Model uncertainty obtained by variational Bayesian inference with Monte Carlo dropout is prone to miscalibration. The uncertainty does not represent the model error well. In this paper, temperature scaling is extended to dropout variational inference to calibrate model uncertainty. Expected uncertainty calibration erro…
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48 results for “Temperature Variation”
FlowVAT improves variational inference for multi-modal distributions.
problem Mode-seeking behavior and collapse in variational inference for complex posteriors.
method Conditional tempering approach for normalizing flow variational inference.
result FlowVAT outperforms traditional and adaptive annealing methods in multi-modal distributions, finding more modes and achieving better ELBO values.
Variational Temperingstat.ML
Variational inference (VI) combined with data subsampling enables approximate posterior inference over large data sets, but suffers from poor local optima. We first formulate a deterministic annealing approach for the generic class of conditionally conjugate exponential family models. This approach uses a decreasing te…
AdaAnn optimizes annealing for efficient probability density approximation.
problem Efficiently approximating complex probability distributions with multiple modes.
method AdaAnn is an adaptive annealing scheduler that adjusts temperature increments based on KL divergence.
result AdaAnn improves computational efficiency in variational inference and parameter estimation.
The cold posterior effect is explored through PAC-Bayes bounds for small sample sizes.
problem The cold posterior effect in approximate Bayesian inference for small datasets.
method Investigation through PAC-Bayes generalization bounds, focusing on temperature parameter λ.
result The temperature parameter λ in PAC-Bayes bounds captures the cold posterior effect.
Researchers use Gaussian Process Regression to improve accuracy of a low-cost hot-wire anemometer.
problem Improving accuracy of low-cost hot-wire anemometers in varying temperatures.
method Probabilistic calibration using Gaussian Process Regression.
result The method provides good performance in estimating actual wind speeds, including uncertainty.
Quantum annealing improves VB inference, avoiding local minima.
problem Variational Bayes inference stuck in local minima.
method Quantum annealing approach to VB inference.
result Quantum annealing variational Bayes (QAVB) outperforms classical VB.
Analysis of different Mathematical Models for Different Case Studies Using Statistical Fittingmath.DG
Study evaluates different mathematical models for three case studies using statistical fitting.
problem Estimating outcomes in population dynamics, temperature variations, and market equilibrium.
method Applied various statistical equations (e.g., fractional exponential, sinusoidal) to three case studies.
result Optimal models differ by case study (fractional exponential for population dynamics, sinusoidal for temperature and market equilibrium).
The well known maximum-entropy principle due to Jaynes, which states that given mean parameters, the maximum entropy distribution matching them is in an exponential family, has been very popular in machine learning due to its "Occam's razor" interpretation. Unfortunately, calculating the potentials in the maximum-entro…
K-Means and RBF networks are shown to be equivalent under certain conditions.
problem Discrete clustering vs. continuous optimization in machine learning.
method Established variational and gradient-based equivalence between K-Means and RBF networks.
result Gradient-based updates of RBF centers recover K-Means centroid update rule.
Increments of Uncorrelated Time Series Can Be Predicted With a Universal 75% Probability of Successcond-mat.stat-mech
We present a simple and general result that the sign of the variations or increments of uncorrelated times series are predictable with a remarkably high success probability of 75% for symmetric sign distributions. The origin of this paradoxical result is explained in details. We also present some tests on synthetic, fi…
A novel model learns from limited data using physics constraints and GPVAE to generate realistic samples.
problem Limited data for effective generative AI training.
method Physics-informed Gaussian Process Variational Autoencoder (PIGPVAE) incorporating physical models and discrepancy terms.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance on indoor temperature data.
The Allen-Cahn system on manifolds yields multiple phase distributions.
problem Finding the number of solutions to the Allen-Cahn system on manifolds.
method Volume-fixing variations approach to classify isoperimetric clusters.
result The number of solutions is bounded by topological invariants for parallelizable manifolds.
Study evaluates and compares numerical differentiation methods on three case studies.
problem Evaluating and comparing numerical differentiation methods for efficiency.
method Forward, Backward, and Centered Finite-Difference methods applied at two levels of precision.
result Different methods perform differently across case studies, with varying levels of computational cost and accuracy.
Temperature scaling improves model uncertainty but not diversity in LLMs.
problem Improving the calibration and stochasticity of probabilistic models.
method Investigates theoretical properties of temperature scaling in classification and LLMs.
result Temperature scaling increases model uncertainty but not diversity in LLMs.
New method uses neural networks to efficiently approximate Bayesian inference for complex models.
problem Efficiently approximating Bayesian inference for complex models with varying temperatures.
method Fully amortized neural posterior estimator trained on a single forward pass.
result Achieves competitive posterior approximations across various temperatures and benchmarks.
Introduce a thermodynamically informed, temperature-transferable MLCG framework for proteins.
problem Temperature transferability of MLCG models for proteins.
method Explicit decomposition of CG potential into energetic and entropic components.
result Reproduces temperature-dependent quantities like heat capacity.
Study local sensitivity of HDD and CDD temperature derivatives prices.
problem Understanding how temperature derivatives prices change with small temperature changes.
method Analyzes sensitivity of HDD and CDD futures and options prices to temperature perturbations using a CAR process.
result Identifies the order of the CAR process and its impact on temperature derivatives prices.
We introduce a temperature into the exponential function and replace the softmax output layer of neural nets by a high temperature generalization. Similarly, the logarithm in the log loss we use for training is replaced by a low temperature logarithm. By tuning the two temperatures we create loss functions that are non…
Aggregates probability models using Wasserstein space and variational approach.
problem Model aggregation in the Wasserstein space of distributions.
method Data-driven calibration framework based on -convergence.
result Empirical minimizers converge to the minimizers of the actual problem.
A new method selects optimal temperature for Bayesian Deep Learning.
problem Finding the optimal temperature for improving predictive performance in Bayesian Deep Learning.
method Data-driven approach to estimate temperature as a model parameter.
result Our method performs comparably to grid search but at a fraction of the cost.
Climate volatility reduces economic growth, especially in poorer countries.
problem Impact of climate volatility on economic growth.
method Exploiting data on 133 countries over 59 years, controlling for temperature changes.
result A 1 degree C increase in temperature volatility leads to a 0.3% decline in GDP growth.
New adaptive temperature selection improves parallel tempering efficiency.
problem Enhancing mixing in multi-modal distributions using parallel tempering.
method Adaptive temperature selection using policy gradient approach.
result Lower integrated autocorrelation times achieved compared to traditional methods.
Logit-GFN accelerates GFlowNets training by scaling logits based on temperature.
problem Training temperature-conditional GFlowNets is numerically challenging.
method Logit-GFN uses a learned function of temperature to scale policy logits.
result Logit-GFN greatly accelerates GFlowNets training and improves generalization and mode discovery.
This paper measures temperature in agent systems using volatility.
problem How to measure temperature in agent systems.
method Examined an agent system with two decision options in a news environment, established the measurement equation, and outlined the concept of temperature measurement.
result Illustrated a strategy for influencing average opinion in competing subsystems.
Attention temperature improves robustness of ICL in high-dimensional settings.
problem ICL robustness failure under distribution shift in high dimensions.
method Analyzed a Transformer with approximate softmax attention, derived a closed-form error expression, and showed optimal temperature minimizes error.
result Optimal attention temperature minimizes ICL generalization error under distribution shift.
Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar orbiting weather satellites. We derive two novel algorithms for computation that …
Emerging Statistical Machine Learning Techniques for Extreme Temperature Forecasting in U.S. Citiesstat.AP
The paper analyzes extreme temperature forecasting using machine learning models.
problem Forecasting extreme temperatures in U.S. cities.
method Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Multilayer Perceptrons, Gaussian Processes.
result Multilayer Perceptrons were found to be the most effective approach for forecasting extreme temperatures.
Model predicts viscosity of multicomponent systems efficiently.
problem Expensive experimental viscosity measurements in various industries.
method Artificial neural networks trained on a database of chemical systems and temperatures.
result Model Viskositas provides more accurate predictions with lower errors, variability, and outliers.
Annealing in variational inference mitigates mode collapse: A theoretical study on Gaussian mixturesstat.ML
Mathematical analysis shows annealing prevents mode collapse in Gaussian mixtures.
problem Mode collapse in variational inference for multimodal distributions.
method Analyzed annealing strategies for Gaussian mixtures, derived formulas, and tested on neural networks.
result Appropriately chosen annealing schemes can robustly prevent mode collapse.
The paper analyzes the InfoNCE loss under different temperature schedules using Langevin dynamics.
problem Understanding the dynamics of InfoNCE loss under fixed versus annealed temperature schedules.
method Modeling embedding evolution under Langevin dynamics on a compact Riemannian manifold, with theoretical guarantees for convergence.
result Slow logarithmic inverse-temperature schedules ensure convergence to globally optimal representations, while faster schedules risk suboptimal minima.
The Gibbs algorithm's generalization error is bounded, improving with prior volume in low temperatures.
problem Bounding the generalization error of the Gibbs algorithm in low temperature regimes.
method Analyzes the Gibbs algorithm's performance, extending known high-temperature bounds to low-temperature scenarios.
result With high probability, the generalization error decreases with the total prior volume of similar hypotheses.
Optimizes contrastive learning with individualized temperatures for better performance on imbalanced datasets.
problem The common practice of using a global temperature parameter ignores the varying semantic similarity across different anchor data.
method Proposes a new robust contrastive loss inspired by distributionally robust optimization (DRO) and an efficient stochastic algorithm for automatic temperature individualization.
result Our method automatically learns a suitable temperature for each sample, improving performance on imbalanced datasets.
Unsupervised learning of phase transitions: from principal component analysis to variational autoencoderscond-mat.stat-mech
We employ unsupervised machine learning techniques to learn latent parameters which best describe states of the two-dimensional Ising model and the three-dimensional XY model. These methods range from principal component analysis to artificial neural network based variational autoencoders. The states are sampled using …
We introduce a method for non-uniform random number generation based on sampling a physical process in a controlled environment. We demonstrate one proof-of-concept implementation of the method that reduces the error of Monte Carlo integration of a univariate Gaussian by 1068 times while doubling the speed of the Monte…
New framework uses time series features for predicting streamflow in ungauged areas.
problem Predicting streamflow in areas without gauging stations.
method Developed regression-based streamflow regionalization using a wide range of time series features from large datasets.
result Certain time series features, like entropy and autocorrelation, are better predictors of streamflow than traditional catchment attributes.
New method uses RBM flows to find critical temperatures in Ising models.
problem Detecting critical temperatures in RBM flows without model topology information.
method Iterative sampling from RBM mapped on Ising model temperature space using a neural network thermometer.
result Flow of RBM trained on Ising spin configurations approaches critical temperature around .
The paper prices weather contracts using a complex temperature model.
problem Accurate pricing of weather contracts under temperature dynamics.
method Time-changed Levy model with mean-reverting dynamics, Fourier expansion, Esscher transform.
result An accurate approximation of weather contract prices.
Algorithm learns Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model parameters at low temperatures.
problem Learning parameters of random graphical models at low temperatures.
method Multiplicative-weight update algorithm for polynomial time learning.
result Algorithm learns SK model parameters at .
Develops a new stochastic volatility model for temperature derivatives.
problem Assessing risk related to temperature volatility.
method Conditional Least Squares and Fourier transform techniques.
result Better assessment of temperature volatility risk.
Study shows sample complexity for logistic regression with normal covariates.
problem Estimating parameters of logistic regression with normal design.
method Analyzes sample complexity in terms of dimension and inverse temperature.
result Shows two change-points in sample complexity curve based on inverse temperature.
Boltzmann Distribution and Temperature of Stock Marketsphysics.soc-ph
The minute fluctuations of of S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices display Boltzmann statistics over a wide range of positive as well as negative returns, thus allowing us to define a {\em market temperature} for either sign. With increasing time the sharp Boltzmann peak broadens into a Gaussian whose volatility measure…
In the spirit of behavioral finance, we study the process of opinion formation among investors using a variant of the 2D Voter Model with a tunable social temperature. Further, a feedback acting on the temperature is introduced, such that social temperature reacts to market imbalances and thus becomes time dependent. I…
A spin model relating physical to financial variables is presented. This work is the first to introduce the concept of negative absolute temperature into stock market dynamics by establishing a rigorous formal analogy between physical and financial variables. Based on this model, an algorithm evaluating negative temper…
Machine learning and deep learning infer surface/groundwater exchange from temperature data.
problem Inferring surface/groundwater exchange from temperature data with high temporal resolution.
method Application of machine learning and deep learning algorithms to infer surface/groundwater exchange flux from subsurface temperature observations.
result DL methods outperform ML methods in interpreting noisy temperature data, especially with a smoothing filter.
Researchers derive the relation between temperature and volatility in ideal agent systems.
problem Deriving the exact algebraic relation between temperature and volatility in ideal agent systems.
method Analogy with spin systems from statistical physics.
result Derive the exact algebraic relation between temperature and volatility for an ideal agent system.
New method estimates Nishimori temperature for node classification in weighted graphs.
problem Estimating Nishimori temperature for Bayesian inference.
method Spectral method using eigenvalues of Bethe Hessian matrix.
result Spectral method outperforms existing approaches in node classification.
Mean Field Variational Bayesian Inference and Statistical Mechanics of Gaussian Mixture Modelmath.DG
This paper analyzes MFVBI for GMM using statistical mechanics.
problem Approximate fast computation of Gaussian Mixture Model.
method Statistical mechanics and MFVBI applied to GMM.
result Rigorous analysis and mathematical foundation for MFVBI applied to GMM.