CBNNs model survival with time-varying interactions, outperforming other methods.
problem Complex covariate effects and time-varying interactions in survival analysis.
method Combines case-base sampling with neural networks to model time-varying effects and complex baseline hazards.
result CBNNs outperform regression and neural network-based survival methods in simulations and real data applications.
New model predicts time-varying interactions in complex systems.
problem Challenges in modeling time-varying interactions in complex systems.
method Score-Driven Kinetic Ising Model (KIM) generalization.
result Model accurately predicts dynamics and separates different components.
TCFimt forecasts causal effects of multiple interventions from individual data.
problem Estimating causal effects of temporal multi-interventions from individual data.
method TCFimt uses adversarial tasks in seq2seq framework to alleviate bias and contrastive learning to decouple effects.
result TCFimt outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting future outcomes and choosing optimal treatments.
In this work the system of agents is applied to establish a model of the nonlinear distributed signal processing. The evolution of the system of the agents - by the prediction time scale diversified trend followers, has been studied for the stochastic time-varying environments represented by the real currency-exchange …
Dynamic Vine Copulas detect and quantify time-varying higher-order interactions in multivariate systems.
problem Time-varying dependence in multivariate systems, including tail behavior, asymmetry, and conditional structure.
method Dynamic Vine Copulas (DVC) framework for estimating and diagnosing non-Gaussian dependence, using fixed-root-order C-vines and smooth parameter trajectories.
result DVC detects and quantifies time-varying higher-order interactions, distinguishing between pairwise and conditional dependence.
KAPLAN-HR models survival data without manual interactions, outperforming existing methods.
problem Survival analysis challenges with complex covariates and time-varying effects.
method Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) for nonparametric hazard estimation.
result KAPLAN-HR matches or exceeds existing methods in clinical survival data.
In this paper, we study time-varying graphical models based on data measured over a temporal grid. Such models are motivated by the needs to describe and understand evolving interacting relationships among a set of random variables in many real applications, for instance the study of how stocks interact with each other…
A new method learns dynamic graph representations from time-varying data.
problem Learning dynamic graph representations from time-varying data.
method Higher-order skip-gram with negative sampling (HOSGNS) for tensor factorization.
result HOSGNS outperforms state-of-the-art methods in downstream tasks.
Flexible nonlinear Hawkes processes for time-varying systems.
problem Limited expressive ability of classic Hawkes processes.
method Flexible state-switching Hawkes processes with latent variable augmentation for Bayesian inference.
result Superior performance compared to state-of-the-art competitors.
New method learns dynamic brain communication patterns across regions.
problem Current methods struggle with time-varying brain communications and scalability.
method Adaptive Delay Model (ADM) using Markovian Gaussian Processes.
result Captures dynamic neural communication patterns over time.
CREIMBO models diverse brain activity by identifying hidden neural sub-circuits and their non-stationary interactions.
problem Lack of alignment in neural recordings limits analysis of brain-wide dynamics.
method CREIMBO learns a unified model of neural dynamics by assuming multiple hidden global sub-circuits representing ensemble interactions.
result CREIMBO discovers session-specific neural ensembles and their non-stationary interactions, revealing cross-subject neural mechanisms.
The latent block model (LBM) is a flexible probabilistic tool to describe interactions between node sets in bipartite networks, but it does not account for interactions of time varying intensity between nodes in unknown classes. In this paper we propose a non stationary temporal extension of the LBM that clusters simul…
The stochastic block model (SBM) is a flexible probabilistic tool that can be used to model interactions between clusters of nodes in a network. However, it does not account for interactions of time varying intensity between clusters. The extension of the SBM developed in this paper addresses this shortcoming through a…
Credit risk analysis improved with a joint model for spatial and temporal effects.
problem Predicting borrower's time-to-event with spatial and temporal covariates.
method Spatio-Temporal Joint Model (STJM) using Bayesian hierarchical approach and INLA.
result Spatial effects improve joint model performance, but spatio-temporal interactions have less impact.
A deep learning framework for survival analysis combining piecewise exponential models.
problem Survival analysis with competing risks, multi-state modeling, and time-varying effects.
method Piecewise exponential models embedded in a neural network.
result Predicted Alzheimer's disease progression using tabular and 3D point cloud data.
A new method for steering large agent populations efficiently.
problem Controlling the configuration of a swarm of identical, interacting cooperative agents.
method Mean-Field Schrodinger Bridges with Gaussian Mixture Models.
result A highly efficient parameterization to approximate optimal solutions of the MFSB problem in closed form.
Study minimax rates for online learning with time-varying dynamics.
problem Online learning with time-varying state and cost dynamics.
method Non-constructive upper and lower bounds, complexity and stability terms.
result Characterization of minimax rates and necessary conditions for learnability.
We build a simple diagnostic criterion for approximate factor structure in large cross-sectional equity datasets. Given a model for asset returns with observable factors, the criterion checks whether the error terms are weakly cross-sectionally correlated or share at least one unobservable common factor. It only requir…
KTVGL models tensor time series data for interpretable dynamic network estimation.
problem Estimating time-varying dependencies in multi-mode tensor time series data.
method Kronecker Time-Varying Graphical Lasso (KTVGL) for mode-specific dynamic network estimation.
result KTVGL produces interpretable modeling results and higher edge estimation accuracy than existing methods.
New framework learns interaction rules from animal trajectories.
problem Challenges in extracting interaction rules from animal movement data.
method Augmented behavioral models with neural networks and theory-guided regularization.
result Improved performance over baselines and novel biological insights.
Proposes L-VAE for longitudinal data analysis.
problem Analyse high-dimensional longitudinal data with missing values.
method Uses a multi-output additive Gaussian process (GP) prior to extend VAE's capability.
result Achieves highly accurate predictive performance.
Extends tracking guarantees for time-varying variational inequalities.
problem Tracking solutions of time-varying variational inequalities.
method Extends existing results to sublinear solution paths and periodic problems.
result Discrete dynamical systems of periodic time-varying VI can exhibit chaotic behavior or converge to the solution.
New method tracks time-varying parameters in data.
problem Tracking unknown time-varying parameters in data.
method Stochastic gradient descent-based recursive scheme with log-likelihood as gain function.
result Convergence in mean-square error in a suitable neighborhood of the unknown parameter.
We propose SPARFA-Trace, a new machine learning-based framework for time-varying learning and content analytics for education applications. We develop a novel message passing-based, blind, approximate Kalman filter for sparse factor analysis (SPARFA), that jointly (i) traces learner concept knowledge over time, (ii) an…
In this paper, we focus on the stochastic block model (SBM),a probabilistic tool describing interactions between nodes of a network using latent clusters. The SBM assumes that the networkhas a stationary structure, in which connections of time varying intensity are not taken into account. In other words, interactions b…
This research introduces dynamic portfolio cuts using a spectral approach for graph-theoretic diversification.
problem Traditional methods for estimating asset-return covariance assume statistical time-invariance, failing to capture the nonstationary nature of asset price movements.
method Introduces graph spectral estimators that account for nonstationarity, partitioning the market graph into time-evolving clusters for dynamic portfolio cuts.
result Demonstrates the advantages of the proposed framework over traditional methods through numerical case studies using real-world price data.
Develops a method to predict stock returns with time-varying risk premia.
problem Predicting stock returns with time-varying risk premia while maintaining no-arbitrage restrictions.
method Penalized two-pass regression with time-varying factor loadings, incorporating penalization in the first pass and grouping in the second pass.
result The proposed method reduces prediction errors compared to other approaches.
Time-varying neural network improves stock return prediction.
problem Predicting stock returns in a time-varying market.
method Online early stopping algorithm for neural network training.
result The proposed algorithm outperforms current methods in predicting monthly U.S. stock returns.
We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two decades in the mean and volatility dynamics, including the underlying volatility pe…
New tool for summarizing time-varying data shapes.
problem Understanding dynamic data shapes.
method Introducing crocker stacks for time-varying metric spaces.
result Demonstrated utility in parameter identification task.
Estimates time-varying network connections using multi-stage smoothing.
problem Estimating edge probabilities of time-varying networks.
method Multi-stage smoothing: temporal local smoothing followed by node-domain smoothing.
result Captures both smooth temporal evolution and structural patterns in connectivity.
We develop original models to study interacting agents in financial markets and in social networks. Within these models randomness is vital as a form of shock or news that decays with time. Agents learn from their observations and learning ability to interpret news or private information in time-varying networks. Under…
Paper tackles hyper-gradient estimation in decentralized FL over time-varying networks.
problem Excessive communication costs and inability to use robust networks.
method Introduces an optimality condition and uses Push-Sum for averaging model parameters and gradients over time-varying directed networks.
result Derives a hyper-gradient estimator that operates over time-varying directed networks and converges to the true hyper-gradient.
The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) provides a tool to characterize time series in terms of its implicit components oscillating at different time-scales. We apply this decomposition to intraday time series of the following three financial indices: the S\&P 500 (USA), the IPC (Mexico) and the VIX (volatility index US…
Estimates time-varying parameters from two OLS estimates.
problem Time-varying linear regression with hidden dynamics.
method Combines two OLS estimates for stable linear dynamics.
result Finite sample guarantee on estimation error.
New methods estimate survival functions with time-varying covariates.
problem Estimating survival functions with time-varying covariates.
method Generalized conditional inference and relative risk forests, adapted transformation forest.
result Proposed methods outperform traditional models in estimating survival functions.
The paper develops methods for time-varying constrained online convex optimization.
problem Time-varying loss and constraint functions in online convex optimization.
method Model-based augmented Lagrangian methods (MALM) for time-varying and delayed feedback.
result Sublinear regret and constraint violation for both time-varying and delayed feedback scenarios.
TVBO optimizes time-varying functions with asymptotically vanishing regret.
problem Understanding the asymptotic performance of TVBO for time-varying black-box functions.
method Provided upper and lower bounds for cumulative regret of TVBO algorithms.
result TVBO algorithms can achieve asymptotically vanishing regret under certain conditions.
CoI framework models clinical feature interactions, revealing temporal dependencies and enhancing transparency.
problem Capturing latent, time-varying dependencies among clinical features in time-series data.
method Chain-of-Influence (CoI) framework constructs an explicit, time-unfolded graph of feature interactions.
result Achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance (AUROC of 0.960 on CKD progression and 0.950 on ICU mortality).
The paper analyzes equity market dynamics and optimal portfolios using time-varying optimization.
problem Analyzing the time-varying structure of equity markets, particularly market capitalization inequality and concentration.
method The study employs mathematical functionals of time-varying portfolios and a Sharpe optimization procedure.
result Optimal portfolios exhibit varying market capitalization exposure over time.
New model captures time-varying volatility with stochastic exponential tails.
problem Capturing time-varying volatility and stochastic skewness in financial markets.
method Normal Tempered Stable distribution with time-varying parameter.
result Model better explains market option prices with stochastic exponential tails.
New method learns time-varying home field advantage in football.
problem Discovering causal factors behind home field advantage in sports.
method DYNAMO: a novel causal discovery method for non-stationary processes.
result Time-varying home field advantages influenced by referee bias.
Estimates financial market impacts of COVID-19 using time-varying kernel density.
problem Estimating the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets over time.
method Time-varying kernel density estimation with Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic.
result Determines the chronology and regional disparities of financial market impacts.
New TVBO algorithm optimizes time-varying functions with varying sampling frequencies.
problem Optimizing time-varying, expensive, noisy functions with constant frequency assumption.
method Formulated practical recommendations and derived upper regret bound for varying sampling frequencies.
result BOLT algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art TVBO algorithms in experiments.
A new algorithm for learning shallow neural networks with infinite width.
problem Learning shallow over-parameterized neural networks.
method Sinkhorn proximal algorithm approximating mean field learning dynamics.
result The algorithm performs gradient descent of the free energy associated with the risk functional.
A pairs trading model with time-varying volatility using stochastic control.
problem Optimizing pairs trading strategies with fluctuating asset volatilities.
method Stochastic control techniques, Finite Difference method, Generalized Method of Moments.
result Optimal trading strategies maximizing expected power utility from terminal wealth.
Paper tackles dynamic graph topology identification in time-varying graphs.
problem Dynamic graph topology identification in time-varying graphs.
method Proposes an online algorithm for time-varying optimization, with intrinsic temporal regularization.
result Demonstrates performance on Gaussian graphical model problem.
This paper presents a supervised learning algorithm, namely, the Synaptic Efficacy Function with Meta-neuron based learning algorithm (SEF-M) for a spiking neural network with a time-varying weight model. For a given pattern, SEF-M uses the learning algorithm derived from meta-neuron based learning algorithm to determi…