A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Q()-Learning improves Q-Learning by separating action-value functions into different time scales.
TiAda adapts adaptive gradient methods for nonconvex minimax optimization.
Automates PDE model reduction with time-scale separation.
Atoms and molecules are important conceptual entities we invented to understand the physical world around us. The key to their usefulness lies in the organization of nuclear and electronic degrees of freedom into a single dynamical variable whose time evolution we can better imagine. The use of such effective variables…
Improved bounds for non-linear SA with fast convergence.
The most common stochastic volatility models such as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU), the Heston, the exponential OU (ExpOU) and Hull-White models define volatility as a Markovian process. In this work we check of the applicability of the Markovian approximation at separate times scales and will try to answer the question …
The paper analyzes Indian stock sectors using multifractal analysis for long and short-term investment.
Aims to describe neural network training dynamics using two-time-scale models.
This work explores test-time scaling strategies for LLMs, improving sample efficiency and expressiveness.
We provide the proof that the space of time series data is a Kolmogorov space with -separation axiom using the loop space of time series data. In our approach we define a cyclic coordinate of intrinsic time scale of time series data after empirical mode decomposition. A spinor field of time series data comes fro…
Study on price fluctuations and persistence in European electricity spot markets.
Two major financial market complexities are transaction costs and uncertain volatility, and we analyze their joint impact on the problem of portfolio optimization. When volatility is constant, the transaction costs optimal investment problem has a long history, especially in the use of asymptotic approximations when th…
The theory of slow invariant manifolds (SIMs) is the foundation of various model-order reduction techniques for dissipative dynamical systems with multiple time-scales, e.g. in chemical kinetic models. The construction of SIMs and many approximation methods exploit the restrictive requirement of an explicit time-scale …
Models for audio source separation usually operate on the magnitude spectrum, which ignores phase information and makes separation performance dependant on hyper-parameters for the spectral front-end. Therefore, we investigate end-to-end source separation in the time-domain, which allows modelling phase information and…
The paper studies learning dynamics in two-layer neural networks.
For short-term solar irradiance forecasting, the traditional point forecasting methods are rendered less useful due to the non-stationary characteristic of solar power. The amount of operating reserves required to maintain reliable operation of the electric grid rises due to the variability of solar energy. The higher …
Generative models accelerate molecular dynamics by four orders of magnitude.
We establish decoupled functional CLTs for two-time-scale stochastic approximation.
Share price returns on different time scales can be well modelled by a superstatistical dynamics. Here we provide an investigation which type of superstatistics is most suitable to properly describe share price dynamics on various time scales. It is shown that while chi-square superstatistics works well on a time scale…
Different investment strategies are adopted in short-term and long-term depending on the time scales, even though time scales are adhoc in nature. Empirical mode decomposition based Hurst exponent analysis and variance technique have been applied to identify the time scales for short-term and long-term investment from …
SGD transitions between maxima and minima with varying time scales.
A digital twin for multi-scale systems uses physics-based and machine learning models.
New analysis of stochastic approximation with non-expansive mappings.
The correlation matrix is the key element in optimal portfolio allocation and risk management. In particular, the eigenvectors of the correlation matrix corresponding to large eigenvalues can be used to identify the market mode, sectors and style factors. We investigate how these eigenvalues depend on the time scale of…
We investigate finite-time decoupled convergence in nonlinear two-time-scale stochastic approximation.
We define and discuss the notion of pseudospherical surfaces in asymptotic coordinates on time scales. Thus we extend well known notions of discrete pseudospherical surfaces and smooth pseudosperical surfaces on more exotic domains (e.g, the Cantor set). In particular, we present a new expression for the discrete Gauss…
The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) provides a tool to characterize time series in terms of its implicit components oscillating at different time-scales. We apply this decomposition to intraday time series of the following three financial indices: the S\&P 500 (USA), the IPC (Mexico) and the VIX (volatility index US…
In addressing the question of the time scales characteristic for the market formation, we analyze high frequency tick-by-tick data from the NYSE and from the German market. By using returns on various time scales ranging from seconds or minutes up to two days, we compare magnitude of the largest eigenvalue of the corre…
Artificial intelligence is revolutionizing our lives at an ever increasing pace. At the heart of this revolution is the recent advancements in deep neural networks (DNN), learning to perform sophisticated, high-level tasks. However, training DNNs requires massive amounts of data and is very computationally intensive. G…
The paper presents the comparative study of the nature of stock markets in short-term and long-term time scales with and without structural break in the stock data. Structural break point has been identified by applying Zivot and Andrews structural trend break model to break the original time series (TSO) into time ser…
Paper analyzes convergence rates of two time-scale AC and NAC algorithms.
This work shows how approximate reward models can significantly improve inference-time scaling.
The study examines how verifier imperfections impact test-time scaling techniques.
Volatility of intra-day stock market indices computed at various time horizons exhibits a scaling behaviour that differs from what would be expected from fractional Brownian motion (fBm). We investigate this anomalous scaling by using empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a method which separates time series into a set o…
Financial markets can be described on several time scales. We use data from the limit order book of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) to compare how the fluctuation dominated microstructure crosses over to a more systematic global behavior.
We define and discuss the notion of pseudospherical surfaces in asymptotic coordinates on time scales. Two special cases, namely dicrete pseudospherical surfaces and smooth pseudosperical surfaces are consistent with this description. In particular, we define the Gaussian curvature in the discrete case.
Study tests rough fractional volatility model across different time scales, revealing new volatility patterns.
This work analyzes actor-critic methods for faster convergence.
In many finite horizon episodic reinforcement learning (RL) settings, it is desirable to optimize for the undiscounted return - in settings like Atari, for instance, the goal is to collect the most points while staying alive in the long run. Yet, it may be difficult (or even intractable) mathematically to learn with th…
This paper improves traditional Markowitz optimization by considering variance at multiple time scales.
The abstract explores connections between reinforcement learning, scaling, and diffusion.
We introduce a probabilistic generative model for disentangling spatio-temporal disease trajectories from series of high-dimensional brain images. The model is based on spatio-temporal matrix factorization, where inference on the sources is constrained by anatomically plausible statistical priors. To model realistic tr…
Empirical analysis of financial market trends and reversions across various time scales.
For the purpose of elucidating the correlation among currencies, we analyze daily and high-resolution data of foreign exchange rates. There is strong correlation for pairs of currencies of geographically near countries. We show that there is a time delay of order less than a minute between two currency markets having a…
For many externally driven complex systems neither the noisy driving force, nor the internal dynamics are a priori known. Here we focus on systems for which the time dependent activity of a large number of components can be monitored, allowing us to separate each signal into a component attributed to the external drivi…
We present an empirical analysis of the microstructure of financial markets and, in particular, of the static and dynamic properties of liquidity. We find that on relatively large time scales (15 minutes) large price fluctuations are connected to the failure of the subtle mechanism of compensation between the flows of …
The statistics of return distributions on various time scales constitutes one of the most informative characteristics of the financial dynamics. Here we present a systematic study of such characteristics for the Polish stock market index WIG20 over the period 04.01.1999 - 31.10.2005 for the time lags ranging from one m…
The study examines how extra compute during testing affects the performance of large language models.