A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes new attribution methods for trees with regularization.
We consider a financial contract that delivers a single cash flow given by the terminal value of a cumulative gains process. The problem of modelling and pricing such an asset and associated derivatives is important, for example, in the determination of optimal insurance claims reserve policies, and in the pricing of r…
Imagine a patient in critical condition. What and when should be measured to forecast detrimental events, especially under the budget constraints? We answer this question by deep reinforcement learning (RL) that jointly minimizes the measurement cost and maximizes predictive gain, by scheduling strategically-timed meas…
ActiveCQ improves causal quantity estimation with active learning and Gaussian Processes.
Measures three types of noise in LLM evaluations.
We introduce a strategic behavior in reinsurance bilateral transactions, where agents choose the risk preferences they will appear to have in the transaction. Within a wide class of risk measures, we identify agents' strategic choices to a range of risk aversion coefficients. It is shown that at the strictly beneficial…
Most of machine learning deals with vector parameters. Ideally we would like to take higher order information into account and make use of matrix or even tensor parameters. However the resulting algorithms are usually inefficient. Here we address on-line learning with matrix parameters. It is often easy to obtain onlin…
Two new deterministic offspring selection methods reduce statistical distance in SMC and pMCMC.
Variational methods for revealing visual concepts learned by convolutional neural networks have gained significant attention during the last years. Being based on noisy gradients obtained via back-propagation such methods require the application of regularization strategies. We present a mathematical framework unifying…
Paper constructs new minimal submanifolds in spheres by spinning given ones.
Study decomposes uncertainty in HK-distribution parameter estimation for QUS.
Study examines how body segments respond to random vibrations.
New method controls false discoveries in real-time data streams.
Data augmentation is rapidly gaining attention in machine learning. Synthetic data can be generated by simple transformations or through the data distribution. In the latter case, the main challenge is to estimate the label associated to new synthetic patterns. This paper studies the effect of generating synthetic data…
Improves likelihood-free inference by using a new sampling approach to avoid biased data collection.
Bayesian approach detects changepoints with cost-sensitive data fidelity.
We propose a new model of minority game with so-called smart agents such that the standard deviation and the total loss in this model reach the theoretical minimum values in the limit of long time. The smart agents use trail and error method to make a choice but bring global optimization to the system, which suggests t…
Measuring information value in markets using covariance of price changes and order flow.
While neural networks have achieved vastly enhanced performance over traditional iterative methods in many cases, they are generally empirically designed and the underlying structures are difficult to interpret. The algorithm unrolling approach has helped connect iterative algorithms to neural network architectures. Ho…
Periodic surfaces have a limited number of bending modes, equal to their membrane modes.
Introduces relative information gain for improving Gaussian process regression rates.
Paper studies fundamental limits of communication in distributed learning.
Deep generative modeling using flows has gained popularity owing to the tractable exact log-likelihood estimation with efficient training and synthesis process. However, flow models suffer from the challenge of having high dimensional latent space, the same in dimension as the input space. An effective solution to the …
Decision trees algorithms use a gain function to select the best split during the tree's induction. This function is crucial to obtain trees with high predictive accuracy. Some gain functions can suffer from a bias when it compares splits of different arities. Quinlan proposed a gain ratio in C4.5's information gain fu…
Text generation is a crucial task in NLP. Recently, several adversarial generative models have been proposed to improve the exposure bias problem in text generation. Though these models gain great success, they still suffer from the problems of reward sparsity and mode collapse. In order to address these two problems, …
A trading system uses LLMs to adapt to volatile crypto markets.
We present a generalization of the Simultaneous Long-Short (SLS) trading strategy described in recent control literature wherein we allow for different parameters across the short and long sides of the controller; we refer to this new strategy as Generalized SLS (GSLS). Furthermore, we investigate the conditions under …
We propose HAMSI (Hessian Approximated Multiple Subsets Iteration), which is a provably convergent, second order incremental algorithm for solving large-scale partially separable optimization problems. The algorithm is based on a local quadratic approximation, and hence, allows incorporating curvature information to sp…
For decomposable score-based structure learning of Bayesian networks, existing approaches first compute a collection of candidate parent sets for each variable and then optimize over this collection by choosing one parent set for each variable without creating directed cycles while maximizing the total score. We target…
A fundamental problem in studying and modeling economic and financial systems is represented by privacy issues, which put severe limitations on the amount of accessible information. Here we introduce a novel, highly nontrivial method to reconstruct the structural properties of complex weighted networks of this kind usi…
The gain-loss ratio is known to enjoy very good properties from a normative point of view. As a confirmation, we show that the best market gain-loss ratio in the presence of a random endowment is an acceptability index and we provide its dual representation for general probability spaces. However, the gain-loss ratio w…
New EPS insurance offers partial protection against superannuation losses.
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have been gaining increasing popularity in the investment community as is evidenced by the high growth both in the number of ETFs and their net assets since 2000. As ETFs are in nature similar to index mutual funds, in this paper we examined if this growing demand for ETFs can be explained …
Compact neural networks improve reinforcement learning performance with less data.
Eluder dimension and information gain are equivalent for reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
PC-GAIN improves GAIN's imputation by incorporating category information.
Investment horizon approach has been used to analyze indexes of Polish stock market.Optimal time horizon for each return value is evaluated by fitting appropriate function form of the distribution. Strong asymmetry of gain-loss curves is observed for WIG index, whereas gain and loss curves look similar for WIG20 and fo…
Adversaries with multiple antennas can fool deep learning modulators more effectively.
We study the problem of online path learning with non-additive gains, which is a central problem appearing in several applications, including ensemble structured prediction. We present new online algorithms for path learning with non-additive count-based gains for the three settings of full information, semi-bandit and…
Deep FPF approximates gain function for high-dimensional particle filtering.
Previous research has shown that for stock indices, the most likely time until a return of a particular size has been observed is longer for gains than for losses. We establish that this so-called gain/loss asymmetry is present also for individual stocks and show that the phenomenon is closely linked to the well-known …
Extends Demographic Parity for fairer wage predictions with expert knowledge.
New measures for causal entropy and information gain studied.
A 3-stage method enhances hyperspectral image classification accuracy.
LACD uses unlabeled data to improve conditional diffusion models.
Study on sample complexity of policy gradient for stabilizing linear systems under multiplicative noise.
Study adds investment gains and losses to recursive utility model, proving existence and uniqueness of utility process.
Classifies totally geodesic submanifolds in Hopf-Berger spheres.