A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Enhances solar flare prediction with advanced preprocessing and contrastive learning.
The paper explains how language models acquire complex skills through scaling laws and statistical analysis.
MOVDA improves skill ratings by considering margin of victory deviations.
Paper learns skill distributions from game outcomes, proving minimax optimality.
Study shows class imbalance and temporal coherence impact solar flare analysis.
New method boosts skill learning by encouraging optimistic exploration.
The paper examines skill estimation and variance under model misspecification in IRT.
New methods for skill rating in sports using state-space models.
Bayesian model identifies skill difficulties and student subgroups in engineering education.
Enhances NOAA's Geospace model with machine learning for predicting ground magnetic perturbations.
Sharpe ratio (sometimes also referred to as information ratio) is widely used in asset management to compare and benchmark funds and asset managers. It computes the ratio of the (excess) net return over the strategy standard deviation. However, the elements to compute the Sharpe ratio, namely, the expected returns and …
Enhanced visibility forecasts using CAMS data improve accuracy.
ReSkill reconciles RL skill creation with policy optimization.
Hierarchical MARL learns complementary skills for team coordination.
The predictive performance of supervised learning algorithms depends on the quality of labels. In a typical label collection process, multiple annotators provide subjective noisy estimates of the "truth" under the influence of their varying skill-levels and biases. Blindly treating these noisy labels as the ground trut…
Employers actively look for talents having not only specific hard skills but also various soft skills. To analyze the soft skill demands on the job market, it is important to be able to detect soft skill phrases from job advertisements automatically. However, a naive matching of soft skill phrases can lead to false pos…
The increased usage of solar energy places additional importance on forecasts of solar radiation. Solar panel power production is primarily driven by the amount of solar radiation and it is therefore important to have accurate forecasts of solar radiation. Accurate forecasts that also give information on the forecast u…
In this paper, the performance of three deep learning methods for predicting short-term evolution and for reproducing the long-term statistics of a multi-scale spatio-temporal Lorenz 96 system is examined. The methods are: echo state network (a type of reservoir computing, RC-ESN), deep feed-forward artificial neural n…
Bayesian nonparametrics enables dynamic skill discovery from expert data.
Random feature maps improve forecasting of chaotic dynamical systems.
We present a novel solution to the problem of simulation-to-real transfer, which builds on recent advances in robot skill decomposition. Rather than focusing on minimizing the simulation-reality gap, we learn a set of diverse policies that are parameterized in a way that makes them easily reusable. This diversity and p…
We introduce the Adaptive Skills, Adaptive Partitions (ASAP) framework that (1) learns skills (i.e., temporally extended actions or options) as well as (2) where to apply them. We believe that both (1) and (2) are necessary for a truly general skill learning framework, which is a key building block needed to scale up t…
CNNs improve wind speed forecasts in the Netherlands.
Deep reinforcement learning has demonstrated increasing capabilities for continuous control problems, including agents that can move with skill and agility through their environment. An open problem in this setting is that of developing good strategies for integrating or merging policies for multiple skills, where each…
This paper combines and improves probabilistic forecasts of wind speeds using advanced statistical methods.
Researchers study how skills are learned in neural networks using physics principles.
Investigates the use of Information Coefficient as a stock selection model performance measure.
Acquiring new robot motor skills is cumbersome, as learning a skill from scratch and without prior knowledge requires the exploration of a large space of motor configurations. Accordingly, for learning a new task, time could be saved by restricting the parameter search space by initializing it with the solution of a si…
Humans are able to perform a myriad of sophisticated tasks by drawing upon skills acquired through prior experience. For autonomous agents to have this capability, they must be able to extract reusable skills from past experience that can be recombined in new ways for subsequent tasks. Furthermore, when controlling com…
ABC method improves subseasonal weather forecasting by 60-90%.
Simulation-to-real transfer is an important strategy for making reinforcement learning practical with real robots. Successful sim-to-real transfer systems have difficulty producing policies which generalize across tasks, despite training for thousands of hours equivalent real robot time. To address this shortcoming, we…
A planning approach learns skills from interactions, balancing exploration and exploitation.
Spaced repetition is among the most studied learning strategies in the cognitive science literature. It consists in temporally distributing exposure to an information so as to improve long-term memorization. Providing students with an adaptive and personalized distributed practice schedule would benefit more than just …
Machine learning improves cloud cover forecasting.
Integrates skills and world models for efficient task solving and transfer.
New algorithm trains neural nets on simple skills to learn complex tasks faster.
EDL discovers state-covering skills without relying on task rewards.
Purpose: Manual feedback from senior surgeons observing less experienced trainees is a laborious task that is very expensive, time-consuming and prone to subjectivity. With the number of surgical procedures increasing annually, there is an unprecedented need to provide an accurate, objective and automatic evaluation of…
Sloth predicts LLM performance using latent skills across families.
The paper presents a method for personalized exercise recommendations that improves learner skill gain.
We introduce a method for constructing skills capable of solving tasks drawn from a distribution of parameterized reinforcement learning problems. The method draws example tasks from a distribution of interest and uses the corresponding learned policies to estimate the topology of the lower-dimensional piecewise-smooth…
Hierarchical reinforcement learning is a promising approach to tackle long-horizon decision-making problems with sparse rewards. Unfortunately, most methods still decouple the lower-level skill acquisition process and the training of a higher level that controls the skills in a new task. Leaving the skills fixed can le…
For robots to coexist with humans in a social world like ours, it is crucial that they possess human-like social interaction skills. Programming a robot to possess such skills is a challenging task. In this paper, we propose a Multimodal Deep Q-Network (MDQN) to enable a robot to learn human-like interaction skills thr…
Pre-trained language model boosts RL efficiency.
We consider worker skill estimation for the single-coin Dawid-Skene crowdsourcing model. In practice, skill-estimation is challenging because worker assignments are sparse and irregular due to the arbitrary and uncontrolled availability of workers. We formulate skill estimation as a rank-one correlation-matrix completi…
Paper learns versatile balancing and recovery motions for humanoid robots.
Conventionally, model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) aims to learn a global model for the dynamics of the environment. A good model can potentially enable planning algorithms to generate a large variety of behaviors and solve diverse tasks. However, learning an accurate model for complex dynamical systems is diffi…
Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA) games are among the most played digital games in the world. In these games, teams of players fight against each other in arena environments, and the gameplay is focused on tactical combat. Mastering MOBAs requires extensive practice, as is exemplified in the popular MOBA Defence o…