A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes a framework to quantify uncertainty in multi-step decision-making by LLMs.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multi-step decision-making scenarios of LLMs.
method A principled, information-theoretic framework decomposing uncertainty into internal and extrinsic components, and proposing UProp for efficient extrinsic uncertainty estimation.
result UProp significantly outperforms existing single-turn UQ baselines in multi-step decision-making benchmarks.
Recent results in Reinforcement Learning (RL) have shown that agents with limited training environments are susceptible to a large amount of overfitting across many domains. A key challenge for RL generalization is to quantitatively explain the effects of changing parameters on testing performance. Such parameters incl…
The paper learns particle swarming models from data using Gaussian processes.
problem Understanding the link between individual interaction rules and swarming behavior.
method Proposes a learning approach using Gaussian processes to model latent radial interaction functions and scalar parameters in non-collective friction forces.
result Establishes that a coercivity condition is sufficient for recoverability and provides a finite-sample analysis showing optimal convergence rates.
Advances in mobile computing technologies have made it possible to monitor and apply data-driven interventions across complex systems in real time. Markov decision processes (MDPs) are the primary model for sequential decision problems with a large or indefinite time horizon. Choosing a representation of the underlying…
Develops methods for finding counterfactual explanations in sequential decision making.
problem Finding counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making processes.
method Formal characterization of sequential actions and states using Markov decision processes and Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Introduces a polynomial time algorithm based on dynamic programming.
result Algorithm finds optimal counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making.
Research in psychology and neuroscience has successfully modeled decision making as a process of noisy evidence accumulation to a decision bound. While there are several variants and implementations of this idea, the majority of these models make use of a noisy accumulation between two absorbing boundaries. A common as…
We address the problem of inverse reinforcement learning in Markov decision processes where the agent is risk-sensitive. In particular, we model risk-sensitivity in a reinforcement learning framework by making use of models of human decision-making having their origins in behavioral psychology, behavioral economics, an…
Risk-controlled post-processing optimizes decision policies under risk constraints.
problem Optimizing decision policies with risk constraints for better outcomes.
method Developed a post-processing algorithm that selects a threshold based on fitted fallback policy and score, leveraging tools from algorithmic stability and stochastic processes.
result The post-processed policy achieves precise expected risk control under exchangeability and meets or nearly meets risk budgets while preserving more agreement with the baseline.
A popular methodology for building binary decision-making classifiers in the presence of imperfect information is to first construct a non-binary "scoring" classifier that is calibrated over all protected groups, and then to post-process this score to obtain a binary decision. We study the feasibility of achieving vari…
In Random Forests, proximity distances are a metric representation of data into decision space. By observing how changes in input map to the movement of instances in this space we are able to determine the independent contribution of each feature to the decision-making process. For binary feature vectors, this process …
In this paper, we use reinforcement learning to find effective decoding strategies for binary linear codes. We start by reviewing several iterative decoding algorithms that involve a decision-making process at each step, including bit-flipping (BF) decoding, residual belief propagation, and anchor decoding. We then ill…
This work facilitates ensuring fairness of machine learning in the real world by decoupling fairness considerations in compound decisions. In particular, this work studies how fairness propagates through a compound decision-making processes, which we call a pipeline. Prior work in algorithmic fairness only focuses on f…