An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time V…
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48 results for “Taylor Rule”
Examines how central bank policies affect stock markets and asset prices.
problem Understanding the impact of monetary policy on stock markets and asset prices.
method Used Taylor rule equations to analyze data from 1990 to 2020 for US and UK, testing with various econometric methods.
result Monetary policy can explain asset price volatility and output gap better than just inflation rate.
The paper examines how macroeconomic control tools lost effectiveness, leading to a 'dark ages' period.
problem Loss of effectiveness of control tools in macroeconomic stabilization policy.
method Historical analysis of macroeconomic stabilization policy from 1948 to 1993.
result The overstatement of the Lucas critique and Kydland and Prescott's time-inconsistency led to a period of ineffective stabilization policy.
Kernelized Taylor diagram visualizes data populations with fewer assumptions.
problem Limitations of Taylor diagram in capturing non-linear relationships and sensitivity to outliers.
method Proposes a kernelized version of the Taylor diagram that uses maximum mean discrepancy and kernel mean embedding.
result Kernelized Taylor diagram visualizes data populations with minimal assumptions of data distributions.
Neural networks learn higher-order derivatives for physics problems.
problem Lack of higher-order derivatives in neural networks for theoretical physics.
method Graph-theoretical approach to assign diagrams to partial derivatives, iterative NN perturbation theory.
result NNs can learn higher-order derivatives, improving machine-learned approximations.
Biological neurons learn tensor decompositions of higher-order correlations using nonlinear Hebbian plasticity.
problem Learning higher-order correlations in biological neurons.
method Introduce and study generalized nonlinear Hebbian learning rules.
result Neurons can learn tensor eigenvectors of higher-order input correlation tensors.
Taylor expansions improve reinforcement learning policies.
problem Improving reinforcement learning policy optimization.
method Taylor expansion policy optimization.
result Taylor expansions enhance performance of distributed algorithms.
Taylorized training improves neural network training at finite width.
problem Understanding and improving neural network training at finite width.
method Training the k-th order Taylor expansion of the neural network at initialization.
result Taylorized training agrees with full neural network training better as k increases and can significantly close the performance gap.
Study finds Deep Taylor Decomposition is unreliable for explaining neural networks.
problem Reliability of Deep Taylor Decomposition for explaining neural networks.
method Investigated the theoretical foundations of Deep Taylor Decomposition (DTD) and found it under-constrained.
result DTD is unreliable because its theoretical foundations are under-constrained and roots do not align with input.
The first aperiodic monotiling, introduced by Taylor, was based on a trapezoidal prototile equipped with 14 distinct decorations. A presentation of the closely related Taylor-Socolar aperiodic monotiling is based on a hexagonal prototile equipped with 7 decorations. This paper gives decoration-free algebraic descriptio…
The paper is concerned with non-linear Gaussian filtering and smoothing in continuous-discrete state-space models, where the dynamic model is formulated as an Itô stochastic differential equation (SDE), and the measurements are obtained at discrete time instants. We propose novel Taylor moment expansion (TME) Gaussian …
Proposes a Taylor framework to unify and analyze attribution methods.
problem Lack of a unified guideline for feature contribution assignment in machine learning models.
method Introduces a Taylor attribution framework to model the attribution problem and reformulates fourteen mainstream methods.
result Empirically validates the Taylor reformulations and reveals a positive correlation between performance and principles followed.
New approximations for Asian basket spread options using stochastic Taylor expansions.
problem Pricing Asian basket spread options under the Black-Scholes model.
method Stochastic Taylor expansion applied to a log-normal proxy model.
result Highly accurate approximations for Asian and spread options, without numerical integration.
Paper develops a new algorithm to find shortest paths on surfaces.
problem Finding shortest paths on surfaces with defined metrics.
method Uses Taylor expansion of exponential map for numerical computation.
result Developed a new algorithm to find geodesics efficiently.
TaylorPODA: A Taylor Expansion-Based Method to Improve Post-Hoc Attributions for Opaque Modelsstat.ML
TaylorPODA uses Taylor expansions to improve feature attributions for opaque models.
problem Lack of systematic framework for quantifying feature contributions in opaque models.
method Taylor expansion framework with postulates (precision, federation, zero-discrepancy, adaptation).
result TaylorPODA achieves competitive results and provides principled explanations.
Developed Taylor series for muscle-finger system analysis.
problem Understanding the complex relationship between muscle activity and finger movement.
method Used Dendrite Net to develop Taylor series and construct relation spectrum.
result Found muscle synergy and coupling in hand movement.
Modern convolutional networks, incorporating rectifiers and max-pooling, are neither smooth nor convex; standard guarantees therefore do not apply. Nevertheless, methods from convex optimization such as gradient descent and Adam are widely used as building blocks for deep learning algorithms. This paper provides the fi…
The Adomian decomposition method is shown to be equivalent to the Taylor series approach.
problem Incorrectly perceived complexity of the Adomian decomposition method.
method Demonstrates the Adomian decomposition method as equivalent to the Taylor series approach.
result The Adomian decomposition method is simpler and more straightforward.
We use tools from geometric statistics to analyze the usual estimation procedure of a template shape. This applies to shapes from landmarks, curves, surfaces, images etc. We demonstrate the asymptotic bias of the template shape estimation using the stratified geometry of the shape space. We give a Taylor expansion of t…
Proves a special case of the Gaussian kinematic formula using large sphere limits.
problem Proving a special case of the Gaussian kinematic formula.
method Viewing the GKF as the limit of spherical kinematic formulas for large dimension spheres.
result Proves a special case of the Gaussian kinematic formula.
Unified framework for analyzing machine learning model attributions.
problem Lack of a general and theoretical framework for understanding attribution methods.
method Proposes a Taylor attribution framework to unify and analyze seven mainstream attribution methods.
result Established three principles for good attribution and empirically validated the Taylor reformulations.
We introduce Taylor expansions that do not require the differentiability. We also provide new solutions to partial differential equations. We apply our methods to finance.
In this work we consider the Taylor expansion of the exponential map of a submanifold immersed in R^n up to order three, in order to introduce the concepts of lateral and frontal deviation. We compute the directions of extreme lateral and frontal deviation for surfaces in R^3. Also we compute, by using the Taylor expan…
New resonance theory for Anosov flows connects spectral properties to mixing measures.
problem Defining and analyzing Ruelle-Taylor resonances for Anosov actions.
method Combining microlocal methods and J. Taylor's cohomological theory, defining Ruelle-Taylor resonances and proving Fredholm theory.
result Ruelle-Taylor resonances form a discrete subset of with being a leading resonance.
New sampling scheme improves ML accuracy in physics simulations.
problem Improving accuracy of ML models in physics simulations.
method Taylor-based data sampling scheme for DNNs.
result Reduces error in DNN solutions of ODE systems.
We provide new exact Taylor's series with fixed coefficients and without the remainder. We demonstrate the usefulness of this contribution by using it to obtain very simple solutions to (non-linear) PDEs. We also apply the method to the portfolio model.
In this paper we study the Taylor series of an operator-valued function related to the differential of the exponential map. For a smooth manifold with a torsion-free affine connection the operator acting on the space is defined to be the composition of the differential …
This technical report constructs a theoretical framework to relate standard Taylor approximation based optimisation methods with Natural Gradient (NG), a method which is Fisher efficient with probabilistic models. Such a framework will be shown to also provide mathematical justification to combine higher order methods …
We apply results of Malliavin-Thalmaier-Watanabe for strong and weak Taylor expansions of solutions of perturbed stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In particular, we work out weight expressions for the Taylor coefficients of the expansion. The results are applied to LIBOR market models in order to deal with the …
Tabular Q-learning outperforms advanced RL methods in monetary policy.
problem Dynamic setting of short-term interest rates to stabilize inflation and unemployment under uncertain macroeconomic conditions.
method Discrete-action Markov Decision Process with tabular Q-learning, SARSA, Actor-Critic, Deep Q-Networks, Bayesian Q-learning, POMDP formulations.
result Standard tabular Q-learning achieved the best performance (-615.13 +- 309.58 mean return) compared to advanced RL methods and traditional policy rules.
The paper modifies asset pricing models using Taylor series expansions and market-based averages.
problem Improving asset pricing models to better reflect market dynamics.
method Derives new pricing equations using Taylor series expansions and market-based averages.
result New expressions for asset prices and volatilities derived from market data.
Attribution methods aim to explain a neural network's prediction by highlighting the most relevant image areas. A popular approach is to backpropagate (BP) a custom relevance score using modified rules, rather than the gradient. We analyze an extensive set of modified BP methods: Deep Taylor Decomposition, Layer-wise R…
In this paper we derive estimates to the free boundary problem for the Euler equation with surface tension, and without surface tension provided the Rayleigh-Taylor sign condition holds. We prove that as the surface tension tends to zero, when the Rayleigh-Taylor condition is satisfied, solutions converge to the Euler …
In this paper we propose a closed-form approximation for the price of basket options under a multivariate Black-Scholes model, based on Taylor expansions and the calculation of mixed exponential-power moments of a Gaussian distribution. Our numerical results show that a second order expansion provides accurate prices o…
We describe Taylor towers for spaces of knots arising from Goodwillie-Weiss calculus of the embedding functor and extend the configuration space integrals of Bott and Taubes from spaces of knots to the stages of the towers. We show that certain combinations of integrals, indexed by trivalent diagrams, yield cohomology …
Taylor Learningstat.ML
New learning algorithm for real analytic functions without gradient descent.
problem Learning real analytic functions without gradient descent.
method Taylor approximation and sampling data distribution.
result Nonuniform learning result for real analytic functions.
The paper calculates Bachelier option prices using Taylor expansions and applies it as a variance reduction technique.
problem Calculating Bachelier option prices and variance reduction in correlated cases.
method Taylor expansions and classical Itô calculus to derive option prices, uses negative powers of future mean volatility.
result The paper provides a new method to calculate Bachelier option prices and applies it to reduce variance in Monte Carlo simulations.
SOAR improves deep networks' robustness against adversarial examples.
problem Improving deep neural networks' robustness against adversarial examples.
method Formulated adversarial robustness problem under robust optimization framework, approximated loss function using second-order Taylor series expansion.
result SOAR significantly improves robustness of networks against adversarial perturbations.
Let M and N be smooth manifolds. For an open V of M let emb(V,N) be the space of embeddings from V to N. By results of Goodwillie and Goodwillie-Klein, the cofunctor V |--> emb(V,N) is analytic if dim(N)-dim(M) > 2. We deduce that its Taylor series converges to it. For details about the Taylor series, see Part I.
Taylor's law of temporal fluctuation scaling, variance mean, is ubiquitous in natural and social sciences. We report for the first time convincing evidence of a solid temporal fluctuation scaling law in stock illiquidity by investigating the mean-variance relationship of the high-frequency illiquidity o…
We consider closed-form approximations for European put option prices within the Heston and GARCH diffusion stochastic volatility models with time-dependent parameters. Our methodology involves writing the put option price as an expectation of a Black-Scholes formula and performing a second-order Taylor expansion aroun…
We associate a Taylor tower supplied by calculus of the embedding functor to the space of long knots and study its cohomology spectral sequence. The combinatorics of the spectral sequence along the line of total degree zero leads to chord diagrams with relations as in finite type knot theory. We show that the spectral …
Paper develops formulas for shape derivatives in wave scattering.
problem Computing high order shape derivatives for wave scattering is challenging.
method Introduces elegant recurrence formulas using differential forms and Lie derivatives.
result Unified framework for computing high order shape perturbations in scattering problems.
Defines action on knot spaces using cacti and cubes.
problem Understanding the space of framed long knots.
method Defines an action of cacti operad on the Taylor tower of framed long knots.
result Improves previous work on Vassiliev invariants.
Shallow neural networks can represent polynomials efficiently.
problem Representing polynomials using shallow neural networks.
method Using shallow neural networks of width to represent -variate polynomials of degree .
result Derives minimax optimal convergence rate for shallow networks to unknown univariate regression functions.
Formalizes synthetic differential geometry in Lean.
problem Formalizing synthetic differential geometry in a proof assistant.
method Formalization of synthetic differential geometry with Lean and mathlib.
result Proves a Taylor theorem for functions of several variables.
Scannell and Sinha considered a spectral sequence to calculate the rational homotopy groups of spaces of long knots in n-dimensional Euclidean space, for n greater than or equal to 4. At the end of their paper they conjecture that when n is odd, the terms on the antidiagonal on the second page precisely give the space …
Let M and N be smooth manifolds without boundary. Immersion theory suggests that an understanding of the space of smooth embeddings emb(M,N) should come from an analysis of the cofunctor V |--> emb(V,N) from the poset O of open subsets of M to spaces. We therefore abstract some of the properties of this cofunctor, and …