cluster-based validation of prediction models.
problem Validation of prediction models on clustered data.
method Derived NICc to approximate leave-one-cluster-out deviance for standard regression models.
result NICc provides more accurate model size and variable selection, especially with strong clustering.
New methods reduce bias in machine learning predictions for causal inference without extra data.
problem Machine learning predictions from satellite data shrink toward the mean, leading to biased causal estimates.
method Two post-hoc correction methods: Linear Calibration Correction (LCC) and Tweedie's approach, reduce shrinkage-induced bias.
result Tweedie's method yields nearly unbiased treatment-effect estimates, enabling multiple trials with a single map.
A method to estimate high order derivatives of data distributions from samples.
problem Estimating high order derivatives of data distributions efficiently and accurately.
method Generalizing denoising score matching via Tweedie's formula to estimate higher order derivatives.
result Models trained with the proposed method can approximate second order derivatives more efficiently and accurately than via automatic differentiation.
Global models outperform local models in forecasting intermittent time series.
problem Forecasting intermittent time series with zeros in supply chains.
method Comparison of state-of-the-art probabilistic local and global models on five datasets.
result TiDE, a simple neural network architecture, achieves the best accuracy among global models.
Improved sampling for Diffusion Models by accounting for covariance.
problem Sampling quality degradation in few-step Diffusion Models.
method Covariance-aware sampler using Tweedie's formula and Fourier-space decomposition.
result Consistently superior samples compared to state-of-the-art samplers.
Very few K-nearest-neighbor (KNN) ensembles exist, despite the efficacy of this approach in regression, classification, and outlier detection. Those that do exist focus on bagging features, rather than varying k or bagging observations; it is unknown whether varying k or bagging observations can improve prediction. Giv…
We provide conditions for the existence and the unicity of strictly stationary solutions of the usual Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH models (DCC-GARCH). The proof is based on Tweedie's (1988) criteria, after having rewritten DCC-GARCH models as nonlinear Markov chains. Moreover, we study the existence of their f…
Bayesian model clusters brain activity time series.
problem Heterogeneous multivariate time series in brain imaging.
method Group-based Bayesian mixture of smoothing splines with covariate effects.
result Distinct brain activity patterns identified.
Improved diffusion models for inverse problems by integrating data consistency constraints.
problem Errors in earlier steps of diffusion models during posterior sampling.
method Guided Decoupled Posterior Sampling (GDPS) with data consistency constraint.
result GDPS achieves state-of-the-art performance, improving accuracy over existing methods.
The paper discusses methods for interval estimation of coefficients in penalized regression models for insurance data.
problem Valid inference on coefficients after feature selection in GLM family for insurance data.
method Proposes methodologies for constructing confidence intervals of coefficients after feature selection in GLM family.
result Valid inference on coefficients after feature selection in GLM family for insurance data.
New method quantifies uncertainty in denoising models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in denoising models.
method Derives a relation between posterior moments and derivatives, uses it for efficient uncertainty quantification.
result Efficient computation of principal components and full marginal distributions of the posterior.
DSM on manifolds removes singularities and computes small-noise expansions.
problem DSM on manifolds with singular noise.
method Rao-Blackwellized score matching, nearest-point projection, intrinsic Riemannian score.
result Canonical target equals intrinsic Riemannian score up to a small correction.
New method uses kernel deviance measures to discover causal relationships in heterogeneous data.
problem Discovering causal relationships in complex, heterogeneous datasets.
method KIIM-HT, a novel score measure based on heterogeneous transformations of RKHS embeddings.
result KIIM-HT outperforms previous methods in causal discovery tasks.
Estimates dependent parameters using Markovian dependence with shrinkage.
problem Estimating dependent parameters from a hidden Markov model.
method Developed a novel non-parametric shrinkage algorithm combining Tweedie-based ideas and efficient state estimation.
result Superior performance compared to non-shrinkage methods in hidden Markov models.
EGO-MDA identifies optimal spectral-bands for process discrimination.
problem Optimal spectral-bands for process discrimination.
method EGO-MDA, an unsupervised method using EGO and Mixture Discriminant Analysis.
result EGO-MDA achieves at least 70% improvement in median deviance.
The problem of subgroups is ubiquitous in scientific research (ex. disease heterogeneity, spatial distributions in ecology...), and piecewise regression is one way to deal with this phenomenon. Morse-Smale regression offers a way to partition the regression function based on level sets of a defined function and that fu…
New denoisers improve signal recovery from noisy data without knowing noise distribution.
problem Denoising signals when only noise level is known, not distribution.
method Universal denoisers that shrink PY toward PX with higher-order accuracy. result Achieves O(σ4) and O(σ6) accuracy in matching generalized moments and densities. New method accelerates diffusion models for broader target distributions.
problem Current diffusion models have limited acceleration for certain target distributions.
method Developed a novel accelerated stochastic DDPM sampler.
result Achieved accelerated performance for three broad distribution classes.
Study optimizes CANN for actuarial tasks using RSM.
problem Optimizing hyperparameters for neural networks in actuarial science.
method Factorial design and response surface methodology (RSM).
result Reduced hyperparameter optimization from 288 to 188, achieving near-optimal performance.
We study online learning under logarithmic loss with regular parametric models. Hedayati and Bartlett (2012b) showed that a Bayesian prediction strategy with Jeffreys prior and sequential normalized maximum likelihood (SNML) coincide and are optimal if and only if the latter is exchangeable, and if and only if the opti…
Horseshoe priors improve small area estimation by borrowing strength globally but locally.
problem Improving precision of small area estimators through global-local borrowing of strength.
method Developed a tail-robust horseshoe model for Fay-Herriot small area estimation, using heteroscedastic Tweedie identity and regular variation theory.
result The horseshoe model outperforms structured Gaussian smoothing on strongly spatial data, identifying exceptional areas that smoothing suppresses.