A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We consider off-policy policy evaluation when the trajectory data are generated by multiple behavior policies. Recent work has shown the key role played by the state or state-action stationary distribution corrections in the infinite horizon context for off-policy policy evaluation. We propose estimated mixture policy …
Using the formalism of Lyapunov potential function it is shown that the stability principles for biomass in the ecosystem and for employment in economics are mathematically similar. The ecosystem is found to have a stable and an unstable stationary state with high (forest) and low (grasslands) biomass, respectively. In…
Enhances time-series regression trees with latent factors for robust financial analysis.
problem Handling predictors with measurement error, trends, seasonality, and missing data.
method Integrates latent stationary factors extracted via state-space methods into time-series regression trees.
result Factor-augmented trees provide a reliable approach for macro-finance problems, exemplified by the lead-lag effect between equity volatility and the business cycle.
We characterize stationary solutions to McKean-Vlasov equations on the circle.
problem Stationary solutions of McKean-Vlasov equations on the circle.
method Exact equivalence to an infinite-dimensional quadratic system of equations over Fourier coefficients, leading to explicit characterization of stationary states.
result Analytic expressions for the emergence, form, and shape of bifurcations involving multiple Fourier modes, and connections with discontinuous phase transitions.
We combine geometric data analysis and stochastic modeling to describe the collective dynamics of complex systems. As an example we apply this approach to financial data and focus on the non-stationarity of the market correlation structure. We identify the dominating variable and extract its explicit stochastic model. …
In this paper, we consider a simple kinetic model of economy involving both exchanges between agents and speculative trading. We show that the kinetic model admits non trivial quasi-stationary states with power law tails of Pareto type. In order to do this we consider a suitable asymptotic limit of the model yielding a…
The state space (SS) representation of Gaussian processes (GP) has recently gained a lot of interest. The main reason is that it allows to compute GPs based inferences in O(n), where n is the number of observations. This implementation makes GPs suitable for Big Data. For this reason, it is important to provide a SS …
Building on previous results on the quadratic helicity in magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) we investigate particular minimum helicity states. Those are eigenfunctions of the curl operator and are shown to constitute solutions of the quasi-stationary incompressible ideal MHD equations. We then show that these states have inde…
The understanding of complex systems has become a central issue because complex systems exist in a wide range of scientific disciplines. Time series are typical experimental results we have about complex systems. In the analysis of such time series, stationary situations have been extensively studied and correlations h…
Natural spatiotemporal processes can be highly non-stationary in many ways, e.g. the low-level non-stationarity such as spatial correlations or temporal dependencies of local pixel values; and the high-level variations such as the accumulation, deformation or dissipation of radar echoes in precipitation forecasting. Fr…
The notion of the stationary equilibrium ensemble has played a central role in statistical mechanics. In machine learning as well, training serves as generalized equilibration that drives the probability distribution of model parameters toward stationarity. Here, we derive stationary fluctuation-dissipation relations t…
In this paper we study several aspects of the geometry of conformally stationary Lorentz manifolds, and particularly of GRW spaces, due to the presence of a closed conformal vector field. More precisely, we begin by extending to these spaces a result of J. Simons on the minimality of cones in Euclidean space, and apply…