New analysis shows how temporal variability affects online learning performance.
problem Understanding the impact of temporal variability on online learning performance.
method Careful regret analysis and adaptive algorithm development.
result Proved a novel static regret bound that depends on temporal variability.
Study on how intraclass variability affects Temporal Ensembling accuracy.
problem Effect of intraclass variability on Temporal Ensembling accuracy.
method Investigated through experiments with varying seed sizes and types on different datasets.
result Significant drop in accuracy with high intraclass variability datasets, more seed images improve accuracy, and seed type impacts overall efficiency.
LEAP identifies latent causal variables from temporal data.
problem Recovering time-delayed latent causal variables from general temporal data.
method Proposes LEAP, a framework that extends VAEs with constraints for temporally causal latent processes.
result Successfully identifies temporally causal latent processes from observed variables under various dependency structures.
RFN models urban mobility demand by separating temporal and spatial variability.
problem Aligning supply and demand in MoD systems for efficient transportation.
method Recurrent flow networks with latent variables and normalizing flows.
result RFN models explicitly disentangle temporal and spatial variability in urban mobility.
iCITRIS learns causal variables from interactive systems with instantaneous effects.
problem Identifying causal variables from temporal sequences with instantaneous effects.
method iCITRIS method for causal representation learning that handles instantaneous effects in intervened temporal sequences.
result iCITRIS accurately identifies causal variables and their causal graph from three interactive system datasets.
Model improves mortgage credit risk prediction with spatio-temporal machine learning.
problem Improving accuracy of default probabilities and loan portfolio loss distributions in mortgage credit risk.
method Combines tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model.
result Predictive models outperform conventional methods due to non-linear and spatio-temporal effects.
IETNet identifies important channels for MVTS classification.
problem Multivariate time series classification with blackbox deep networks.
method End-to-end network combining temporal feature extraction, variable selection, and interaction.
result IETNet improves model accuracy and reduces overfitting by identifying and removing non-predictive variables.
This paper proposes a new method for an optimized mapping of temporal variables, describing a temporal stream data, into the recently proposed NeuCube spiking neural network architecture. This optimized mapping extends the use of the NeuCube, which was initially designed for spatiotemporal brain data, to work on arbitr…
CtrlNS learns latent factors and distribution shifts from sparse transitions without prior knowledge.
problem Lack of prior knowledge of domain variables limits causal temporal representation learning.
method Sparse transition assumption and identifiability results from theoretical perspective.
result Effective in identifying distribution shifts and latent factors without prior knowledge.
OracleAD detects multivariate time series anomalies without labels.
problem Rare and unlabeled multivariate time series anomalies.
method OracleAD encodes past sequences into causal embeddings, projects them into a latent space, and identifies anomalies based on deviations from a stable latent structure.
result OracleAD achieves state-of-the-art results and is interpretable.
In this paper, we propose multi-variable LSTM capable of accurate forecasting and variable importance interpretation for time series with exogenous variables. Current attention mechanism in recurrent neural networks mostly focuses on the temporal aspect of data and falls short of characterizing variable importance. To …
In this paper, we propose an interpretable LSTM recurrent neural network, i.e., multi-variable LSTM for time series with exogenous variables. Currently, widely used attention mechanism in recurrent neural networks mostly focuses on the temporal aspect of data and falls short of characterizing variable importance. To th…
The paper learns robot skills from demonstrations without supervision.
problem Discovering robotic options from unlabelled demonstrations.
method Temporal variational inference for latent variable learning.
result The framework can learn options across multiple datasets.
Multivariate time series prediction has applications in a wide variety of domains and is considered to be a very challenging task, especially when the variables have correlations and exhibit complex temporal patterns, such as seasonality and trend. Many existing methods suffer from strong statistical assumptions, numer…
New model tackles complex spatio-temporal causal inference with dynamic confounders and functional data.
problem Complex spatio-temporal dynamics and unmeasured confounders hinder causal inference.
method PFD-BDCM, a unified generative framework for spatio-temporal dependencies, functional data, and dynamic confounding.
result PFD-BDCM outperforms existing methods across observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries.
New framework improves multivariate time series forecasting by minimizing redundant information.
problem Improving multivariate time series forecasting with deep learning techniques.
method Cross-variable Decorrelation Aware feature Modeling (CDAM) and Temporal correlation Aware Modeling (TAM) to refine Channel-mixing and exploit temporal correlations.
result Significantly surpasses existing models in comprehensive tests.
Convolutional architectures have recently been shown to be competitive on many sequence modelling tasks when compared to the de-facto standard of recurrent neural networks (RNNs), while providing computational and modeling advantages due to inherent parallelism. However, currently there remains a performance gap to mor…
Estimates spatio-temporal data with satellite NO2 concentrations using Yule-Walker equations.
problem Estimating large spatio-temporal autoregressions with unknown spatial interactions.
method Sparse generalized Yule-Walker estimation, penalized regression, spatial and temporal dependence.
result Strong forecast improvements and evidence of spatial interactions in NO2 satellite data.
New method disentangles latent variables in nonstationary data.
problem Disentangling latent variables in nonstationary sequential data.
method NCTRL framework exploiting Markov assumption and temporal structure.
result Independent latent components can be recovered from nonlinear mixture without auxiliary variables.
Novel spatio-temporal LSTM model forecasts oceanic variables across sensors and scales.
problem Data sparsity and lack of connected spatial and temporal information in environmental datasets.
method SPATIAL LSTM architecture that learns across spatial and temporal scales.
result Framework accurately forecasts oceanic variables with comparable performance to state-of-the-art models.
A new method identifies critical transitions in high-dimensional data.
problem Challenges in identifying critical transitions in high-dimensional time-series data.
method Spatial-temporal Principal Component Analysis (stPCA)
result Identifies tipping points before critical transitions reliably.
Paper presents a spatio-temporal Bayesian model for early detection of COVID-19 hotspots.
problem Understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 hotspots to prevent outbreaks.
method Spatio-temporal Bayesian framework with a zero-mean Gaussian process and non-stationary kernel function enhanced by deep neural networks.
result Model demonstrates superior hotspot-detection performance compared to baseline methods.
Time series prediction has been studied in a variety of domains. However, it is still challenging to predict future series given historical observations and past exogenous data. Existing methods either fail to consider the interactions among different components of exogenous variables which may affect the prediction ac…
New framework IDOL identifies latent causal processes with instantaneous relations from time series data.
problem Identifying latent causal processes with instantaneous relations from time series data.
method Sparse influence constraint and variational inference architecture with sparsity regularization.
result Our method can identify latent causal processes with instantaneous relations.
SiBBlInGS discovers interpretable building blocks across states in multi-way data.
problem Identifying interpretable units (Building Blocks) in multi-state, multi-way data.
method Graph-based dictionary learning approach for sparse BBs and temporal traces.
result Captures per-trial variability and state-specific vs. state-invariant components.
New framework TDRL identifies latent causal variables from sequential data.
problem Identify latent causal variables from sequential data.
method Proposes TDRL framework to recover time-delayed latent causal variables and identify their relations from measured sequential data.
result Identifies latent causal variables reliably from sequential data.
ReGENN improves time series forecasting by considering inter and intra-temporal relationships.
problem Achieving reliable predictions in real-world time series applications.
method ReGENN combines graph evolution with deep recurrent learning to model dynamic dependencies among multiple variables.
result Sound improvement of up to 64.87% over competing algorithms in time-series forecasting.
Generative model for high-dimensional categorical data using Gaussian-Dirichlet fields.
problem Efficiently modeling and predicting high-dimensional categorical data.
method Combines Dirichlet and Gaussian processes for spatio-temporal modeling.
result Model accurately approximates categorical data in unobserved locations.
Temporal networks representing a stream of timestamped edges are seemingly ubiquitous in the real-world. However, the massive size and continuous nature of these networks make them fundamentally challenging to analyze and leverage for descriptive and predictive modeling tasks. In this work, we propose a general framewo…
TAGM models time-varying connections between variables.
problem Inferring temporal relationships between covariates.
method Time Adaptive Gaussian Model (TAGM) using Hidden Markov Models and Gaussian Graphical Models.
result TAGM outperforms state-of-the-art methods for temporal network inference.
Framework learns image dynamics between time steps using latent variables.
problem Challenges in capturing evolving image patterns and temporal information.
method Estimates intermediary image stages using a physical latent variable model.
result Demonstrates robustness and effectiveness in geoscientific imagery.
A framework uses deep learning for spatio-temporal data prediction.
problem Interpolation of continuous spatio-temporal fields on irregular points.
method Decomposes spatio-temporal processes into products of basis functions and spatial coefficients.
result Effectiveness in reconstructing coherent spatio-temporal fields.
The Temporal Group LASSO is an example of a multi-task, regularized regression approach for the prediction of response variables that vary over time. The aim of this work is to introduce the reader to the concepts behind the Temporal Group LASSO and its related methods, as well as to the type of potential applications …
This paper benchmarks speech LVMs against deterministic models and adapts a video model to speech.
problem Speech generation models are inferior to deterministic models.
method Developed a speech benchmark of LVMs and compared them against deterministic models.
result The Clockwork VAE outperforms previous LVMs and reduces the gap to deterministic models.
TSCoNet forecasts correlated geophysical fields with uncertainty estimates.
problem Accurate and reliable forecasts of correlated geophysical fields across many locations.
method Two-stage CNN-LSTM coupled with Gaussian copula.
result Calibrated prediction intervals without sacrificing point accuracy.
Analyzing mobility behavior of users is extremely useful to create or improve existing services. Several research works have been done in order to study mobility behavior of users that mainly use users' significant locations. However, these existing analysis are extremely intrusive because they require the knowledge of…
This paper presents, evaluates, and discusses a new software tool to automatically build Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) from ordinary differential equations (ODEs) entered by the user. The DBNs generated from ODE models can handle both data uncertainty and model uncertainty in a principled manner. The application, na…
Paper models spatio-temporal extremes using conditional variational autoencoders.
problem Modeling co-occurrence of extreme weather events under changing climate conditions.
method Conditional Variational Autoencoder (cXVAE) with CNN integration.
result Accurately emulates spatial fields and recovers extremal dependence with low computational cost.
MTHetGNN models complex relations in multivariate time series forecasting.
problem Complex relations among variables in multivariate time series forecasting.
method Designs a relation embedding module and a temporal embedding module, using graph neural networks and CNNs.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results in multivariate time series forecasting.
Estimates time-varying network connections using multi-stage smoothing.
problem Estimating edge probabilities of time-varying networks.
method Multi-stage smoothing: temporal local smoothing followed by node-domain smoothing.
result Captures both smooth temporal evolution and structural patterns in connectivity.
Spatio-temporal data and processes are prevalent across a wide variety of scientific disciplines. These processes are often characterized by nonlinear time dynamics that include interactions across multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability. The data sets associated with many of these processes are increasing …
Mathematical modeling with Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) has proven to be extremely successful in a variety of fields, including biology. However, these models are completely deterministic given a certain set of initial conditions. We convert mathematical ODE models of three benchmark biological systems to Dyn…
Nonlinear ICA is a fundamental problem for unsupervised representation learning, emphasizing the capacity to recover the underlying latent variables generating the data (i.e., identifiability). Recently, the very first identifiability proofs for nonlinear ICA have been proposed, leveraging the temporal structure of the…
Language models are at the heart of numerous works, notably in the text mining and information retrieval communities. These statistical models aim at extracting word distributions, from simple unigram models to recurrent approaches with latent variables that capture subtle dependencies in texts. However, those models a…
Spacetimeformer learns spatiotemporal relationships from data alone.
problem Forecasting multivariate time series with distinct spatial relationships.
method Transformers with dynamic graph connections learning interactions between space, time, and value.
result Competitive results on various time series prediction benchmarks.
One popular approach for nonstructural economic and financial forecasting is to include a large number of economic and financial variables, which has been shown to lead to significant improvements for forecasting, for example, by the dynamic factor models. A challenging issue is to determine which variables and (their)…
We propose a recurrent extension of the Ladder networks whose structure is motivated by the inference required in hierarchical latent variable models. We demonstrate that the recurrent Ladder is able to handle a wide variety of complex learning tasks that benefit from iterative inference and temporal modeling. The arch…
Variable order sequence modeling is an important problem in artificial and natural intelligence. While overcomplete Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), in theory, have the capacity to represent long-term temporal structure, they often fail to learn and converge to local minima. We show that by constraining HMMs with a simple …