A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper analyzes financial market turbulence using mathematical physics.
New turbulence index using TDA detects financial market transitions.
This paper examines cryptocurrency integration with traditional markets, showing how network structure and turbulence influence cross-asset spillovers.
The financial market and turbulence have been broadly compared on account of the same quantitative methods and several common stylized facts they shared. In this paper, the She-Leveque (SL) hierarchy, proposed to explain the anomalous scaling exponents deviated from Kolmogorov monofractal scaling of the velocity fluctu…
We analyze whether the prediction of the fractal markets hypothesis about a dominance of specific investment horizons during turbulent times holds. To do so, we utilize the continuous wavelet transform analysis and obtained wavelet power spectra which give the crucial information about the variance distribution across …
Causal-NECO VaR improves financial risk assessment under market turbulence.
A time series model for the FX dynamics is presented which takes into account structural peculiarities of the market, namely its heterogeneity and an information flow from long to short time horizons. The model emerges from an analogy between FX dynamics and hydrodynamic turbulence. The heterogeneity of the market is m…
This study constructs an integrated early warning system (EWS) that identifies and predicts stock market turbulence. Based on switching ARCH (SWARCH) filtering probabilities of the high volatility regime, the proposed EWS first classifies stock market crises according to an indicator function with thresholds dynamicall…
Study improves stock return prediction by switching between economic states, outperforming traditional methods.
The main aim of this work is to incorporate selected findings from behavioural finance into a Heterogeneous Agent Model using the Brock and Hommes (1998) framework. Behavioural patterns are injected into an asset pricing framework through the so-called `Break Point Date', which allows us to examine their direct impact.…
Improved eigenvalue distribution method for financial data.
We study the relation between the trading behavior of agents and volatility in toy markets of adaptive inductively rational agents. We show that excess volatility, in such simplified markets, arises as a consequence of {\em i)} the neglect of market impact implicit in price taking behavior and of {\em ii)} excessive re…
Catastrophic events, though rare, do occur and when they occur, they have devastating effects. It is, therefore, of utmost importance to understand the complexity of the underlying dynamics and signatures of catastrophic events, such as market crashes. For deeper understanding, we choose the US and Japanese markets fro…
We describe tests validating progress made toward acceleration and automation of hydrodynamic codes in the regime of developed turbulence by three Deep Learning (DL) Neural Network (NN) schemes trained on Direct Numerical Simulations of turbulence. Even the bare DL solutions, which do not take into account any physics …
Study examines market response to concentrated policy communication using entropy measures.
A new approach to the understanding of complex behavior of financial markets index using tools from thermodynamics and statistical physics is developed. Physical complexity, a magnitude rooted in Kolmogorov-Chaitin theory is applied to binary sequences built up from real time series of financial markets indexes. The st…
A new approach to the understanding of the complex behavior of financial markets index using tools from thermodynamics and statistical physics is developed. Physical complexity, a magnitude rooted in the Kolmogorov-Chaitin theory is applied to binary sequences built up from real time series of financial markets indices…
Deep learning compares turbulence models in plasma physics.
The subject of the present article is the study of correlations between large insurance companies and their contribution to systemic risk in the insurance sector. Our main goal is to analyze the conditional structure of the correlation on the European insurance market and to compare systemic risk in different regimes o…
We report a general technique to study a given experimental time series with superstatistics. Crucial for the applicability of the superstatistics concept is the existence of a parameter that fluctuates on a large time scale as compared to the other time scales of the complex system under consideration. The propose…
We present a model of financial markets originally proposed for a turbulent flow, as a dynamic basis of its intermittent behavior. Time evolution of the price change is assumed to be described by Brownian motion in a power-law potential, where the `temperature' fluctuates slowly. The model generally yields a fat-tailed…
We investigate whether fractal markets hypothesis and its focus on liquidity and invest- ment horizons give reasonable predictions about dynamics of the financial markets during the turbulences such as the Global Financial Crisis of late 2000s. Compared to the mainstream efficient markets hypothesis, fractal markets hy…
GyroSwin models plasma turbulence with neural nets, reducing costs and capturing neglected nonlinearities.
Study on complex tori foliations and flat geometries.
We propose a model for the credit and liquidity risks faced by clearing members of Central Counterparty Clearing houses (CCPs). This model aims to capture the features of: gap risk; feedback between clearing member default, market volatility and margining requirements; the different risks faced by various types of mark…
Neural surrogates speed up 5D gyrokinetic simulations of plasma turbulence.
NN-Turb generates turbulent velocity statistics using neural networks.
This paper proposes a multi-scale Markov-Switching GARCH model for EUR/USD volatility.
Transfer learning improves chaotic dynamics predictions with less data.
New Bayesian method for estimating portfolio VaR and CVaR that adapts to volatility changes.
Physics-informed ML models improve turbulence understanding in fusion plasmas.
Neural networks predict flow and elastic stresses in viscoelastic turbulence.
While deep learning has shown tremendous success in a wide range of domains, it remains a grand challenge to incorporate physical principles in a systematic manner to the design, training, and inference of such models. In this paper, we aim to predict turbulent flow by learning its highly nonlinear dynamics from spatio…
Multiplicative random cascade model naturally reproduces the intermittency or multifractality, which is frequently shown among hierarchical complex systems such as turbulence and financial markets. As described herein, we investigate the validity of a multiplicative hierarchical random cascade model through an empirica…
xVAE models extreme turbulence events in turbulent flows.
Researchers use quantum chaos and RMT to analyze turbulence, revealing unique scaling laws.
Study predicts turbulent electric fields in fusion plasmas using deep learning.
The study explains how market-makers' hedging affects stock volatility during gamma-squeeze events.
Novel framework uses causality for financial forecasting.
Neural network predicts turbulence near-wall regions efficiently.
Using high frequency data, we have studied empirically the change of volatility, also called volatility derivative, for various time horizons. In particular, the correlation between the volatility derivative and the volatility realized in the next time period is a measure of the response function of the market particip…
The concepts of scale invariance, self-similarity and scaling have been fruitfully applied to the study of price fluctuations in financial markets. After a brief review of the properties of stable Levy distributions and their applications to market data we indicate the shortcomings of such models and describe the trunc…
The understanding of the dynamics of the velocity gradients in turbulent flows is critical to understanding various non-linear turbulent processes. The pressure-Hessian and the viscous-Laplacian govern the evolution of the velocity-gradients and are known to be non-local in nature. Over the years, several simplified dy…
Multifractality is ubiquitously observed in complex natural and socioeconomic systems. Multifractal analysis provides powerful tools to understand the complex nonlinear nature of time series in diverse fields. Inspired by its striking analogy with hydrodynamic turbulence, from which the idea of multifractality originat…
Three physics-constrained regression exercises for image velocimetry and turbulence modeling.
No projective structure found on foliations of elliptic curves.
Convolutional networks predict turbulence from wall quantities.
LSTM-MDNs improve risk forecasting during turbulent periods.