Optimal sampling strategy improves prediction accuracy with surrogate variables under measurement constraints.
problem Measurement-constrained datasets and lack of labeled data.
method A-optimality criterion for optimal sampling, leveraging surrogate variables.
result Achieves lower asymptotic variance and reduced empirical mean squared error.
Interpretable surrogates of black-box predictors trained on high-dimensional tabular datasets can struggle to generate comprehensible explanations in the presence of correlated variables. We propose a model-agnostic interpretable surrogate that provides global and local explanations of black-box classifiers to address …
MVRSM optimizes expensive functions with mixed variables, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
problem Minimizing expensive functions with mixed continuous and integer variables.
method Mixed-Variable ReLU-based Surrogate Modelling (MVRSM) using rectified linear units.
result MVRSM outperforms state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-life benchmarks.
SMT-EX enhances SMT for explaining surrogate models of mixed-variable design problems.
problem Making decisions and understanding complex systems using surrogate models of mixed-variable design problems.
method Integrates explainability techniques into SMT, including Shapley Additive Explanations, Partial Dependence Plot, and Individual Conditional Expectations.
result Demonstrates versatility in addressing diverse problem characteristics.
Improving predictive understanding of Earth system variability and change requires data-model integration. Efficient data-model integration for complex models requires surrogate modeling to reduce model evaluation time. However, building a surrogate of a large-scale Earth system model (ESM) with many output variables i…
We present a framework for automatically structuring and training fast, approximate, deep neural surrogates of stochastic simulators. Unlike traditional approaches to surrogate modeling, our surrogates retain the interpretable structure and control flow of the reference simulator. Our surrogates target stochastic simul…
Unified framework for modeling hierarchical spaces in design problems.
problem Challenges in modeling hierarchical, conditional, heterogeneous, or tree-structured domains.
method Unified framework combining feature modeling and graph theory, introducing meta and partially-decreed variables.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on complex system design problems, including neural networks and green-aircraft.
Continuous high frequency water quality monitoring is becoming a critical task to support water management. Despite the advancements in sensor technologies, certain variables cannot be easily and/or economically monitored in-situ and in real time. In these cases, surrogate measures can be used to make estimations by me…
We learn a compact surrogate model for optimization problems to reduce training and inference time.
problem Solving optimization problems with unknown parameters is computationally expensive and may lead to suboptimal solutions.
method We represent the optimization problem in terms of meta-variables and learn a low-dimensional surrogate model end-to-end with the predictive model.
result We achieve a large reduction in training and inference time, and improved performance.
Adaptive learning method for stochastic programs with latent uncertainty.
problem Stochastic programming problems with implicitly decision-dependent uncertainty.
method Adaptive learning-based surrogate method integrating simulation and statistical estimates.
result Established non-asymptotic convergence rate analysis for enhanced stability and efficiency.
Develops a transparent surrogate model for complex data.
problem Balancing accuracy and transparency in complex decision-making models.
method Partial dependence effects for feature engineering, smart segmentation, and GLM fitting.
result The maidrr GLM closely approximates a black box model and outperforms benchmarks.
Optimal kernel learning improves GP regression for high-dimensional inputs.
problem High computational costs and low prediction accuracy in GP models with many inputs.
method Approximates GP covariance with a convex combination of kernel functions, identifying active variables.
result Improves prediction accuracy and correctly identifies active input variables.
Optimizing expensive black-box systems with limited data is an extremely challenging problem. As a resolution, we present a new surrogate optimization approach by addressing two gaps in prior research -- unimportant input variables and inefficient treatment of uncertainty associated with the black-box output. We first …
This paper develops efficient surrogate models for optimization of complex dynamical systems.
problem Computational expense in solving complex dynamical systems through numerical simulation.
method Combination of proper orthogonal decomposition and radial basis functions for constructing low-dimensional surrogate models.
result Surrogate models reduce computational time for optimization problems while maintaining accuracy.
A hybrid model for Bayesian optimization handles mixed variables using MCTS for categorical and GP for continuous.
problem Optimizing functions with mixed variable types (continuous, integer, categorical).
method Merges MCTS for categorical and GP for continuous variables, integrates UCTS search strategy, and dynamically selects kernels.
result Hybrid models outperform traditional methods in Bayesian optimization.
REMAL: Residual Equilibrium Manifold Active Learning for Surrogate-Based Multidisciplinary Design Analysis
problem Multidisciplinary design analysis of coupled engineering systems requires solving equilibrium states where all disciplinary coupling variables are consistent.
method Residual manifold surrogate modeling framework for coupled systems.
result REMAL learns a surrogate model of the joint residual manifold via multitask Gaussian process models.
This research develops efficient surrogate models for predicting crack growth in metal structures.
problem Accurately predicting crack growth in metal structures under uncertainty.
method Employing Gaussian Process (GP) regression models for latent variable modeling to create probabilistic surrogate models.
result Surrogate models successfully encode material and load-related uncertainties in stochastic crack growth processes.
Bayesian optimization reduces hyperparameters for mixed variable design problems.
problem Optimizing designs with a large number of mixed continuous, integer, and categorical variables.
method Adaptive dimension reduction using partial least squares for fewer hyperparameters.
result Significant improvement in performance compared to genetic algorithms.
The paper proposes a method to estimate treatment effects using surrogates when primary outcomes are missing.
problem Missing primary outcomes in causal inference applications can lead to biased estimates.
method Doubly robust method that uses both labeled and unlabeled data, incorporating surrogates.
result The proposed estimator is asymptotically normal and has improved variance compared to methods using only labeled data.
We present a probabilistic deep learning methodology that enables the construction of predictive data-driven surrogates for stochastic systems. Leveraging recent advances in variational inference with implicit distributions, we put forth a statistical inference framework that enables the end-to-end training of surrogat…
Survey connects XAI and surrogate modeling for better understanding of complex systems.
problem Opaque surrogate models hide input-output relationships, hindering decision-making.
method Synthesizes XAI techniques with surrogate modeling workflows.
result Surrogate models can be made more interpretable using XAI methods.
A Ph.D. thesis proposes an efficient approach for optimizing aircraft eco-design with high-dimensional mixed integer variables.
problem Optimizing aircraft eco-design with high-dimensional mixed integer variables.
method EGO optimization approach based on sequential enrichment of adaptive surrogate models, adapted for high-dimensional and mixed variable spaces.
result Effective parameterization tools significantly reduce the number of design variables, enabling optimization of complex aircraft concepts.
New method uses surrogate outcomes and single-record data to improve suicide risk modeling.
problem Lack of historical information in single-record patients hinders modeling rare medical events.
method Hybrid framework combining supervised and unsupervised learning to integrate concurrent and single-record data.
result Single-record data and concurrent diagnoses provide valuable information for improving suicide risk modeling.
Unified framework for efficient surrogate modeling in manufacturing.
problem Large data requirements and heterogeneous data sources in manufacturing.
method Hierarchical multi-task multi-fidelity (H-MT-MF) framework for Gaussian process-based surrogate modeling.
result Improves prediction accuracy by up to 23% compared to existing methods.
A new beta-VAE based regression model accelerates oilfield optimization studies.
problem Computational expense of full-physics reservoir simulations.
method beta-VAE for interpretable latent space representation, probabilistic dense layers for uncertainty quantification.
result Interpretable latent representation and quantified uncertainty for optimization decisions.
New method learns exogenous variable distributions for better causal optimization.
problem Maximizing target variables in structural causal models.
method Learn exogenous variable distributions to improve surrogate models' fidelity.
result Improves approximation of structural causal models and broader application scenarios.
This paper proposes a mechanism to produce equivalent Lipschitz surrogates for zero-norm and rank optimization problems by means of the global exact penalty for their equivalent mathematical programs with an equilibrium constraint (MPECs). Specifically, we reformulate these combinatorial problems as equivalent MPECs by…
A new framework uses an Incremental Transformer to design geopolymer mixtures efficiently.
problem Designing geopolymer mixtures with limited data and physical constraints.
method Topology-aware surrogate framework guided by Incremental Transformer.
result The design space is redundant, with fewer effective mixture regimes.
Paper uses PCE to quantify ML model and input uncertainties.
problem Accurately quantify and propagate combined uncertainties in ML predictions.
method Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) for joint input and model uncertainty.
result Efficient and accurate calculation of output variability and sensitivity.
Gradient-informed BNNs improve Bayesian optimization performance.
problem Improving Bayesian optimization with gradient information.
method Gradient-informed loss function for Bayesian neural networks.
result Gradient information enhances BNN predictions and BO convergence.
Surrogate models help predict complex systems with less computational cost.
problem Uncertainty in complex systems due to variability and external loads.
method Surrogate models trained on limited simulations to approximate full time-dependent response.
result Efficient surrogate models reduce computational expense for UQ in nonlinear dynamics.
NoFAS combines variational inference and adaptive surrogate models for efficient inference of computationally expensive models.
problem Efficient inference of parameters from data with computationally expensive models.
method Variational inference with normalizing flow and adaptive surrogate model training.
result NoFAS reduces computational cost without sacrificing inferential accuracy.
Improves Bayesian optimization efficiency for mixed variable spaces.
problem Boosting sample efficiency in Bayesian optimization for mixed variable spaces.
method Proposes frequency modulated (FM) kernels to model complex dependencies across different types of variables.
result BO-FM outperforms competitors in various optimization problems.
New framework tackles high-dimensional reliability analysis using surrogate models and active subspaces.
problem High computational cost and curse of dimensionality in reliability analysis of high-dimensional systems.
method Sparse Active Subspace (SAS) algorithm for identifying low-dimensional manifolds and constructing efficient surrogate models.
result Proposed framework significantly improves accuracy and efficiency of reliability analysis compared to existing methods.
We study critera for a pair ({Xn}, {Yn}) of approximating processes which guarantee closeness of moments by generalizing known results for the special case that Yn=Y for all n and Xn converges to Y in probability. This problem especially arises when working with surrogate models, e.g. …
Proposes a framework to incorporate global sensitivity into local surrogate models.
problem Narrowing focus to local scale in surrogate modeling leads to re-learning global trends.
method Integrates global sensitivity analysis into local surrogate models through input warping.
result Local models become equally sensitive to all input directions, focusing on local dynamics.
SBBO optimizes complex spaces using sampling-based models.
problem Optimizing complex spaces with discrete variables.
method Simulation Based Bayesian Optimization (SBBO) using sampling-based surrogate models.
result Empirical effectiveness of SBBO in combinatorial optimization.
Unified Bayesian framework for uncertainty quantification in mechanics.
problem Propagation of input uncertainties and inference of unknown parameters.
method Bayesian probability theory for forward and inverse problems.
result Unified theoretical framework for both forward and inverse UQ.
Surrogate models provide a low computational cost alternative to evaluating expensive functions. The construction of accurate surrogate models with large numbers of independent variables is currently prohibitive because it requires a large number of function evaluations. Gradient-enhanced kriging has the potential to r…
We extend recent work (Brehmer, et. al., 2018) that use neural networks as surrogate models for likelihood-free inference. As in the previous work, we exploit the fact that the joint likelihood ratio and joint score, conditioned on both observed and latent variables, can often be extracted from an implicit generative m…
Unified framework for sampling and approximating high-dimensional energy landscapes.
problem Sampling and approximating complex energy landscapes in physical systems with constraints and energy barriers.
method Formulates a minimax optimization problem that jointly adapts surrogate approximation and adaptive sampling.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in biomolecular systems with up to 30 collective variables.
Improves disease progression prediction using auxiliary surrogate labels and health markers.
problem Challenges in predicting disease progression due to unknown true disease states.
method Integrates hidden Markov model with time-varying discriminative classification model.
result Significant improvement in distinguishing LBD from AD using objective markers.
Deep adaptive sampling improves surrogate modeling for complex systems.
problem Statistical errors in random sampling for high-dimensional problems.
method DAS^2 method, using deep generative models to refine training sets.
result Reduces statistical errors in approximating solutions for low-regularity problems.
When a black-box optimization objective can only be evaluated with costly or noisy measurements, most standard optimization algorithms are unsuited to find the optimal solution. Specialized algorithms that deal with exactly this situation make use of surrogate models. These models are usually continuous and smooth, whi…
In this manuscript, we research on the behaviors of surrogates for the rank function on different image processing problems and their optimization algorithms. We first propose a novel nonconvex rank surrogate on the general rank minimization problem and apply this to the corrupted image completion problem. Then, we pro…
Surrogate model construction for vector-valued outputs
problem Improving surrogate model accuracy and stability for complex engineering systems
method Adaptive sequential sampling for polynomial chaos expansion
result Improves surrogate accuracy and stability
We develop DTs for PDE models using KL-NN and TL, analyzing TL's moment equations and one-shot learning for exactness.
problem Creating accurate digital twins for systems governed by PDEs under changing conditions.
method We use KL-NN surrogate models and transfer learning to construct DTs, analyzing the moment equations and proposing one-shot and few-shot learning methods.
result For linear PDEs, one-shot TL is exact; for nonlinear PDEs, some parameters can be transferred with minimal error.
Paper introduces efficient methods for estimating cross-partial derivatives and sensitivity indices.
problem Efficiently estimating cross-partial derivatives and sensitivity indices in complex models.
method Using randomized points and constraints, the paper develops estimators with optimal convergence rates and low bias.
result The estimators achieve optimal rates of convergence and do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality.