A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper extends Bayes Theorem for interval probability estimates.
New financial dataset and model detect claims affecting market returns.
Geometric framework for aligning fiber tracts across subjects.
We introduce a novel personalized Gaussian Process Experts (pGPE) model for predicting per-subject ADAS-Cog13 cognitive scores -- a significant predictor of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) in the cognitive domain -- over the future 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. We start by training a population-level model using multi-modal data …
Causal inference from observational data is the goal of many data analyses in the health and social sciences. However, academic statistics has often frowned upon data analyses with a causal objective. The introduction of the term "data science" provides a historic opportunity to redefine data analysis in such a way tha…
Improves online learning with expert demonstrations, quality matters.
A natural occurrence of shift equivalence in a purely algebraic setting constitutes the subject matter of the following short exposition.
The paper identifies and analyzes subjective class issues in user-generated data.
Pairwise ranking aligns subjective clinical evaluations with objective indicators.
Survey of algorithms to correct past mistakes in prediction.
Deep neural networks (DNN) excel at extracting patterns. Through representation learning and automated feature engineering on large datasets, such models have been highly successful in computer vision and natural language applications. Designing optimal network architectures from a principled or rational approach howev…
This paper describes a new approach to time series modeling that combines subject-matter knowledge of the system dynamics with statistical techniques in time series analysis and regression. Applications to American option pricing and the Canadian lynx data are given to illustrate this approach.
We consider the Granger causal structure learning problem from time series data. Granger causal algorithms predict a 'Granger causal effect' between two variables by testing if prediction error of one decreases significantly in the absence of the other variable among the predictor covariates. Almost all existing Grange…
New decision support systems use prediction sets to help experts update their predictions, improving performance.
CAI automates extraction and validation of corporate GHG emission metrics.
Pipeline learns topological features for protein stability prediction.
This paper explores the suitability of using automatically discovered topics from MOOC discussion forums for modelling students' academic abilities. The Rasch model from psychometrics is a popular generative probabilistic model that relates latent student skill, latent item difficulty, and observed student-item respons…
Detects project management anti-patterns using code and issue data.
Competency questions help experts select best clustering for energy data.
This is the first monograph on the geometry of anisotropic spinor spaces and its applications in modern physics. The main subjects are the theory of gravity and matter fields in spaces provided with off--diagonal metrics and associated anholonomic frames and nonlinear connection structures, the algebra and geometry of …
Improved algorithm reduces regret in corrupted expert advice setting.
We generalise the problem of inverse reinforcement learning to multiple tasks, from multiple demonstrations. Each one may represent one expert trying to solve a different task, or as different experts trying to solve the same task. Our main contribution is to formalise the problem as statistical preference elicitation,…
VAEs struggle with surjective multimodal data, especially class labels describing images.
AI agent predicts industry and product/service codes for companies.
A new method detects hallucinations in medical image restoration using Fourier Ring Correlation.
Active speaker detection (ASD) and virtual cinematography (VC) can significantly improve the remote user experience of a video conference by automatically panning, tilting and zooming of a video conferencing camera: users subjectively rate an expert video cinematographer's video significantly higher than unedited video…
Paper hypothesizes MLP layers in LLMs can be approximated by sparse Mixture of Experts.
Labeling training data is increasingly the largest bottleneck in deploying machine learning systems. We present Snorkel, a first-of-its-kind system that enables users to train state-of-the-art models without hand labeling any training data. Instead, users write labeling functions that express arbitrary heuristics, whic…
Framework for games with uncertain parameters, ensuring no player can improve by changing strategy.
Paper forecasts corporate default risk using Particle MCMC with expert opinions.
We present a novel approach for supervised domain adaptation that is based upon the probabilistic framework of Gaussian processes (GPs). Specifically, we introduce domain-specific GPs as local experts for facial expression classification from face images. The adaptation of the classifier is facilitated in probabilistic…
We consider the forecast aggregation problem in repeated settings, where the forecasts are done on a binary event. At each period multiple experts provide forecasts about an event. The goal of the aggregator is to aggregate those forecasts into a subjective accurate forecast. We assume that experts are Bayesian; namely…
DPBD simplifies labeling functions through interactive demonstrations.
The development of real-time affect detection models often depends upon obtaining annotated data for supervised learning by employing human experts to label the student data. One open question in annotating affective data for affect detection is whether the labelers (i.e., human experts) need to be socio-culturally sim…
The paper introduces a method to incorporate expert opinion on observable quantities into statistical models.
DriftMoE adapts to concept drifts in data streams efficiently.
A new method routes EEG covariance matrices across domains using adaptive subspace selection.
Data extracted from software repositories is used intensively in Software Engineering research, for example, to predict defects in source code. In our research in this area, with data from open source projects as well as an industrial partner, we noticed several shortcomings of conventional data mining approaches for c…
Polysomnography (PSG) is the gold standard for diagnosing sleep obstructive apnea (OSA). It allows monitoring of breathing events throughout the night. The detection of these events is usually done by trained sleep experts. However, this task is tedious, highly time-consuming and subject to important inter-scorer varia…
A new mechanism reduces expert belief regret in online forecasting.
A contextual care protocol is used by a medical practitioner for patient healthcare, given the context or situation that the specified patient is in. This paper proposes a method to build an automated self-adapting protocol which can help make relevant, early decisions for effective healthcare delivery. The hybrid mode…
Tractograms are mathematical representations of the main paths of axons within the white matter of the brain, from diffusion MRI data. Such representations are in the form of polylines, called streamlines, and one streamline approximates the common path of tens of thousands of axons. The analysis of tractograms is a ta…
Overlap between treatment groups is required for non-parametric estimation of causal effects. If a subgroup of subjects always receives the same intervention, we cannot estimate the effect of intervention changes on that subgroup without further assumptions. When overlap does not hold globally, characterizing local reg…
One typical assumption in inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) is that human experts act to optimize the expected utility of a stochastic cost with a fixed distribution. This assumption deviates from actual human behaviors under ambiguity. Risk-sensitive inverse reinforcement learning (RS-IRL) bridges such gap by assum…
Mixtures-of-Experts models and their maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) via the EM algorithm have been thoroughly studied in the statistics and machine learning literature. They are subject of a growing investigation in the context of modeling with high-dimensional predictors with regularized MLE. We examine MoE with …
New method extracts cosmological information from dark matter halo catalogues using graph neural networks.
Recent explainability related studies have shown that state-of-the-art DNNs do not always adopt correct evidences to make decisions. It not only hampers their generalization but also makes them less likely to be trusted by end-users. In pursuit of developing more credible DNNs, in this paper we propose CREX, which enco…
We propose a heuristically modified FP-Tree for ontology learning from text. Unlike previous research, for concept extraction, we use a regular expression parser approach widely adopted in compiler construction, i.e., deterministic finite automata (DFA). Thus, the concepts are extracted from unstructured documents. For…