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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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174348521695 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for True Average Causal Effect

New method removes interference bias in causal models.

problem Interference bias impedes causal effect identification in real-world settings.
method Novel definition of causal models with local interference, semi-parametric assumptions.
result True Average Causal Effect can be identified in certain semi-parametric models with local interference.

Study identifies conditions for proxy adjustment in confounded binary treatment outcomes.

problem Average causal effect estimation with a non-differentially mismeasured binary confounder.
method Identifies conditions for proxy adjustment in the presence of a non-differentially mismeasured binary confounder.
result Adjusting for a non-differentially mismeasured binary proxy can improve estimation of the average causal effect.

New probabilistic approaches offer recourse recommendations even when causal models are imperfect.

problem Limited causal knowledge makes guaranteeing algorithmic recourse impossible.
method Two probabilistic approaches: Bayesian model averaging and average effect computation.
result Probabilistic approaches lead to more reliable recourse recommendations.

Study evaluates the impact of academic support center's face-to-face assistance on student performance.

problem Underestimation of Academic Support Center's true impact due to group bias.
method Applied causal inference theory and T-learner to evaluate conditional average treatment effect (CATE) of F2F personal assistance.
result Developed a new CATE function that depends on the number of F2F sessions, predicting improved CATE performance.

Method bounds continuous-valued treatment effects when confounding variables are hidden.

problem Inferring causal effects of continuous treatments when hidden confounders are present.
method Novel methodology to bound average and conditional average continuous-valued treatment effects.
result Method gives tighter coverage of true dose-response curve than existing methods.

Bayesian model averaging improves causal effect estimation by averaging over multiple models.

problem Estimating causal effects under linear Structural Causal Models (SCMs).
method Bayesian model averaging using Gaussian scale mixture distributions for computational efficiency.
result Bayesian model averaging is optimal for causal effect estimation.

Study develops method for estimating causal effects in continuous variables.

problem Lack of methods for estimating causal effects in continuous variables.
method Develops a method independent of data generating models for continuous variable interventions.
result Preserves identifiability of data and applies to any generating models.

CDA framework infers channel influence from aggregated data without user identifiers.

problem Lack of user-level path data due to privacy regulations and platform restrictions.
method CDA integrates PCMCI for causal discovery and Structural Causal Model for effect estimation.
result CDA achieves strong accuracy in estimating channel influence, even under structural uncertainty.

Paper identifies and estimates CAPCEs in continuous treatment settings.

problem Estimating heterogeneous causal effects of continuous treatments.
method Instrumental variable approach to identify CAPCEs under weaker conditions.
result Developed three families of CAPCE estimators with statistical properties analyzed.

CDVAE estimates treatment effects over time by accounting for unobserved variables.

problem Estimating treatment effects over time in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder (CDVAE) that addresses unconfoundedness and unobserved heterogeneity.
result CDVAE outperforms existing methods in estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs).

Dynamic CBDT improves treatment effect estimation in clinical data.

problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in observational data with high accuracy and interpretability.
method Dynamic Regularized Causal Boosted Decision Trees (CBDT) integrating variance regularization and calibration.
result Significantly improved estimation accuracy and reliable coverage of true treatment effects.

DiD-BCF model improves causal inference in panel data with robust non-parametric methods.

problem Challenges in Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimation, especially heterogeneous treatment effects and non-linearities.
method Difference-in-Differences Bayesian Causal Forest (DiD-BCF) with PTA-based reparameterization.
result DiD-BCF provides superior performance and uncovers significant heterogeneity in treatment effects.

Study functional confounders in causal inference, enabling estimable effects.

problem Causal inference challenges with functional confounders violating positivity.
method Functional interventions, functional positivity, gradient fields, Level-set Orthogonal Descent Estimation (LODE).
result Valid causal effect estimation under certain conditions.

Frugal Flows learn complex data and infer marginal causal effects.

problem Challenges in estimating marginal causal effects from complex data.
method Frugal Flows use normalizing flows to flexibly learn data and infer causal quantities.
result Frugal Flows can generate synthetic data that closely matches real-world data and exactly parameterize causal quantities.

New method HNCI for evaluating treatment effects in network interference.

problem Evaluating the effectiveness of treatments or policies under network interference.
method High-dimensional network causal inference (HNCI) using linear regression with latent homogeneity.
result Valid confidence intervals and sets for average direct treatment effect and neighborhood size.

Estimates causal effects from patient trajectories using DeepACE model.

problem Estimating causal effects from observational data in medical practice.
method DeepACE model using iterative G-computation formula and sequential targeting procedure.
result DeepACE achieves state-of-the-art performance in estimating time-varying ACEs.

This work presents entropic constraints from DAGs with hidden variables.

problem Characterizing causal relations in systems with hidden variables.
method Entropic inequality constraints derived from ee-separation relations.
result These constraints can learn about true causal models from observed data.

Defines a new metric to measure importance of predictors in complex machine learning models.

problem Measuring importance of predictors in black box machine learning models.
method Introduces a new metric, GVIM, based on true conditional expectation functions and causal interpretation.
result The GVIM can be represented as a function of Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE), providing a causal interpretation.

Study clarifies variance of stratification estimators for causal effects.

problem Estimating average causal effects with discrete covariates.
method Combines insights from potential outcomes, causal diagrams, and structural models.
result Derives expressions for the variance of stratification estimators.

Estimating average causal effect (ACE) is useful whenever we want to know the effect of an intervention on a given outcome. In the absence of a randomized experiment, many methods such as stratification and inverse propensity weighting have been proposed to estimate ACE. However, it is hard to know which method is opti…

2019-07-10abs ↗pdf ↗

CausalPFN automates causal effect estimation from observational data.

problem Manual selection of causal effect estimators is time-consuming and requires domain expertise.
method CausalPFN is a transformer that learns to infer causal effects from raw observations without task-specific adjustments.
result CausalPFN achieves superior performance on various benchmarks and real-world tasks.

Paper introduces EnCounteR for estimating causal effects using encouragement data.

problem Challenges in estimating causal effects due to incomplete randomization and limited encouragement data.
method Introduces a generalized IV estimator, EnCounteR, leveraging both observational and encouragement data.
result Demonstrates superior performance of EnCounteR over existing methods.

Develops c-GNF for personalized social science policy analysis.

problem Challenges in estimating causal effects and counterfactual inference in social sciences.
method causal-Graphical Normalizing Flow (c-GNF) method.
result c-GNF performs well in estimating causal effects and counterfactual inference.

Proposes K-Fold Causal BART for improved CATE estimation.

problem Improving estimation of Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE).
method K-Fold Causal Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (K-Fold Causal BART).
result K-Fold Causal BART is not state-of-the-art for ATE and CATE estimation in the IHDP dataset, but provides insights into model robustness and evaluation methods.

Paper tackles confounded ANMs, estimating ACEs with minimal interventions.

problem Estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Interventional distributions and randomized algorithm to reduce the number of required interventions.
result Poly-logarithmic number of interventions sufficient to infer causal effects in confounded ANMs.

MR estimator simplifies causal inference by combining models without hyperparameter tuning.

problem Difficulty in choosing optimal hyperparameters for neural network models in causal inference.
method Multiply Robust (MR) estimator that combines multiple first-step models.
result MR estimator is nrn^r consistent and asymptotically normal under certain conditions.

New method estimates treatment effects in network data, accounting for spillover effects.

problem Treatment effect estimation in networks with spillover effects.
method Augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) with cross-fitting and machine learning.
result Semiparametric treatment effect estimator converges at parametric rate and follows Gaussian distribution.

Meta-learning model predicts intervention effects from uncertain causal graphs.

problem Estimating intervention effects when causal structures are uncertain.
method Model-Averaged Causal Estimation Transformer Neural Process (MACE-TNP) using meta-learning.
result MACE-TNP outperforms Bayesian baselines in predicting intervention distributions.

CCN estimates full potential outcome distributions without restrictive assumptions.

problem Estimating CATE is insufficient; full potential outcome distributions provide greater insights.
method Collaborating Causal Networks (CCN) learns full potential outcome distributions without restrictive assumptions.
result CCN learns distributions that asymptotically capture true potential outcome distributions.

Proposes a novel method to cluster individuals based on treatment effects.

problem Identifying subpopulations with different treatment responses.
method Clusters individuals using a learned kernel derived from causal forests, revealing latent subgroup structures.
result Captures meaningful treatment effect heterogeneity through kernelized clustering.

Theory and methods to mitigate omitted variable bias in causal machine learning.

problem Mitigating omitted variable bias in causal machine learning models.
method Developed a general theory and flexible statistical inference methods for bounding and testing the magnitude of omitted variable bias.
result Simple plausibility judgments can bound the magnitude of omitted variable bias in complex, nonlinear models.

New method reveals true causal functions in nonlinear time series, not just scores.

problem Causal discovery in nonlinear time series often uses scalar edge scores, which hide true function-valued causal influence.
method Formalized function-valued causal influence for additive, contribution-decomposable architectures. Introduced a practical framework based on ICE for estimating causal response functions directly from trained models.
result Edges with indistinguishable scalar scores can exhibit qualitatively different functional behaviors.

BayesIMP combines multiple causal graphs to estimate average treatment effects with uncertainty.

problem Uncertainty quantification in causal inference from multiple datasets.
method Bayesian Interventional Mean Processes (BayesIMP) integrating probabilistic integration and kernel mean embeddings.
result Improvements in average treatment effect estimation over state-of-the-art methods.

Develops methods to identify and estimate causal effects with instrumental variables.

problem Causal inference with confounded treatment assignment and unobserved variables.
method General nonparametric causal framework, debiased machine learning, semiparametric theory.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for average treatment effect.