Improving predictive understanding of Earth system variability and change requires data-model integration. Efficient data-model integration for complex models requires surrogate modeling to reduce model evaluation time. However, building a surrogate of a large-scale Earth system model (ESM) with many output variables i…
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48 results for “Surrogate Modeling”
Paper proposes hybrid modeling to improve surrogate accuracy using multiple data sources.
problem Improving surrogate model accuracy by integrating simulation and real-world data.
method Two novel probabilistic approaches: separate and combined surrogates with weighting strategy.
result Hybrid models improve predictive accuracy and coverage compared to single-source surrogates.
The paper proposes a scalable framework for uncertainty quantification and propagation in surrogate-based Bayesian inference.
problem Uncertainty in surrogate models and its impact on inference and decision-making.
method Bayesian inference methods for surrogate models with measurement data.
result Scalable framework for uncertainty quantification and propagation in surrogate models.
This work improves surrogate models for balancing accuracy and cost in multi-fidelity methods.
problem Balancing accuracy and computational cost in multi-fidelity methods.
method Develops context-aware surrogate models for multi-fidelity importance sampling and Bayesian inverse problems.
result Context-aware surrogate models can lead to runtime speedups of up to one order of magnitude.
This paper develops efficient surrogate models for optimization of complex dynamical systems.
problem Computational expense in solving complex dynamical systems through numerical simulation.
method Combination of proper orthogonal decomposition and radial basis functions for constructing low-dimensional surrogate models.
result Surrogate models reduce computational time for optimization problems while maintaining accuracy.
Thanks to their versatility, ease of deployment and high-performance, surrogate models have become staple tools in the arsenal of uncertainty quantification (UQ). From local interpolants to global spectral decompositions, surrogates are characterised by their ability to efficiently emulate complex computational models …
We present a framework for automatically structuring and training fast, approximate, deep neural surrogates of stochastic simulators. Unlike traditional approaches to surrogate modeling, our surrogates retain the interpretable structure and control flow of the reference simulator. Our surrogates target stochastic simul…
ASEs use surrogate estimation to efficiently evaluate model performance with minimal labels.
problem Efficient model evaluation with limited labels.
method Surrogate-based estimation and active learning.
result ASEs offer greater label-efficiency than current methods for deep neural networks.
Develops methods to create consistent surrogate models for agent-based simulators.
problem High computational costs and misjudgment of interventions in agent-based models.
method Causal abstractions to learn interventionally consistent surrogate models.
result Surrogates trained for interventional consistency closely mimic the agent-based model's behavior under interventions.
New method uses sparse random features for crashworthiness analysis.
problem Efficient surrogate modelling for uncertainty quantification.
method Sparse Random Features combined with self-supervised dimensionality reduction.
result Superiority over state-of-the-art techniques in crashworthiness analysis.
Uncertainty-Aware Surrogate-based Amortized Bayesian Inference for Computationally Expensive Modelsstat.ML
UA-SABI uses surrogates to speed up Bayesian inference for expensive models.
problem Inference for computationally expensive models is slow and uncertain.
method Combines surrogate modeling with Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) to propagate uncertainties.
result Reliable, fast, and repeated Bayesian inference for expensive models is achieved.
Surrogate models speed up RL training in dynamic systems.
problem High computational cost of high-fidelity simulations.
method Developed and tested surrogate models for RL training.
result Surrogate models can significantly accelerate RL training.
Bayesian surrogate models reduce uncertainty in high-dimensional design optimisation problems.
problem Uncertainty in high-dimensional inputs for complex computational models.
method Variational Bayesian inference for constructing statistical surrogates with Gaussian process priors and KL divergence for approximation.
result The RDVGP surrogate provides accurate and versatile approximations for robust structural optimisation.
The paper uses model-based trees to create interpretable surrogate models for complex machine learning models.
problem Interpreting complex machine learning models.
method Using model-based trees to partition feature space and create interpretable models.
result Model-based trees generate optimal surrogate models that balance interpretability and performance.
Bayesian method refines surrogate models for accurate full waveform inversion.
problem Complex input/output relations in full waveform inversion make accurate surrogate models difficult.
method Iterative refinement of surrogate models using MCMC samples and progressively expanding frequency bandwidth.
result Highly accurate surrogate model across full bandwidth enables accurate final MCMC inversion.
This paper develops nudging algorithms using learned surrogates for state estimation in dynamical systems.
problem Estimating the state of a dynamical system from partial observations when dynamics are unknown or expensive to simulate.
method Unified finite-dimensional analysis of nudging algorithms employing learned surrogate models of the dynamics.
result Nudging algorithms with surrogate models retain exponential convergence up to an explicit error floor.
GUESS improves surrogate model accuracy with adaptive sampling.
problem Creating accurate surrogate models with limited data.
method Gradient and Uncertainty Enhanced Sequential Sampling (GUESS) using predictive uncertainty and Taylor expansion.
result GUESS achieved highest sample efficiency compared to other strategies.
Enhances PCE surrogates using transfer learning for expensive simulations.
problem Over-sampling in PCE for expensive forward models.
method Transfer learning from similar tasks to a new task with limited training data.
result Improves scalability and accuracy of PCE surrogates.
Seq2Seq models speed up epidemic model predictions.
problem Complex epidemic models are computationally expensive.
method Used deep seq2seq models as surrogates for complex models.
result Surrogates predict scenarios up to several thousand times faster.
New method integrates real and synthetic data to improve machine learning models.
problem Expensive or impractical collection of high-quality data limits machine learning.
method Weighted empirical risk minimization approach for integrating surrogate data.
result Integrating surrogate data can significantly reduce test error on the original distribution.
Proposes a method to improve surrogate models by incorporating sensitivity information.
problem Pruned neural networks often fail to capture sensitivities and uncertainties of original models.
method Combines Interval Adjoint Significance Analysis and Sobolev Training to accurately model sensitivities.
result Pruned models based on the proposed method better match original sensitivities.
The paper develops a faster surrogate model for simulators using hybrid methods.
problem The need for faster validation of automotive technologies using simulators.
method Testing classical methods and building hybrid models combining them.
result A hybrid surrogate model outperforms classical methods in multivariate time series prediction.
TgAE constructs surrogates for inverse modeling with theory-guided training.
problem Creating accurate surrogates for inverse modeling with limited data.
method Theory-guided Auto-Encoder (TgAE) framework based on CNN architecture.
result TgAE surrogate achieves satisfactory accuracy and efficiency in uncertainty quantification and parameter inversion.
Optimal Sampling for Generalized Linear Model under Measurement Constraint with Surrogate Variablesstat.ME
Optimal sampling strategy improves prediction accuracy with surrogate variables under measurement constraints.
problem Measurement-constrained datasets and lack of labeled data.
method A-optimality criterion for optimal sampling, leveraging surrogate variables.
result Achieves lower asymptotic variance and reduced empirical mean squared error.
SMT-EX enhances SMT for explaining surrogate models of mixed-variable design problems.
problem Making decisions and understanding complex systems using surrogate models of mixed-variable design problems.
method Integrates explainability techniques into SMT, including Shapley Additive Explanations, Partial Dependence Plot, and Individual Conditional Expectations.
result Demonstrates versatility in addressing diverse problem characteristics.
Surrogate explainers of black-box machine learning predictions are of paramount importance in the field of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence since they can be applied to any type of data (images, text and tabular), are model-agnostic and are post-hoc (i.e., can be retrofitted). The Local Interpretable Model-agnostic …
Computational simulations with different fidelity have been widely used in engineering design. A high-fidelity (HF) model is generally more accurate but also more time-consuming than an low-fidelity (LF) model. To take advantages of both HF and LF models, multi-fidelity surrogate models that aim to integrate informatio…
NoFAS combines variational inference and adaptive surrogate models for efficient inference of computationally expensive models.
problem Efficient inference of parameters from data with computationally expensive models.
method Variational inference with normalizing flow and adaptive surrogate model training.
result NoFAS reduces computational cost without sacrificing inferential accuracy.
Integration of Active Learning and MCMC Sampling for Efficient Bayesian Calibration of Mechanical Propertiesphysics.comp-ph
Study improves Bayesian calibration of mechanical properties using active learning and MCMC.
problem Inference of spatially varying material parameters in computational mechanics.
method Comprehensive comparative study of surrogate models and MCMC algorithms.
result Active learning strategy outperforms a priori trained models in posterior estimation.
This paper investigates the control of an ML component within the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES) devoted to black-box optimization. The known CMA-ES weakness is its sample complexity, the number of evaluations of the objective function needed to approximate the global optimum. This weakness is…
This work improves surrogate models using low-fidelity data to enhance accuracy and efficiency.
problem Limited training data makes high-fidelity models unreliable.
method Uses low-fidelity data to augment input space and condition high-fidelity models.
result Increased predictive accuracy and reduced computational cost compared to existing methods.
Proposal-Guided Greedy Surrogate Refinement for PDE-Driven High-Dimensional Rare-Event Estimationmath.NA
Proposes a method to refine PDE-driven high-dimensional rare-event simulation.
problem Challenges in constructing accurate surrogates for rare-event simulation.
method Adaptive importance sampling framework that refines a locally constructed surrogate.
result Achieves accuracy comparable to true-model adaptive importance sampling with fewer high-fidelity evaluations.
SURGIN uses generative models to infer subsurface flow data efficiently.
problem Inefficient and task-specific inversion methods for subsurface multiphase flow.
method SURGIN integrates U-FNO surrogate with SGM for zero-shot conditional generation.
result Decent inference of heterogeneous geological fields and flow dynamics with uncertainty quantification.
New bounds show polyhedral surrogates are optimal for generalization.
problem Proving generalization rates for polyhedral loss functions.
method Developed two general results for polyhedral surrogates.
result Polyhedral surrogates provide linear surrogate regret bounds, translating directly to target rates.
Local surrogate model improves time series forecasts and provides interpretable explanations.
problem Improving time series forecasting accuracy while maintaining interpretability.
method A local surrogate model is used to correct the base model's predictions, making the corrections interpretable by re-fitting the base model to the error-predicted data.
result The method can discover and explain underlying patterns in the data, improving both accuracy and interpretability.
A new method SLIDE ensures fairness in AI models.
problem Ensuring fairness in AI models while maintaining computational feasibility.
method Proposes a new surrogate fairness constraint SLIDE.
result SLIDE ensures fairness in AI models asymptotically and converges fast.
Concept Tree: High-Level Representation of Variables for More Interpretable Surrogate Decision Treesstat.ML
Interpretable surrogates of black-box predictors trained on high-dimensional tabular datasets can struggle to generate comprehensible explanations in the presence of correlated variables. We propose a model-agnostic interpretable surrogate that provides global and local explanations of black-box classifiers to address …
ConfEviSurrogate improves surrogate model accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in surrogate models hinders reliable analysis.
method Introduces ConfEviSurrogate, a novel model that learns evidential distributions, separates uncertainty sources, and provides reliable prediction intervals.
result Demonstrates accurate predictions and robust uncertainty estimates in various simulations.
Paper bounds convergence rate of adversarial surrogate risk.
problem Vulnerability of binary classification models to adversarial attacks.
method Characterizes conditions for adversarial consistency and provides surrogate risk bounds.
result Surrogate risk bounds quantify the rate of convergence of adversarial classification risk.
Polynomial chaos surrogates handle intrinsic noise in stochastic models.
problem Handling intrinsic noise in stochastic models with parametric uncertainty.
method Developed a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty using Rosenblatt transformations and Karhunen-Loeve expansion.
result Quantified intrinsic noise contribution to model output variance using PCE Sobol indices.
A new sampling strategy improves reliability and robustness optimization for complex designs.
problem High sample requirements for optimizing reliability and robustness in complex designs.
method Local Latin Hypercube Refinement (LoLHR) for multi-objective design uncertainty optimization.
result LoLHR achieves better results compared to other surrogate-based strategies.
Study on calibration and consistency of adversarial surrogate losses.
problem Designing robust classifiers with theoretical guarantees.
method Extensive analysis of H-calibration and H-consistency of adversarial surrogate losses.
result Some convex loss functions and supremum-based convex losses are not H-calibrated for important hypothesis sets.
Bayes-consistent disagreement discrepancy loss improves model robustness.
problem Distribution shift in real-world neural network deployment.
method Introducing a novel disagreement loss that is Bayes consistent.
result Proves existing surrogates for disagreement discrepancy are not Bayes consistent.
Sequential Bayesian Design for Efficient Surrogate Construction in the Inversion of Darcy Flowsstat.ML
This study proposes an efficient surrogate for Darcy flow inverse problems.
problem Efficiently constructing accurate surrogate models for high-dimensional complex inverse problems.
method Sequential Bayesian design strategy to acquire a locally accurate surrogate model focusing on high-probability regions.
result The proposed method accelerates inversion accuracy and computational speed.
New framework tackles high-dimensional reliability analysis using surrogate models and active subspaces.
problem High computational cost and curse of dimensionality in reliability analysis of high-dimensional systems.
method Sparse Active Subspace (SAS) algorithm for identifying low-dimensional manifolds and constructing efficient surrogate models.
result Proposed framework significantly improves accuracy and efficiency of reliability analysis compared to existing methods.
A new beta-VAE based regression model accelerates oilfield optimization studies.
problem Computational expense of full-physics reservoir simulations.
method beta-VAE for interpretable latent space representation, probabilistic dense layers for uncertainty quantification.
result Interpretable latent representation and quantified uncertainty for optimization decisions.
Paper proposes using tree-based surrogate models for efficient Shapley computation.
problem Efficient computation of Shapley values using conditional expectations.
method Surrogate model-based tree for approximating Shapley and SHAP values.
result The proposed algorithm improves accuracy and unifies global interpretation.
A deep-learning-based surrogate model for data assimilation in dynamic subsurface flow problemscs.LG
A deep-learning-based surrogate model is developed and applied for predicting dynamic subsurface flow in channelized geological models. The surrogate model is based on deep convolutional and recurrent neural network architectures, specifically a residual U-Net and a convolutional long short term memory recurrent networ…