A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We prove a central limit theorem for the components of the largest eigenvectors of the adjacency matrix of a finite-dimensional random dot product graph whose true latent positions are unknown. In particular, we follow the methodology outlined in \citet{sussman2012universally} to construct consistent estimates for the …
In this paper we present an optimization-based view of distributed parameter estimation and observational social learning in networks. Agents receive a sequence of random, independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) signals, each of which individually may not be informative about the underlying true state, but the…
We find a remarkable agreement between the statistics of a randomly divided interval and the observed statistical patterns and distributions found in horse racing betting markets. We compare the distribution of implied winning odds, the average true winning probabilities, the implied odds conditional on a win, and the …
The paper analyzes k-means clustering for missing data, proving statistical guarantees under MCAR.
problem Statistical guarantees for k-means clustering with missing data, especially under Missing Completely at Random (MCAR).
method Established n-excess risk bound and consistency of cluster centers under general missing mechanisms; derived n-convergence rate and asymptotic normality for MCAR.
result Achieving n-rate and converging to true cluster centers requires distinct true cluster centers in every dimension under MCAR.
A random group contains many subgroups which are isomorphic to the fundamental group of a compact hyperbolic 3-manifold with totally geodesic boundary. These subgroups can be taken to be quasi-isometrically embedded. This is true both in the few relators model, and the density model of random groups (at any density les…
Many scientific and engineering challenges -- ranging from personalized medicine to customized marketing recommendations -- require an understanding of treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric causal forest for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects that extends Breiman's widely us…
We consider a network of agents that aim to learn some unknown state of the world using private observations and exchange of beliefs. At each time, agents observe private signals generated based on the true unknown state. Each agent might not be able to distinguish the true state based only on her private observations.…
The random matrix theory method of planar Gaussian diagrammatic expansion is applied to find the mean spectral density of the Hermitian equal-time and non-Hermitian time-lagged cross-covariance estimators, firstly in the form of master equations for the most general multivariate Gaussian system, secondly for seven part…
We obtain general, exact formulas for the overlaps between the eigenvectors of large correlated random matrices, with additive or multiplicative noise. These results have potential applications in many different contexts, from quantum thermalisation to high dimensional statistics. We find that the overlaps only depend …
The true online TD(λ) algorithm has recently been proposed (van Seijen and Sutton, 2014) as a universal replacement for the popular TD(λ) algorithm, in temporal-difference learning and reinforcement learning. True online TD(λ) has better theoretical properties than conventional TD(λ), and the expectation is that it als…
LMs perform poorly in true few-shot learning without held-out examples.
problem Evaluating few-shot performance of language models without access to held-out examples.
method Evaluated two model selection criteria (cross-validation and minimum description length) for choosing LM prompts and hyperparameters in true few-shot learning.
result Selection criteria often prefer models that perform worse than random selection, suggesting overestimation of few-shot ability.
We study the convex duality method for robust utility maximization in the presence of a random endowment. When the underlying price process is a locally bounded semimartingale, we show that the fundamental duality relation holds true for a wide class of utility functions on the whole real line and unbounded random endo…
A parameterization that is a modified version of a previous work is proposed for the returns and correlation matrix of financial time series and its properties are studied. This parameterization allows easy introduction of non-stationarity and it shows several of the characteristics of the true, observed realizations, …
Paper studies tensor models using random matrix theory.
problem Analyzing asymmetric order-d spiked tensor models with Gaussian noise.
method Uses variational definition of singular vectors and values, constructs equivalent spiked symmetric block-wise random matrix from tensor contractions.
result Characterizes asymptotic singular values and alignments of singular vectors with true spike components.
For n≥4 we show that generic closed Riemannian n-manifolds have no nontrivial totally geodesic submanifolds, answering a question of Spivak. An immediate consequence is a severe restriction on the isometry group of a generic Riemannian metric. Both results are widely believed to be true, but we are not aware of…
In markets for online advertising, some advertisers pay only when users respond to ads. So publishers estimate ad response rates and multiply by advertiser bids to estimate expected revenue for showing ads. Since these estimates may be inaccurate, the publisher risks not selecting the ad for each ad call that would max…
We present a general method to detect and extract from a finite time sample statistically meaningful correlations between input and output variables of large dimensionality. Our central result is derived from the theory of free random matrices, and gives an explicit expression for the interval where singular values are…