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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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59118177236 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Statistical Assurance

The paper optimizes exceptions in a statistical production system using machine learning.

problem Lack of curated and labeled training data for machine learning in data quality assurance.
method Explainable supervised machine learning to identify and prioritize exceptions.
result Improvement in the quality and efficiency of exceptions generated and authenticated by users.

As technology become more advanced, those who design, use and are otherwise affected by it want to know that it will perform correctly, and understand why it does what it does, and how to use it appropriately. In essence they want to be able to trust the systems that are being designed. In this survey we present assura…

2017-08-01abs ↗pdf ↗

People who design, use, and are affected by autonomous artificially intelligent agents want to be able to \emph{trust} such agents -- that is, to know that these agents will perform correctly, to understand the reasoning behind their actions, and to know how to use them appropriately. Many techniques have been devised …

2017-11-08abs ↗pdf ↗

GRAND ensures node-level differential privacy for network data.

problem Lack of node-level differential privacy for network data.
method Proposes GRAND, the first mechanism for releasing networks with node-level differential privacy and preserving structural properties.
result GRAND releases networks while ensuring node-level differential privacy and preserving structural properties.

Paper proposes a sequential statistical test for comparing imitation learning policies with near-optimal stopping.

problem Challenges in rigorously comparing imitation learning policies due to small sample sizes and potential p-hacking.
method Sequential statistical test that adapts the number of trials based on intermediate results, achieving near-optimal stopping.
result Reduces the number of evaluation trials by up to 32% compared to state-of-the-art baselines, saving significant time and effort.

The paper designs neural networks with assurance for controlling nonlinear systems.

problem Designing neural networks with assurance for nonlinear system control.
method Bounding the number of affine functions needed for a CPWA function, connecting it to a TLL NN architecture.
result The TLL NN architecture is parameterized by the number of affine functions in the CPWA function it realizes.

In recent years, car makers and tech companies have been racing towards self driving cars. It seems that the main parameter in this race is who will have the first car on the road. The goal of this paper is to add to the equation two additional crucial parameters. The first is standardization of safety assurance --- wh…

2017-08-21abs ↗pdf ↗

We provide sufficient conditions assuring that a suitably decorated 2-polyhedron can be thickened to a compact 4-dimensional Stein domain. We also study a class of flat polyhedra in 4-manifolds and find conditions assuring that they admit Stein, compact neighborhoods. We base our calculations on Turaev's shadows suitab…

2005-04-19abs ↗pdf ↗

The study models life insurance policy cancellations using statistical and machine learning methods.

problem Forecasting individual contract cancellations in life insurance policies.
method Statistical and machine learning methods applied to data from private pension and endowment policies.
result Identified key features affecting contract cancellations.

New method improves local precipitation predictions using video diffusion.

problem Limited high-resolution local precipitation predictions due to computational costs.
method Extends video diffusion models to capture conditional distribution of high-resolution patterns.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in CRPS, MSE, and precipitation distribution.

Two novel models predict bus travel times with uncertainty, improving connection assurance.

problem Improving bus connection assurance by handling travel time uncertainty.
method Two novel approaches: Deep Quantile Regression (DQR) and Bayesian Recurrent Neural Networks (BRNN).
result DQR model performs best for 80%, 90%, and 95% prediction intervals, with small underestimation.

Given a properly embedded graph Gamma in a ball B and a punctured sphere Sigma properly embedded in B - Gamma, we examine the conditions on Gamma that are necessary to assure that Sigma is boundary parallel.

2000-05-19abs ↗pdf ↗

This study improves audit sampling by using sequential procedures with statistical guarantees.

problem Improving audit efficiency and reliability with statistical methods.
method Formulated as a sequential testing problem, defining null and alternative hypotheses, stopping and decision rules, and exact boundary conditions.
result Exact design yields ex ante control of decision error probabilities, and simulation-based implementation approximates this design.

New framework uses OR to ensure AI systems make safe decisions.

problem Ensuring generative AI systems make safe decisions as they gain autonomy.
method Developed a conceptual framework combining flow-based models and adversarial robustness.
result Increased autonomy requires new OR approaches for feasibility, robustness, and stress testing.

We present a simple remark that assures that the invariant theory of certain real Lie groups coincides with that of the underlying affine, real algebraic groups. In particular, this result applies to the non-compact orthogonal or symplectic Lie groups.

2017-11-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Let (M,ω,J,g)(M,ω,J,g) be a non-compact almost Kähler manifold. In this paper we provide various criteria that assure that ωkω^k induces a non trivial class in the reduced LpL^p maximal/minimal cohomology of (M,g)(M,g). Furthermore in the last part we explore some topological applications of our results.

2018-11-29abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper introduces modal epistemic tools for risk management.

problem Identifying and certifying risk claims when institutions lack the necessary epistemic stance.
method Develops crisp and fuzzy modal semantics for assurance and working commitment, distinguishing between object-level risk claims and meta-level epistemic diagnostics.
result Risk governance should model evidential incompleteness and failures of escalation, not just hazards and losses.

Proposes real-time risk monitoring for machine learning systems under unknown shifts.

problem Dynamic distribution shifts challenge real-world machine learning systems' risk assurances.
method Sequential hypothesis testing with 'testing by betting' to detect risk violations.
result Effective real-time risk monitoring under various unknown shifts.

A new method enhances signal recovery with FDR control.

problem Challenging signal recovery in compressive sensing.
method Knockoff-guided compressive sensing framework with FDR control.
result Guaranteed FDR control leads to more accurate signal reconstruction.

The paper finds sign-changing solutions for a specific type of elliptic equation.

problem Existence of sign-changing solutions for a Yamabe type equation.
method Investigates a critical elliptic equation with a Yamabe type operator on a compact manifold with boundary.
result Existence of sign-changing solutions assured under certain geometric conditions.

RAGuard improves safety in LLMs for offshore wind maintenance.

problem Conventional LLMs fail with specialised or unexpected scenarios in offshore wind maintenance.
method Integrates safety-critical documents alongside technical manuals in RAG framework.
result RAGuard increases safety recall from almost 0% to over 50% while maintaining technical recall above 60%.

Let GG be a compact connected Lie group and let H be a subgroup fixed by an involution. A classical result assures that the action of the complex reductive group HCH_C on the flag variety FF of GG admits a finite number of orbits. In this article we propose a formula for the branching coefficients of the symmetric p…

2018-06-20abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce a novel Deep Learning framework, which quantitatively estimates image segmentation quality without the need for human inspection or labeling. We refer to this method as a Quality Assurance Network -- QANet. Specifically, given an image and a `proposed' corresponding segmentation, obtained by any method inc…

2019-04-09abs ↗pdf ↗

This lecture is devoted to review some of the main properties of multisymplectic geometry. In particular, after reminding the standard definition of multisymplectic manifold, we introduce its characteristic submanifolds, the canonical models, and other relevant kinds of multisymplectic manifolds, such as those where th…

2018-07-31abs ↗pdf ↗

Stablecoins promise to bridge fiat currencies with the world of cryptocurrencies. They provide a way for users to take advantage of the benefits of digital currencies, such as ability to transfer assets over the internet, provide assurance on minting schedules and scarcity, and enable new asset classes, while also part…

2019-09-18abs ↗pdf ↗

A new framework uses deep reinforcement learning to improve aircraft separation in busy airspace.

problem Improving aircraft separation in high-density, dynamic airspace constrained by human controllers.
method Proximal Policy Optimization with an attention network for distributed vehicle autonomy.
result The framework significantly reduces offline training time and increases performance.

SAFER improves personalized treatment recommendations for dynamic clinical contexts.

problem Personalized treatment optimization in evolving clinical contexts with safety concerns.
method Integrates structured EHR and clinical notes, uses conformal prediction for safe recommendations.
result SAFER outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in recommendation metrics and mortality rates.

Practitioners sometimes suggest to use a combination of Sobol sequences and orthonormal polynomials when applying an LSMC algorithm for evaluation of option prices or in the context of risk capital calculation under the Solvency II regime. In this paper, we give a theoretical justification why good implementations of a…

2018-11-20abs ↗pdf ↗

The article presents a general discrete time dividend valuation model when the dividend growth rate is a general continuous variable. The main assumption is that the dividend growth rate follows a discrete time semi-Markov chain with measurable space. The paper furnishes sufficient conditions that assure finiteness of …

2016-05-09abs ↗pdf ↗

For n >1, if the Seifert form of a knotted 2n-1 sphere K in S^{2n+1} has a metabolizer, then the knot is slice. Casson and Gordon proved that this is false in dimension three (n = 1). However, in the three dimensional case it is true that if the metabolizer has a basis represented by a strongly slice link then K is sli…

2000-07-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Enhances robustness for time series classification using self-ensemble method.

problem Limited adversarial robustness in time series classification.
method Proposes a self-ensemble method to improve Randomized Smoothing's robustness certification.
result Demonstrates superior robustness compared to baseline approaches.