We introduce the notion of a stochastic probabilistic program and present a reference implementation of a probabilistic programming facility supporting specification of stochastic probabilistic programs and inference in them. Stochastic probabilistic programs allow straightforward specification and efficient inference …
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48 results for “Stochastic Programs”
We extend probabilistic programming to handle conditioning on marginal distributions.
problem Conditioning probabilistic programs on marginal distributions of observable variables.
method We define and implement stochastic conditioning, allowing inference in probabilistic programs conditioned on marginal distributions.
result We demonstrate the effectiveness of stochastic conditioning in various real-life scenarios.
We improve optimization for data with varying variance.
problem Optimizing data with varying variance.
method Generalized learning and optimization frameworks for data-driven optimization.
result Asymptotic and finite sample guarantees for stochastic programs.
New method solves nonseparable stochastic control problems.
problem Nonseparable and non-monotonic stochastic control problems.
method Scenario-decomposition solution framework using progressive hedging algorithm.
result Extends reach of stochastic optimal control.
Bayesian approach for policy search in stochastic domains.
problem Policy search in stochastic domains.
method Nested probabilistic programs, Lightweight Metropolis-Hastings (LMH) adaptation.
result Similar quality policies learned with simpler algorithm.
Probabilistic programs with mixed support (both continuous and discrete latent random variables) commonly appear in many probabilistic programming systems (PPSs). However, the existence of the discrete random variables prohibits many basic gradient-based inference engines, which makes the inference procedure on such mo…
A new method speeds up community detection in graphs.
problem Efficiently detecting communities in large graphs.
method Subsampled semidefinite programming for faster clustering.
result Statistical limits of sketching for community detection established.
Method solves complex optimization problems with high probability bounds.
problem Nonlinear equality constrained stochastic optimization problems.
method Step-search sequential quadratic programming method.
result High-probability bound on iteration complexity for first-order stationarity.
A Novel Approach in Solving Stochastic Generalized Linear Regression via Nonconvex Programmingstat.ML
Improves logistic regression performance with nonconvex programming.
problem Stochastic generalized linear regression with chance constraints.
method Nonconvex programming techniques, clustering, quantile estimation.
result Over 1 to 2 percent improvement in model performance.
In this paper, we introduce a new stochastic approximation (SA) type algorithm, namely the randomized stochastic gradient (RSG) method, for solving an important class of nonlinear (possibly nonconvex) stochastic programming (SP) problems. We establish the complexity of this method for computing an approximate stationar…
We present a new algorithm for approximate inference in probabilistic programs, based on a stochastic gradient for variational programs. This method is efficient without restrictions on the probabilistic program; it is particularly practical for distributions which are not analytically tractable, including highly struc…
Higher-Order Generalization Bounds: Learning Deep Probabilistic Programs via PAC-Bayes Objectivescs.LG
Unified framework for learning flexible probabilistic programs using DPP and PAC-Bayes bounds.
problem Learning and generalizing from complex probabilistic models.
method Unified DPP representation and PAC-Bayes bounds for stochastic programs.
result Improved performance and generalization prediction using flexible DPP model representations and learned complexity measures.
This research develops an evolutionary approach to discover non-Gaussian stochastic dynamical systems.
problem Discovering explicit governing equations of stochastic dynamical systems with Lévy noise from data.
method ESSR approach using genetic programming, sparse regression, and nonlocal Kramers-Moyal formulas.
result The approach effectively extracts non-Gaussian stochastic dynamical systems from sample path data.
The paper fits cash management models to data using stochastic and linear programming.
problem Cash flow probability distribution assumptions in cash management models are relaxed.
method Stochastic and linear programming to fit models to data.
result A small random sample of data is sufficient to fit bound-based models.
New method solves optimization problems with stochastic objectives and constraints.
problem Optimization problems with stochastic objectives and deterministic constraints.
method Trust-region interior-point stochastic sequential quadratic programming (TR-IP-SSQP) method.
result Global almost-sure convergence to first-order stationary points under standard assumptions.
The study finds no evidence of stochastic arbitrage opportunities in S&P 500 index options.
problem Identifying arbitrage opportunities in S&P 500 index options.
method Developed linear and mixed-integer linear programs to compute the maximum option premium.
result No evidence of systematic stochastic arbitrage opportunities in S&P 500 index options.
Adaptive learning method for stochastic programs with latent uncertainty.
problem Stochastic programming problems with implicitly decision-dependent uncertainty.
method Adaptive learning-based surrogate method integrating simulation and statistical estimates.
result Established non-asymptotic convergence rate analysis for enhanced stability and efficiency.
New method solves constrained stochastic optimization problems efficiently.
problem Online statistical inference of constrained stochastic nonlinear optimization problems.
method Stochastic Sequential Quadratic Programming (StoSQP) with iterative sketching solver.
result The rescaled primal-dual sequence converges to a mean-zero Gaussian distribution.
Bayesian optimization tackles non-convex, two-stage stochastic problems efficiently.
problem Solving non-convex, two-stage stochastic optimization problems with expensive, black-box evaluations.
method Knowledge-gradient-based acquisition function for joint optimization of first- and second-stage variables.
result Comparable and superior empirical results compared to alternatives.
New algorithm solves stochastic optimization problems with unknown gradients.
problem Solving nonlinear optimization problems with stochastic objectives and deterministic constraints.
method Adaptive SQP with differentiable exact augmented Lagrangian and stochastic line search.
result Global convergence established for both non-adaptive and adaptive SQP methods.
Develops new optimization techniques for decision-making under uncertainty.
problem Decision-making under uncertainty with complex cost functions and nested expectations.
method Introduces Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization (MCCO) and develops multilevel Monte Carlo techniques.
result New optimization techniques reduce scenario complexity from exponential to polynomial growth.
Neural model accelerates SDDP for stochastic optimization.
problem Exponential complexity of SDDP limits its applicability to low-dimensional problems.
method Trainable neural model maps problem instances to a low-dimensional piecewise linear value function.
result ν-SDDP significantly reduces problem solving cost without sacrificing solution quality.
This paper studies dynamic stochastic optimization problems parametrized by a random variable. Such problems arise in many applications in operations research and mathematical finance. We give sufficient conditions for the existence of solutions and the absence of a duality gap. Our proof uses extended dynamic programm…
The paper analyzes error propagation in dynamic programming for stochastic control and option pricing.
problem Error propagation in dynamic programming for stochastic control and option pricing.
method Formulated a general dynamic programming framework, used RKHSs for nonparametric regression, and Monte Carlo subsampling for estimating continuation value.
result Proposed a rigorous error decomposition and control mechanism for error propagation in dynamic programming.
Deep learning solves complex stochastic control with jumps.
problem Solving high-dimensional stochastic control tasks with jumps.
method Model-based approach using two neural networks, iteratively trained with objectives derived from the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in solving complex high-dimensional stochastic control tasks.
Guaranteed bounds for posterior inference in probabilistic programs.
problem Approximating the posterior distribution of probabilistic programs with provable correctness.
method Interval-based trace semantics, soundness and completeness proofs, weight-aware interval type system.
result Guaranteed bounds on the posterior distribution of probabilistic programs are computed and proven to be correct.
New algorithm solves complex stopping problems with robust optimization.
problem Solving complex stochastic optimal stopping problems.
method Simulation-based robust optimization with exact reformulation as a zero-one bilinear program.
result Developed polynomial-time heuristics and algorithms for practical solution.
New metric derived for robust optimization in stochastic control problems.
problem Non-parametric uncertainty in multiperiod stochastic control problems.
method Derived a new metric, adapted --Wasserstein distance, and used dynamic programming principle.
result Dynamic programming principle for DRO problems with semi-separable cost functions.
Scenario trees and policy selection for multistage stochastic programming using machine learningmath.OC
We propose a hybrid algorithmic strategy for complex stochastic optimization problems, which combines the use of scenario trees from multistage stochastic programming with machine learning techniques for learning a policy in the form of a statistical model, in the context of constrained vector-valued decisions. Such a …
In this work, we explore how probabilistic programs can be used to represent policies in sequential decision problems. In this formulation, a probabilistic program is a black-box stochastic simulator for both the problem domain and the agent. We relate classic policy gradient techniques to recently introduced black-box…
Portfolio Analysis Based on Markowitz Stochastic Dominance Criteria: A Behavioral Perspectiveq-fin.PM
The paper analyzes how behavioral investors make portfolio decisions using Markowitz Stochastic Dominance criteria.
problem Understanding how behavioral investors make portfolio decisions.
method Developed stochastic optimization problems and MILP models to capture subjective decision weights and probability weighting functions.
result The developed models can be used to formulate computationally tractable portfolio analysis problems.
This paper introduces the probabilistic module interface, which allows encapsulation of complex probabilistic models with latent variables alongside custom stochastic approximate inference machinery, and provides a platform-agnostic abstraction barrier separating the model internals from the host probabilistic inferenc…
New algorithm tackles stochastic optimization with inequality constraints.
problem Stochastic optimization with inequality constraints in various applications.
method Active-set stochastic sequential quadratic programming (StoSQP) with a differentiable exact augmented Lagrangian.
result Global convergence for any initialization, KKT residuals converge to zero almost surely.
The idea of computer vision as the Bayesian inverse problem to computer graphics has a long history and an appealing elegance, but it has proved difficult to directly implement. Instead, most vision tasks are approached via complex bottom-up processing pipelines. Here we show that it is possible to write short, simple …
New methods reduce bias in estimating optimality gaps for risk-averse stochastic programs.
problem Optimality gap estimation bias in risk-averse stochastic programs.
method Two independent samples, each estimating a different component of the optimality gap.
result Our method reduces bias in estimating optimality gaps for risk-averse problems.
The paper solves optimal control problems for stochastic delay equations.
problem Optimal control of stochastic delay differential equations.
method Rewriting the problem in an infinite-dimensional Hilbert space, using dynamic programming and viscosity solutions.
result Characterizes the value function as the unique viscosity solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation.
We study a stochastic game where one player tries to find a strategy such that the state process reaches a target of controlled-loss-type, no matter which action is chosen by the other player. We provide, in a general setup, a relaxed geometric dynamic programming principle for this problem and derive, for the case of …
Pyro is a probabilistic programming language built on Python as a platform for developing advanced probabilistic models in AI research. To scale to large datasets and high-dimensional models, Pyro uses stochastic variational inference algorithms and probability distributions built on top of PyTorch, a modern GPU-accele…
We introduce a novel numerical approach for a class of stochastic dynamic programs which arise as discretizations of backward stochastic differential equations or semi-linear partial differential equations. Solving such dynamic programs numerically requires the approximation of nested conditional expectations, i.e., it…
Optimizes distributions robustly with Sinkhorn distance.
problem Distributionally robust optimization with Wasserstein distance.
method Convex programming dual reformulation, stochastic mirror descent algorithm.
result Demonstrates superior performance in synthetic and real data.
New algorithms optimize without knowing problem parameters.
problem Optimizing large-scale problems without knowing key parameters.
method Combining mirror descent with dual averaging techniques.
result Converges without prior knowledge of problem parameters.
We propose a semidefinite programming (SDP) algorithm for community detection in the stochastic block model, a popular model for networks with latent community structure. We prove that our algorithm achieves exact recovery of the latent communities, up to the information-theoretic limits determined by Abbe and Sandon (…
Techniques for reducing the variance of gradient estimates used in stochastic programming algorithms for convex finite-sum problems have received a great deal of attention in recent years. By leveraging dissipativity theory from control, we provide a new perspective on two important variance-reduction algorithms: SVRG …
Data-driven Piecewise Affine Decision Rules for Stochastic Programming with Covariate Informationmath.OC
Paper proposes a new method for SP with covariates using PADR and ERM.
problem Stochastic programming with covariate information.
method Empirical risk minimization (ERM) with nonconvex piecewise affine decision rules (PADR).
result The method provides theoretical consistency and computational tractability for nonconvex SP problems.
This work presents the concept of kernel mean embedding and kernel probabilistic programming in the context of stochastic systems. We propose formulations to represent, compare, and propagate uncertainties for fairly general stochastic dynamics in a distribution-free manner. The new tools enjoy sound theory rooted in f…
Paper explores two methods for optimal portfolio selection in financial markets.
problem Optimal portfolio selection for financial markets with jumps.
method Maximum principle and dynamic programming approach.
result Relationship between two methods and their adjoint processes.
New algorithms bound treatment effects with unmeasured confounding.
problem Estimating causal effects when confounding is unmeasured.
method Formulate causal effects as objective functions in optimization, using stochastic methods and Monte Carlo.
result Efficient algorithms for bounded treatment effects in complex settings.
We introduce and demonstrate a new approach to inference in expressive probabilistic programming languages based on particle Markov chain Monte Carlo. Our approach is simple to implement and easy to parallelize. It applies to Turing-complete probabilistic programming languages and supports accurate inference in models …