New method identifies diffusion sources on networks with statistical confidence.
problem Identifying sources of diffusion on networks without restrictive assumptions.
method Statistical framework and confidence set inference approach based on hypothesis testing.
result Efficiently produces a small subset of nodes covering the source node with any confidence level.
The paper explores when linear system identification is hard or easy, especially for under-actuated systems.
problem Statistical hardness of learning linear systems, especially under-actuated or under-excited systems.
method Using tools from minimax theory and recent statistical tools for finite sample analysis of system identification.
result The controllability index of linear systems affects the sample complexity of identification, making some systems hard to learn.
Investigation of the market graph attracts a growing attention in market network analysis. One of the important problem connected with market graph is to identify it from observations. Traditional way for the market graph identification is to use a simple procedure based on statistical estimations of Pearson correlatio…
The paper offers error bounds for quantized dynamical models.
problem Accuracy of dynamical models from dependent data sequences.
method Developed uniform error bounds for quantized models and imperfect optimization algorithms.
result Unified bounds for slow and fast rates, scaling with model encoding bits.
New algorithms for best arm identification in bandits robust to misspecified parameters.
problem Inconsistent learning performance of traditional MAB algorithms when parameters are misspecified.
method Proposes two classes of asymptotically near-optimal algorithms for statistically robust MAB under fixed-budget pure exploration.
result Establishes fundamental performance limits and proposes algorithms that are asymptotically near-optimal.
This chapter covers methods for identifying and inferring graph topologies.
problem Identifying and inferring graph topologies from multidimensional relational data.
method Overview of methods including correlation metrics, covariance selection, kernels, structural equations, and vector autoregressions.
result Supports both batch and online learning with convergence guarantees and leverages high-order statistical information.
End-to-end algorithm for controlling bilinear systems with probabilistic noise.
problem Controlling bilinear systems with noisy data.
method Proposes an end-to-end algorithm using statistical learning theory and robust controller design.
result Derived finite sample identification error bounds and structurally suitable for control.
Most users of online services have unique behavioral or usage patterns. These behavioral patterns can be exploited to identify and track users by using only the observed patterns in the behavior. We study the task of identifying users from statistics of their behavioral patterns. Specifically, we focus on the setting i…
New algorithm STCV improves sparse model discovery from normalised data.
problem Distortion of sparse model discovery due to data scaling.
method STCV, a novel sparse regression algorithm robust to data scaling.
result STCV outperforms standard methods on normalised, noisy datasets.
Survey on statistical learning theory for control, focusing on linear systems.
problem Applying machine learning techniques to control systems, especially linear ones.
method Adapting tools from modern high-dimensional statistics and learning theory.
result Recent advances in statistical learning theory for control, particularly for linear systems.
New framework recovers reward and rationality parameters from game behavior.
problem Statistical ambiguity in identifying reward and rationality parameters in competitive games.
method Blind Inverse Game Theory (Blind-IGT) using entropy-regularized Quantal Response Equilibrium and Normalized Least Squares (NLS) estimator.
result Optimal convergence rate of O(N−1/2) for joint parameter recovery. Identification and scoring functions are statistical tools to assess the calibration and the relative performance of risk measure estimates, e.g., in backtesting. A risk measures is called identifiable (elicitable) it it admits a strict identification function (strictly consistent scoring function). We consider measure…
High throughput screening of compounds (chemicals) is an essential part of drug discovery [7], involving thousands to millions of compounds, with the purpose of identifying candidate hits. Most statistical tools, including the industry standard B-score method, work on individual compound plates and do not exploit cross…
ADSGD method speeds up model identification in sparse optimization.
problem Implicit model identification in sparse optimization problems.
method Accelerated Doubly Stochastic Gradient Method (ADSGD) for faster explicit model identification.
result ADSGD achieves faster explicit model identification and improved algorithm efficiency.
We study the problem of identifying the policy space of a learning agent, having access to a set of demonstrations generated by its optimal policy. We introduce an approach based on statistical testing to identify the set of policy parameters the agent can control, within a larger parametric policy space. After present…
Demand functions for goods are generally cyclical in nature with characteristics such as trend or stochasticity. Most existing demand forecasting techniques in literature are designed to manage and forecast this type of demand functions. However, if the demand function is lumpy in nature, then the general demand foreca…
This study examines whether PCA can effectively identify nitrogen pollution sources in rivers.
problem Identifying pollution sources in rivers for effective environmental management.
method Principal Component Analysis and its modifications, along with Independent Component Analysis and Factor Analysis, are applied to nitrogen pollution source identification.
result PCA and related techniques can be powerful tools for uncovering nitrogen pollution sources in rivers.
New method improves neural network robustness by identifying functions rather than parameters.
problem Neural networks' lack of robustness to distribution shifts.
method Identify the function represented by quadratic networks, not their parameters.
result Obtain robust generalization bounds for neural networks.
The paper validates a classifier for identifying intraday regime shifts in MNQ futures.
problem Developing reliable trading signals from intraday regime shifts in MNQ futures.
method Constructed a composite day-classification system using three observable conditions.
result Classifier-positive days exhibit distinct intraday behavior but fail to generate profitable trading signals.
The paper tackles long-context linear system identification with improved sample complexity bounds.
problem Identifying dynamical systems with long dependencies over fixed context windows.
method Established sample complexity bounds for systems with linear dependencies over a context window of length p.
result The learning process is not hindered by slow mixing properties in extended context windows.
New method reduces bias in estimating causal effects from discretized variables.
problem Bias in estimating causal effects from discretized continuous variables.
method Proposes a bias-reduced functional that evaluates outcome regression at within-bin conditional means.
result Demonstrates substantial bias reduction and near-nominal confidence interval coverage.
TSCI estimates treatment effects using machine learning and data-adaptive methods for invalid instruments.
problem Estimating treatment effects with invalid instruments.
method Two-stage algorithm: first stage uses machine learning for nonlinearities, second stage selects and projects out instrument violations.
result Effective treatment effect estimation even with invalid instruments.
Gaussian processes are used in machine learning to learn input-output mappings from observed data. Gaussian process regression is based on imposing a Gaussian process prior on the unknown regressor function and statistically conditioning it on the observed data. In system identification, Gaussian processes are used to …
Method provides statistical guarantees for identifying subgroups in ML studies.
problem Bias and noise in estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE).
method Develops uniform confidence bands (GATES) for estimating group average treatment effects (GATEs).
result Identifies subgroups with statistical guarantees, regardless of effect size.
New methods for identifying and estimating missing data under complex mechanisms.
problem Missing data mechanisms dependent on missing values themselves.
method Developed a new MNAR model and proposed semiparametric estimation methods.
result Established sufficient conditions for identifying complete-data distribution and missingness mechanism.
New algorithm optimizes linear system estimation from single trajectory.
problem Estimating LTI systems from a single trajectory.
method SGD with Reverse Experience Replay (SGD−RER) result Optimal guarantees for parameter and prediction errors.
Learning from examples is one of the key problems in science and engineering. It deals with function reconstruction from a finite set of direct and noisy samples. Regularization in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) is widely used to solve this task and includes powerful estimators such as regularization network…
The paper tackles system identification via Hankel nuclear norm regularization, improving estimation rates and singular value gaps.
problem Identifying low-order linear systems from limited data.
method Hankel nuclear norm regularization to encourage low-rankness of the Hankel matrix.
result Hankel regularization enables optimal system recovery with fewer observations and better estimation rates.
Study quantile multi-armed bandits for identifying the best arm with a specified quantile level.
problem Identifying the arm with the highest quantile in multi-armed bandits with private rewards.
method Proposed a (non-private) and differentially private successive elimination algorithms for best-arm identification.
result The proposed algorithms are essentially optimal for quantile bandit problems, with finite sample complexity even for distributions with infinite support-size.
Active learning method estimates nonlinear systems efficiently.
problem Identifying nonlinear dynamical systems with continuous states and actions.
method Repeating three steps: trajectory planning, tracking, and re-estimation.
result Estimates nonlinear dynamical systems at a parametric rate.
We give a new algorithm for best arm identification in linearly parameterised bandits in the fixed confidence setting. The algorithm generalises the well-known LUCB algorithm of Kalyanakrishnan et al. (2012) by playing an arm which minimises a suitable notion of geometric overlap of the statistical confidence set for t…
In this paper, we analyze the finite sample complexity of stochastic system identification using modern tools from machine learning and statistics. An unknown discrete-time linear system evolves over time under Gaussian noise without external inputs. The objective is to recover the system parameters as well as the Kalm…
Raising statistical hurdles may not be justified due to data bias.
problem Data bias leads to unobserved results that weaken identification of revised hurdles.
method Theoretical and empirical analysis of statistical hurdles and data bias.
result Statistics targeting only published findings can be strongly identified.
Paper develops a novel approach to identify clusters of features in multivariate extremes.
problem Understanding the complex structure of multivariate extremes in various fields.
method Optimization-based approach to assess the dependence structure of extremes.
result Estimating clusters of features that best capture the support of extremes.
Machine learning algorithms typically perform optimization over a class of non-convex functions. In this work, we provide bounds on the fundamental hardness of identifying the global minimizer of a non convex function. Specifically, we design a family of parametrized non-convex functions and employ statistical lower bo…
In processing and manufacturing industries, there has been a large push to produce higher quality products and ensure maximum efficiency of processes. This requires approaches to effectively detect and resolve disturbances to ensure optimal operations. While the control system can compensate for many types of disturban…
Paper introduces Prob-SSI for robust OMA in noisy data.
problem Challenges in estimating modal parameters from noisy data.
method Probabilistic formulation of SSI, robust Prob-SSI algorithm.
result Robust Prob-SSI outperforms conventional SSI in corrupted data.
Regularization and Bayesian methods for system identification have been repopularized in the recent years, and proved to be competitive w.r.t. classical parametric approaches. In this paper we shall make an attempt to illustrate how the use of regularization in system identification has evolved over the years, starting…
The paper explores how complex models can improve system identification beyond traditional limits.
problem Balancing model richness and spurious learning in system identification.
method Investigates the double-descent phenomenon in the context of dynamic systems.
result Complex models can improve system identification performance beyond the point of interpolation.
The paper proposes a method to identify power system oscillation modes using blind source separation.
problem Accurately identifying oscillation modes in power systems with renewable energy sources.
method A high-order blind source identification (HOBI) algorithm based on copula statistic combined with Hilbert transform and iteration procedure.
result The method can identify all oscillation modes and model order from a single channel of observation signals, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
Neural network solves inverse problem in multiscale mechanics.
problem Identifying elastic properties of random materials.
method Artificial neural networks trained on processed databases.
result Robust identification method validated with synthetic and real data.
New method for valid and exact statistical inference of multi-dimensional change-points.
problem Statistical inference of change-points in multi-dimensional sequences.
method Proposes a method to guarantee the statistical reliability of both location and components of detected changes.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the method in genomic abnormality identification and human behavior analysis.
Bayesian method improves forecasting of nonseparable Hamiltonian systems with noise.
problem Forecasting nonseparable Hamiltonian systems with multiplicative noise.
method Bayesian approach using deep learning and reduced-order modeling.
result Bayesian method yields up to 724 times improvement in forecasting accuracy.
New method identifies distribution grid outages using smart meter data.
problem Outages in urban distribution grids due to DERs and smart meters' last gasp signals.
method Data-driven approach based on stochastic time series analysis and maximum likelihood estimation.
result Proves optimal performance in identifying distribution grid outages using smart meter data.
Optimal design for multinomial logit models improves assortment selection efficiency.
problem Optimal experimental design for multinomial logit models with feedback.
method Two complementary approaches: MILP reformulation and lifted design.
result Achieves statistical efficiency and scalability for MNL bandits.
Online algorithms for identifying river pollution sources.
problem Real-time estimation of river pollution sources from downstream data.
method Gradient-based online learning algorithms with adaptive step sizes and escaping from saddle points module.
result High estimation accuracy in three dimensions, superior to existing methods.
This paper studies active learning in the context of robust statistics. Specifically, we propose a variant of the Best Arm Identification problem for \emph{contaminated bandits}, where each arm pull has probability ε of generating a sample from an arbitrary contamination distribution instead of the true und…
In this paper, we study the system identification problem for sparse linear time-invariant systems. We propose a sparsity promoting block-regularized estimator to identify the dynamics of the system with only a limited number of input-state data samples. We characterize the properties of this estimator under high-dimen…