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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

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48 results for Tree-Based Estimator

Tree-based model averaging improves CATE estimation from diverse sites.

problem Limited sample size and privacy concerns prevent accurate personalized treatment effect estimation.
method Tree-based model averaging approach to estimate CATEs from multiple heterogeneous sites.
result Improved accuracy in estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) across sites.

A new tree-based model improves uncertainty estimation in sequential optimization.

problem Improving uncertainty estimation in sequential model-based optimization.
method Proposed a new ensemble of randomized trees (BwO forest) with bagging and oversampling.
result BwO forest outperforms existing tree-based models in various optimization scenarios.

Improved Shapley Values for tree-based models, more accurate than existing methods.

problem Inaccurate Shapley Values in tree-based models leading to poor explanations.
method Introduced two new estimators exploiting tree structure, derived correct approach for categorical variables.
result More accurate Shapley Values for tree-based models, demonstrated through simulations.

A new approach uses partial likelihood to improve tree-based density estimation and inference.

problem Inference on tree-based models suffers from overfitting and reduced efficiency due to data-independent partitioning.
method Proposes a partial likelihood approach to data-dependent partitioning of tree-based models.
result Significant gains in estimation accuracy and computational efficiency from adopting partial likelihood.

Simulation study evaluates tree-based imputation methods for multi-level data.

problem Ignoring dependencies in hierarchical data can compromise imputation accuracy.
method Chained Random Forests and Extreme Gradient Boosting (mixgb) adapted for multi-level data.
result Adapted boosting methods outperform traditional MICE for Level-1 variables at higher missingness rates.

A new tree-based estimator, FastPD, efficiently estimates PD functions for machine learning models.

problem Efficiently estimating Partial Dependence functions for machine learning models.
method Proposes a new tree-based estimator, FastPD, to estimate PD functions.
result FastPD consistently estimates the desired population quantity and improves complexity from quadratic to linear.

Novel framework combines tree-based discretization and ILP matching for causal inference.

problem Challenges in identifying causal relationships from observational data.
method Combines tree-based discretization and ILP matching for causal inference.
result Yields computational efficiency and less biased ATT estimates.

Partition Tree estimates conditional densities for mixed continuous and categorical variables.

problem Estimating conditional densities for mixed data types.
method Tree-based framework modeling conditional distributions as piecewise-constant densities on adaptive partitions, minimizing conditional negative log-likelihood.
result Improved probabilistic prediction compared to CART-style trees and state-of-the-art methods.

Study reviews tree-based methods and introduces new ensemble strategies.

problem Improving the efficiency and performance of tree-based machine learning models.
method Review of tree-based methods, introduction of ISLE framework, ARM model combination strategy, and modified ISLEs.
result Performance evaluation of modified ISLEs on real data sets.

Causal Interaction Trees identify treatment subgroup effects in observational data.

problem Identifying subgroups with enhanced treatment effects in observational studies.
method Extending Classification and Regression Trees with subgroup-specific treatment effect estimators.
result The proposed algorithms enhance treatment effect heterogeneity in subgroups.

The main goal of this paper is to study the geometric structures associated with the representation of tensors in subspace based formats. To do this we use a property of the so-called minimal subspaces which allows us to describe the tensor representation by means of a rooted tree. By using the tree structure and the d…

2015-05-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Tree-based models biased when trained on imbalanced data, requiring new calibration methods.

problem Bias in tree-based models trained on imbalanced datasets.
method Analytical calibration of random forest models, demonstrating bias in decision trees.
result Calibrating tree-based models on imbalanced data negatively impacts predictions, especially for the minority class.

New method improves feature selection in tree-based models.

problem Previous feature selection methods in tree-based models lack sufficient regularization and sub-optimal performance.
method Developed a new gain penalization approach for tree-based models that allows for flexible feature-specific importance weights.
result The new method improves out-of-sample performance, especially with correlated features.

Enhanced tree-based classifiers use derivatives and geometry for better function classification.

problem Improving classification of high-dimensional time series data.
method Integrates Functional Data Analysis with tree-based ensemble techniques, leveraging derivative and geometric features.
result Significant improvements over traditional approaches in function classification.

Transformer learns shipping costs more accurately than traditional methods.

problem Inaccurate shipping cost estimates lead to poor financial decisions.
method Proposes Rate Card Transformer (RCT) using self-attention to encode shipping information.
result Cost predictions made by RCT have 28.82% less error compared to GBDT models.

Random Planted Forest interprets tree-based models by keeping some splits, leading to more interpretable predictions.

problem Estimating the unknown regression function from lower-order interaction terms.
method Modifying the random forest algorithm by keeping certain leaves instead of deleting them, resulting in non-binary trees called planted trees.
result The random planted forest achieves asymptotically optimal convergence rates up to a logarithmic factor when the interaction bound is low.

Study optimizes tree-based models for better alignment of predicted scores and actual probabilities.

problem Traditional calibration metrics fail to align predicted scores with actual probabilities when score distributions deviate from the underlying data.
method Optimizes tree-based models (Random Forest, XGBoost) using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to minimize the difference between predicted and true probability distributions.
result Optimized tree-based models yield superior alignment between predicted scores and actual probabilities without significant performance loss.

The paper introduces a method to control false splits in tree-based data aggregation.

problem Identifying the correct subgroups to treat as a single entity in tree-based data.
method Introduces the 'false split rate' and proposes a multiple hypothesis testing algorithm for tree-based aggregation.
result The proposed algorithm controls the false split rate, demonstrating its effectiveness on stock volatility and taxi fare data.

Tree-based models outperform deep learning on tabular data, especially for medium-sized datasets.

problem Understanding why tree-based models outperform deep learning on tabular data.
method Extensive benchmarks of tree-based and deep learning models on 45 datasets, accounting for hyperparameters.
result Tree-based models remain state-of-the-art on medium-sized tabular data, even without hyperparameter optimization.

Develops fair feature importance scores for tree-based models to interpret fairness.

problem Ensuring fairness in machine learning models, especially tree-based ones.
method Inspired by decision trees, proposes a novel fair feature importance score based on mean decrease in group bias.
result Valid interpretations of fairness for tree-based ensembles and surrogates of other ML systems.

FREEtree improves tree-based methods for correlated longitudinal data.

problem Poor performance of Random Forests in high dimensional longitudinal data with correlated features.
method FREEtree uses a piecewise random effects model and clustering with WGCNA to select features and maintain interpretability.
result FREEtree outperforms other tree-based methods in prediction and feature selection accuracy.

Proposes a generalized causal tree for handling multiple treatments in uplift modeling.

problem Handling multiple treatments in uplift modeling.
method Generalizes causal tree algorithm to handle multiple discrete and continuous-valued treatments.
result Demonstrates improved performance over existing methods in experiments and real data examples.

Develops algorithm to find subgroups with different treatment effects in HIV patients.

problem Estimating treatment effects in EHR data with challenges like time-varying confounding.
method SDLD algorithm combining generalized interaction tree and longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation.
result Identifies subgroups of HIV patients at higher risk of weight gain with dolutegravir-containing ARTs.

A new tree-based model for varying coefficients using CGBM.

problem Modeling varying coefficients with high dimensionality and complex interactions.
method Tree-based varying coefficient model with CGBM for varying coefficients, dimension-wise early stopping, and feature importance scores.
result The model produces comparable out-of-sample loss to neural networks, demonstrating effectiveness.

This work analyzes tree-based methods from a ranking perspective, providing insights and new statistics.

problem Understanding the effectiveness of tree-based methods in finite-sample settings, especially symbolic feature selection.
method Local ranking perspective, finite-sample analysis, oracle bounds, posterior contraction results, concordant divergence statistics.
result New insights and statistics for evaluating symbolic feature mappings.

nTreeClus clusters categorical sequences using tree-based learners and k-mers.

problem Challenges in clustering categorical and sequential data.
method nTreeClus uses Tree-based Learners, k-mers, and autoregressive models for categorical time series.
result nTreeClus outperformed baseline methods in various validation metrics.

We propose a modification that corrects for split-improvement variable importance measures in Random Forests and other tree-based methods. These methods have been shown to be biased towards increasing the importance of features with more potential splits. We show that by appropriately incorporating split-improvement as…

2019-03-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Although adversarial examples and model robustness have been extensively studied in the context of linear models and neural networks, research on this issue in tree-based models and how to make tree-based models robust against adversarial examples is still limited. In this paper, we show that tree based models are also…

2019-02-27abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper predicts travel times using tree-based ensembles.

problem Predicting travel times between urban points over short and long horizons.
method Tree-based ensemble methods trained on taxi trip records with additional features from weather and routing data.
result Adding routing data improves model performance and short-term predictions require less data.

New methods compare local and global feature importance scores for bioinformatics models.

problem Improving feature importance estimation in tree-based models.
method Comparison of SHAP values and Conditional Feature Contributions (CFCs) for 164 bioinformatics problems.
result SHAP values and CFCs yield similar rankings and interpretations for random forests.

Improved Shapley Value method for better model interpretation.

problem Misunderstanding and incorrect interpretation of Shapley Values in machine learning models.
method Identification of null and active coalitions, coalitional Shapley Value computation.
result Correct computation and inference of important variables using Shapley Values.

This paper is concerned with the approximation of high-dimensional functions in a statistical learning setting, by empirical risk minimization over model classes of functions in tree-based tensor format. These are particular classes of rank-structured functions that can be seen as deep neural networks with a sparse arc…

2018-11-11abs ↗pdf ↗