Study optimal investment, consumption, and insurance for durable goods with stochastic depreciation risk.
problem Optimal investment, consumption, and insurance for an agent with durable goods facing stochastic depreciation risk.
method Homogeneous problem reduction to static optimisation, exploiting correlation between goods and asset prices, proving verification theorem.
result Existence and optimality of a constant-fraction strategy under explicit transversality conditions for different risk-aversion regimes.
New dynamic allocation methods for multi-armed bandit models.
problem Dynamic allocation problems in multi-armed bandit models.
method New types of dynamic allocation problems and proofs for Gittins index decomposition.
result New proofs for Gittins index decomposition and related results.
Generally accepted depreciation methods do not compute the intrinsic value of an asset, as they do not factor for the Time Value of Money, a key principle within financial theory. This is disadvantageous, as knowing the intrinsic value of an asset can assist with making effective purchase and sale decisions. By applyin…
Study uses high-frequency data to predict ruble depreciation during crisis.
problem Predicting ruble depreciation during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
method Uses intraday high-frequency data (google searches and implied volatility) to model exchange rate fluctuations.
result Implied volatility is more effective than attention in predicting ruble depreciation.
Tick-by-tick liquidity provision aims to maximize fees and reserves.
problem Maximizing fees and reserves in concentrated liquidity.
method Convex optimization for tick-level liquidity provision.
result Concentrating liquidity around current price is not always best.
The paper reveals the hidden costs of digitizing commodity money and proposes a new stable-coin system.
problem Depreciation of banknotes due to high logistics costs after digitization.
method Analyzing the functions of money from a logistics perspective and comparing commodity money to digital currency.
result There is no honest money that is both a store of value and has negligible logistics costs.
Pension benefits in rural China lead to cognitive decline among the elderly.
problem Cognitive decline in late adulthood among rural Chinese elderly.
method Examined the effects of a new pension scheme on cognitive performance.
result Pension benefits negatively impact cognitive functioning, particularly delayed recall.
Modeling pollution from competing firms using mean-field games.
problem Pollution regulation of competitive firms producing similar goods.
method Developed a mean-field game model with cap-and-trade regulation.
result Explicit solutions found through Riccati differential equations.
Optimal healthcare investment timing in a dynamic model with mortality risk.
problem Optimal timing of healthcare investment to reduce mortality risk.
method Dynamic framework, stochastic control, optimal stopping problem, dual transformation.
result Characterization of the optimal investment boundary and numerical solutions.
The study finds significant financial sector volatility and tail risk spillovers to real economy sectors.
problem Volatility and tail risk spillovers from financial to real economy sectors.
method New measure of tail risk spillover, empirical analysis of U.S. economy 2001-2011.
result Significant volatility and tail risk spillovers from financial to real economy sectors, especially during crises.
Current auto loans converge to super-prime credit despite remaining underwater.
problem Inefficient consumer behavior in auto loans leading to suboptimal credit risk.
method Large-sample statistical hypothesis test on transition matrix between risk bands.
result All current risk bands converge to super-prime credit, despite remaining underwater.
Since August 2000, the stock market in the USA as well as most other western markets have depreciated almost in synchrony according to complex patterns of drops and local rebounds. In \cite{SZ02QF}, we have proposed to describe this phenomenon using the concept of a log-periodic power law (LPPL) antibubble, characteriz…
Model shows how capital accumulation can lead to poverty traps and well-being states.
problem Capital accumulation and its effects on poverty and well-being.
method Stochastic Solow growth model with sigmoidal saving fraction and bimodal steady state distribution.
result Existence of poverty trap with fluctuation-driven transitions between poverty and well-being states.
National statistical systems are the enterprises tasked with collecting, validating and reporting societal attributes. These data serve many purposes - they allow governments to improve services, economic actors to traverse markets, and academics to assess social theories. National statistical systems vary in quality, …
The accumulation of individual fitness or wealth is modelled as a population game in which pairs of individuals are recurrently and randomly matched to play a game over a resource. In addition, all individuals have random access to a constant background resource, and their fitness or wealth depreciates over time. For b…
Locally adaptive interpretable regression improves linear regression's predictability.
problem Linear regression's predictability is limited; it lacks adaptability.
method Locally adaptive interpretable regression (LoAIR) uses neural networks to predict percentile of a Gaussian distribution for regression coefficients.
result LoAIR achieves comparable or better predictive performance than state-of-the-art baselines.
Cost-aware BO minimizes function evaluations with varying costs.
problem Optimization with varying evaluation costs in expensive functions.
method Cost Apportioned Bayesian Optimization (CArBO) combining initial and cost-cooled phases.
result CArBO finds better hyperparameter configurations with the same cost budget.
Study finds stock prices rarely appreciate during capital inflows but often appreciate during normal flows.
problem Understanding stock price behavior during capital inflows and outflows.
method Identified capital flow episodes using threshold and k-means clustering; detected stock index changepoints using PELT method; combined results over identified capital flows.
result Stock prices rarely appreciate during capital inflows but often appreciate during normal flows.
Model predicts climate change's impact on real estate prices.
problem Impact of climate transition on real estate prices.
method Modeling property valuation using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and carbon prices.
result Depreciation of inefficient real estate assets due to climate transition is quantifiable.
Model predicts stationary equilibrium in investment decisions of firms in fluctuating markets.
problem Investment decisions in fluctuating markets with varying volatility and commodity prices.
method Mean-field model with Gaussian productivity shocks and two-state Markov chain for macroeconomic events.
result Existence, uniqueness, and characterization of stationary mean-field equilibrium with barrier-type investment strategy.
Oil prices affect Russian banks' stability, with negative impacts from decreases.
problem The impact of international oil prices on Russian public banks' financial stability.
method Data from 17 Russian public banks (2008-2016), Pool Mean Group (PMG) estimator.
result An increase in international oil prices and price to book value ratio positively affects Russian public banks' stability in the long run, while negative shocks have the opposite effect.
CTS machines improve screen development in printing industries, reducing costs and increasing profitability.
problem Inefficient screen development process in heat transfer printing and labeling.
method Implementation of CTS (computer-to-screen) technology for screen development.
result Reduction in material and operational costs, leading to profitability.
Paper provides Edgeworth expansions for network moments, improving accuracy of sampling distributions.
problem Accurate descriptions of sampling distributions of network moment statistics.
method Edgeworth expansion applied to studentized network moment statistics.
result Higher-order accurate approximation to sampling CDF of network moment statistics.
This paper solves aggregation of Pareto optimal models by using Bayesian priors and weighted averaging.
problem How to rationally aggregate Pareto optimal models while preserving Pareto efficiency.
method Four logical steps: 1) Bayesian models, 2) Prior as preference ranking, 3) Consistent aggregation, 4) Weighted average of priors.
result All rational/consistent aggregation rules follow a generalized hierarchical Bayesian model.
Our study proposes a new currency system to protect wealth from over-issued fiat and stablecoins.
problem The over-issuance of fiat and stablecoins undermines the stability of currency purchasing power.
method We introduce a parallel monetary system based on redeemable self-decaying money (RSDM) to provide a stable currency alternative.
result A parallel monetary system including RSDM, domestic fiat, and major reserve currencies can safeguard wealth and prevent the reverse Gresham law.
Model of capital accumulation in a complex exchange space.
problem Capital accumulation dynamics in heterogeneous producer-consumer systems.
method Statistical field theory approach to analyze interactions and dynamics.
result Capital accumulation and agent position in the exchange space are correlated.
Paper corrects and expands stochastic Lie systems theory.
problem Stochastic Lie systems and their properties.
method Corrected stochastic Lie theorem, introduced new stochastic Lie systems.
result Stochastic Lie systems can differ significantly between Stratonovich and Itô approaches.
The study analyzes stochastic Lie systems and their applications in various models.
problem Analyzing stochastic differential equations on manifolds.
method Coalgebra method for Hamiltonian stochastic Lie systems.
result New examples of stochastic Lie systems and Hamiltonian stochastic Lie systems are analyzed.
sFML learns stochastic dynamical systems from data.
problem Learning unknown stochastic dynamical systems from measurement data.
method sFML extends FML for deterministic systems, using a stochastic flow map composed of deterministic and stochastic sub-maps.
result sFML constructs a stochastic evolution model approximating unknown stochastic systems.
Unified framework connects stochastic optimization to Bayesian inference.
problem Stochastic optimization algorithms and their theoretical underpinnings.
method Latent variational problem and Forward Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (FBSDE).
result Recovery of various adaptive stochastic gradient descent methods.
Develops mathematical framework for analyzing stochastic gradient algorithms.
problem Analyzing the dynamics of stochastic gradient algorithms.
method Stochastic modified equations (SME) framework to approximate stochastic gradient algorithms as stochastic differential equations.
result Proves that the approximation leads to precise results on SGD, momentum SGD, and Nesterov's accelerated gradient method.
The existence of stationary Markov perfect equilibria in stochastic games is shown under a general condition called "(decomposable) coarser transition kernels". This result covers various earlier existence results on correlated equilibria, noisy stochastic games, stochastic games with finite actions and state-independe…
Bayesian neural networks can be partially stochastic without losing predictive power.
problem The necessity of fully stochastic parameters in Bayesian neural networks.
method Theoretical and empirical investigation of partially stochastic networks compared to fully stochastic ones.
result Expressive predictive distributions require only small amounts of stochasticity, and partially stochastic networks can match or outperform fully stochastic networks.
Stochastic approximation algorithms show exponential progress bounds.
problem Analyzing the convergence of stochastic approximation algorithms.
method Developed geometric ergodicity proofs to establish exponential concentration bounds.
result Proved faster convergence rates for specific algorithms.
Stochastic gradient methods can converge in expectation under heavy-tailed noise.
problem Convergence of stochastic gradient methods under heavy-tailed noise.
method Comprehensive study of stochastic optimization under heavy-tailed noise for extsfSGD, extsfSMD, extsfASMD, extsfSGDM in convex and nonconvex optimization. result Established in-expectation convergence results for various stochastic gradient methods.
Study on stochastic mean curvature flow on networks using Ito calculus.
problem Understanding the dynamics of network structures under random influences.
method Application of Ito calculus to derive a stochastic differential equation (SDE) for network edges.
result New insights into the stability, long-term behavior, and pattern formation of complex networks under stochastic influences.
New method reveals insights about stochastic optimization methods using modified equations.
problem Understanding the qualitative behavior of stochastic optimization algorithms.
method Developed a class of stochastic differential equations to approximate the dynamics of stochastic optimization methods.
result Mean-square stability of the modified equation provides qualitative insights about stochastic coordinate descent.
New method uses backward SDEs for deep learning uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method Probabilistic machine learning with stochastic neural networks and stochastic optimal control.
result Effectiveness validated through numerical experiments.
We extend Dupire's formula for stochastic interest rates and local volatility.
problem Deriving formulas for stochastic interest rates and local volatility.
method Generalizations of Dupire's formula for stochastic drift and local volatility.
result Validated the limits of the generalized Dupire formulae for specific cases.
The article reviews how to set stochastic volatility model parameters.
problem Choosing parameters for stochastic volatility models.
method Examines existing literature on various methods.
result Different approaches to setting stochastic volatility parameters.
This paper studies a non-stochastic version of Fernholz's stochastic portfolio theory for a simple model of stock markets with continuous price paths. It establishes non-stochastic versions of the most basic results of stochastic portfolio theory and discusses connections with Stroock-Varadhan martingales.
New theorem handles stochastic Volterra semimartingales.
problem Classic Fubini theorem restrictions for Volterra semimartingales.
method Introduced measure-valued stochastic integration.
result Proved new stochastic Fubini theorem.
Proposes a new method combining Reservoir Computing and Normalizing Flow for predicting stochastic dynamical systems.
problem Predicting and capturing long-term behaviors of stochastic dynamical systems.
method Data-driven framework combining Reservoir Computing and Normalizing Flow, integrating error modeling and both approaches virtues.
result Successfully predicts the long-term evolution of stochastic dynamical systems and replicates dynamical behaviors.
Proposes new Monte Carlo methods for calibrating local volatility models with stochastic components.
problem Calibrating local volatility models with stochastic drift and diffusion.
method Developed Monte Carlo algorithms for three models: local volatility with stochastic interest rates, stochastic local volatility with deterministic interest rates, and stochastic local volatility with stochastic interest rates.
result Conditions for the existence of local volatility given European option prices, stochastic interest rate model parameters, and correlations.
We introduce a stochastic model for noisy vector fields on manifolds.
problem Noisy vector fields violate the assumption of parallel transport in stochastic analysis.
method We define a stochastic Lie bracket that induces torsion and analyze its consequences.
result The stochastic Lie bracket induces torsion in expectation.
New dynamics for SGD in small learning rate regime.
problem Improving stochastic gradient descent in small learning rate regime.
method Introducing stochastic modified flows and distribution dependent stochastic modified flows.
result Captures fluctuating dynamics of SGD in small learning rate - infinite width scaling regime.
Survey of methods for solving smooth stochastic variational inequalities.
problem Solving smooth (strongly) monotone stochastic variational inequalities.
method Deterministic foundation, general stochastic formulation, finite sum setup, recent advances.
result Review of various methods for solving smooth stochastic variational inequalities.
Study exchange option pricing with stochastic volatility and correlation.
problem Pricing exchange options under stochastic volatility and correlation.
method Approximation using a closed-form solution with Taylor expansion.
result Numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.