A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper analyzes how automated market makers can retain trading fees.
The potential approach is a general and simple method for modelling interest rates, foreign exchange rates, and in principle other types of financial assets. This paper takes data on some liquid interest rate derivatives, and fits potential models using a small finite-state Markov chain as the base Markov process.
The paper discusses the role of monetary policy when potential output depends on the inflation rate. If the intention of the central bank is to maximize actual output growth, then it has to be credibly committed to a strict inflation targeting rule, and to take the MOGIR (the Maximizing Output Growth Inflation Rate) as…
Collaborative filtering is a useful technique for exploiting the preference patterns of a group of users to predict the utility of items for the active user. In general, the performance of collaborative filtering depends on the number of rated examples given by the active user. The more the number of rated examples giv…
At present, there is an explosion of practical interest in the pricing of interest rate (IR) derivatives. Textbook pricing methods do not take into account the leptokurticity of the underlying IR process. In this paper, such a leptokurtic behaviour is illustrated using LIBOR data, and a possible martingale pricing sche…
We introduce a tractable multi-currency model with stochastic volatility and correlated stochastic interest rates that takes into account the smile in the FX market and the evolution of yield curves. The pricing of vanilla options on FX rates can be performed effciently through the FFT methodology thanks to the affinit…
We present a continuous-time maximum likelihood estimation methodology for credit rating transition probabilities, taking into account the presence of censored data. We perform rolling estimates of the transition matrices with exponential time weighting with varying horizons and discuss the underlying dynamics of trans…
Integrating adaptive learning rate and momentum techniques into SGD leads to a large class of efficiently accelerated adaptive stochastic algorithms, such as AdaGrad, RMSProp, Adam, AccAdaGrad, \textit{etc}. In spite of their effectiveness in practice, there is still a large gap in their theories of convergences, espec…
We apply multiple testing procedures to the validation of estimated default probabilities in credit rating systems. The goal is to identify rating classes for which the probability of default is estimated inaccurately, while still maintaining a predefined level of committing type I errors as measured by the familywise …
Study optimizes dividend payout strategies under fluctuating interest rates.
Survey examines machine learning for credit rating predictions.
AutoSGD automatically adjusts learning rates for SGD.
The general and special repo rates are related with the prices of the European call- and American put-options. The evaluation takes into account specific business models of the parties in the repo agreement and the law restrictions. Using the repo-option relation, an alternative to the Black-Scholes method of option pr…
Examines SOFR derivatives pricing and hedging post-LIBOR discontinuation.
This paper investigates the nonparametric regression problem using SVMs with anisotropic Gaussian RBF kernels. Under the assumption that the target functions are resided in certain anisotropic Besov spaces, we establish the almost optimal learning rates, more precisely, optimal up to some logarithmic factor, presented …
Asynchronous stochastic gradient descent (ASGD) is a popular parallel optimization algorithm in machine learning. Most theoretical analysis on ASGD take a discrete view and prove upper bounds for their convergence rates. However, the discrete view has its intrinsic limitations: there is no characterization of the optim…
We consider the use of no-regret algorithms to compute equilibria for particular classes of convex-concave games. While standard regret bounds would lead to convergence rates on the order of , recent work \citep{RS13,SALS15} has established rates by taking advantage of a particular class of optimi…
The study shows interest rates impact investment and funding negatively but positively on dividend decisions.
In this paper, we tackle the real-world problem of predicting Yelp star-review rating based on business features (such as images, descriptions), user features (average previous ratings), and, of particular interest, network properties (which businesses has a user rated before). We compare multiple models on different s…
Optimal buying and selling times for homes in fluctuating interest rates.
New methods for inferring, predicting, and estimating continuous-time, discrete-event processes.
Paper optimizes clustering for multi-layer networks and discrete mixtures.
Paper tackles ESG rating disagreement in sustainable investing portfolios.
The paper analyzes and improves the learning rates of distributed kernel ridge regression.
We present an arbitrage-free non-parametric yield curve prediction model which takes the full (discretized) yield curve as state variable. We believe that absence of arbitrage is an important model feature in case of highly correlated data, as it is the case for interest rates. Furthermore, the model structure allows t…
Derives equations for life insurance reserves with interest rate uncertainty.
In many professons employees are rewarded according to their relative performance. Corresponding economy can be modeled by taking independent agents who gain from the market with a rate which depends on their current gain. We argue that this simple realistic rate generates a scale free distribution even though intr…
This paper proposes two numerical solution based on Product Optimal Quantization for the pricing of Foreign Echange (FX) linked long term Bermudan options e.g. Bermudan Power Reverse Dual Currency options, where we take into account stochastic domestic and foreign interest rates on top of stochastic FX rate, hence we c…
Multi-criteria recommender systems have been increasingly valuable for helping consumers identify the most relevant items based on different dimensions of user experiences. However, previously proposed multi-criteria models did not take into account latent embeddings generated from user reviews, which capture latent se…
Study on CNNs' learning rates and approximation capacities.
The aim of this paper is to present a dual-term structure model of interest rate derivatives in order to solve the two hardest problems in financial modeling: the exact volatility calibration of the entire swaption matrix, and the calculation of bucket vegas for structured products. The model takes a series of long-ter…
We study pool-based active learning with abstention feedbacks where a labeler can abstain from labeling a queried example with some unknown abstention rate. This is an important problem with many useful applications. We take a Bayesian approach to the problem and develop two new greedy algorithms that learn both the cl…
An Entropic Dynamics of exchange rates is laid down to model the dynamics of foreign exchange rates, FX, and European Options on FX. The main objective is to represent an alternative framework to model dynamics. Entropic inference is an inductive inference framework equipped with proper tools to handle situations where…
In general, homeowners refinance in response to a decrease in interest rates, as their borrowing costs are lowered. However, it is worth investigating the effects of refinancing after taking the underlying costs into consideration. Here we develop a synthetic mortgage calculator that sufficiently accounts for such cost…
Lossy compression algorithms are typically designed and analyzed through the lens of Shannon's rate-distortion theory, where the goal is to achieve the lowest possible distortion (e.g., low MSE or high SSIM) at any given bit rate. However, in recent years, it has become increasingly accepted that "low distortion" is no…
Clarifies interest rate cap rules for loans with unconventional cash flows.
This paper provides intuition on the relationship of accrual and mark-to-market valuation for cash and forward interest rate trades. Discounted cashflow valuation is compared to spread-based valuation for forward trades, which explains the trader's view on valuation. This is followed by Taylor series approximation for …
We study pool-based active learning with abstention feedbacks, where a labeler can abstain from labeling a queried example with some unknown abstention rate. This is an important problem with many useful applications. We take a Bayesian approach to the problem and develop two new greedy algorithms that learn both the c…
Study optimizes learning rates for conditional mean embedding estimates.
The paper uncovers two key laws of market impact influenced by volume and participation rate.
Two of the most fundamental prototypes of greedy optimization are the matching pursuit and Frank-Wolfe algorithms. In this paper, we take a unified view on both classes of methods, leading to the first explicit convergence rates of matching pursuit methods in an optimization sense, for general sets of atoms. We derive …
New research shows unlabeled data is equally valuable as labeled data in certain semi-supervised learning scenarios.
Learning a classifier with control on the false-positive rate plays a critical role in many machine learning applications. Existing approaches either introduce prior knowledge dependent label cost or tune parameters based on traditional classifiers, which lack consistency in methodology because they do not strictly adh…
Most methods for decision-theoretic online learning are based on the Hedge algorithm, which takes a parameter called the learning rate. In most previous analyses the learning rate was carefully tuned to obtain optimal worst-case performance, leading to suboptimal performance on easy instances, for example when there ex…
Calculates winning probability for three candidates based on support rates and information timing.
Negative momentum accelerates convergence in minimax games but at a suboptimal rate.
Study the properties of SGD in non-vanishing learning rate regime.
This study analyzes the alignment between charter value and supervision in banks.