Develops state-space deep Gaussian processes for irregular signals.
problem Solving deep Gaussian process regression problems for irregular signals/functions.
method Represent DGPs as SDEs, solve using state-space filtering and smoothing methods.
result Rich class of priors compatible with irregular signals/functions.
A new method learns state and proposal dynamics in state-space models using neural networks.
problem Inference in non-linear state-space models.
method StateMixNN method using neural networks for proposal and transition distributions.
result Significantly improved recovery of hidden state, especially in highly non-linear scenarios.
A new method for state space partitioning in block particle filtering reduces bias and variance.
problem Overcoming the curse of dimensionality in non-linear, non-Gaussian state space estimation.
method Formulates state space partitioning as a clustering problem and uses spectral clustering with constraints.
result The proposed method effectively groups correlated state variables into smaller blocks, reducing bias and variance.
The paper analyzes a recursive ML estimation method for non-linear state-space models.
problem Estimating maxima of the log-likelihood function in non-linear state-space models.
method Recursive maximum likelihood estimation using particle approximation to the optimal filter derivative.
result The algorithm accurately estimates maxima of the log-likelihood when the number of particles is sufficiently large.
Improved state estimation in high-dimensional models using Zig-Zag Sampler.
problem Weight degeneracy in particle filtering methods for high-dimensional state space models.
method Discrete Zig-Zag Sampler applied within the Composite MH Kernel of SMCMC framework.
result Improves estimation accuracy and increases acceptance ratio in high-dimensional state estimation.
DVBF learns state space models from raw data without supervision.
problem Unsupervised learning of latent Markovian state space models from raw data.
method Stochastic Gradient Variational Bayes for variational inference.
result DVBF enables realistic long-term prediction and improves latent embedding information content.
Efficient GP models with non-Gaussian likelihoods using state space methods.
problem Modeling non-Gaussian likelihoods in Gaussian Process (GP) regression.
method State space formulation for efficient GP models, combining LA, VB, ADF, and EP schemes.
result Efficient inference methods for non-Gaussian likelihoods in GP models.
Robust Kalman filtering method for outlier detection.
problem Outliers and misspecified measurement models in state-space models.
method Combines generalised Bayesian inference with Kalman filters for robustness and efficiency.
result Matches or outperforms other robust filtering methods at lower computational cost.
IBPF algorithm tackles high-dimensional parameter learning for complex systems.
problem Learning high-dimensional parameters in complex, partially observed, and nonlinear systems.
method Iterated Block Particle Filter (IBPF) for graphical state space models.
result IBPF algorithm consistently beats the curse of dimensionality across various experiments.
Generative Bayesian Filtering improves inference in complex models without explicit density evaluations.
problem Performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models.
method Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) extends GBC to dynamic settings using deep neural networks for recursive posterior inference. Generative-Gibbs sampler bypasses density evaluations for parameter learning.
result GBF significantly outperforms likelihood-free approaches in accuracy and robustness for intractable state-space models.
Bayesian algorithm filters Gaussian mixtures efficiently.
problem State-space systems with Gaussian mixtures.
method Gaussian mixture reduction and square-root implementation.
result Efficient state estimation for non-linear systems.
A new variational method for SSMs improves inference efficiency.
problem Hard variational inference for state space models.
method Proposes variational marginal particle filter (VMPF) based on Rao-Blackwellization.
result VMPF provides tighter variational bounds and sometimes benefits from unbiased reparameterization.
Graph Kalman filters adapt classical filters to graph data.
problem Adapting classical Kalman filters to graph data.
method Generalizes Kalman filters to attributed graphs, learning state-transition and readout functions end-to-end.
result Adapted Kalman filters can predict graph outputs.
A new Fourier model improves ODE prediction.
problem Improving the accuracy of ODE solutions, especially for periodic functions.
method Constructing a Fourier state space model and a hybrid model combining Taylor and Fourier methods.
result The hybrid model can predict ODE solutions more accurately, especially for periodic functions.
Particle MCMC is a class of algorithms that can be used to analyse state-space models. They use MCMC moves to update the parameters of the models, and particle filters to propose values for the path of the state-space model. Currently the default is to use random walk Metropolis to update the parameter values. We show …
Online learning improves state estimation of nonlinear systems.
problem Online learning of nonlinear state dynamics in Gaussian state space models.
method Stochastic variational sparse Gaussian process embedded in a particle filter framework, with model updating using stochastic gradient descent.
result State estimation performance significantly improves with online learning of state dynamics.
A new particle filter avoids resampling to improve state estimation in high dimensions.
problem Particle deprivation in high-dimensional state spaces.
method A resampling-free particle filter designed to mitigate particle deprivation.
result The filter offers a near-accurate representation of the posterior distribution in high-dimensional contexts.
Kernel Bayesian inference with faster regularization for state-space filtering.
problem Nonlinear state-space filtering problems.
method Posterior regularization framework based on RKHS embedding.
result Faster and comparable performance to squared regularization, with consistency analysis.
Paper introduces IO-NPF for efficient Bayesian experimental design.
problem Efficient Bayesian experimental design in non-exchangeable settings.
method Inside-Out Nested Particle Filter (IO-NPF) for non-Markovian state-space models.
result IO-NPF achieves O(T2) computational complexity, improving efficiency. The paper stabilizes PD term structures under forecast uncertainty using a Kalman filter with an anchored observation model.
problem Stable estimation of lifetime PDs under forecast uncertainty.
method Reformulated in state-space framework, introduced an anchored observation model.
result Asymptotic stochastic stability of error dynamics, leading to smoother projections.
The decentralized particle filter (DPF) was proposed recently to increase the level of parallelism of particle filtering. Given a decomposition of the state space into two nested sets of variables, the DPF uses a particle filter to sample the first set and then conditions on this sample to generate a set of samples for…
Adaptive Heston model calibration using PCRLB and switching filters.
problem Estimating volatility in stochastic volatility models like Heston.
method Bayesian filtering (EKF, UKF, PF) with PCRLB for parameter estimation.
result Adaptive estimation of Heston model parameters improves volatility estimation.
In nonlinear state-space models, sequential learning about the hidden state can proceed by particle filtering when the density of the observation conditional on the state is available analytically (e.g. Gordon et al., 1993). This condition need not hold in complex environments, such as the incomplete-information equili…
New method improves Kalman filtering and smoothing for large state spaces.
problem High computational cost and uncertainty in large-scale Kalman filtering.
method Probabilistic numerical method leveraging GPU acceleration and tunable trade-off.
result Mitigates scaling issues and provides more accurate uncertainty estimates.
Study uses a bivariate model to price crude oil futures.
problem Pricing crude oil futures using latent factors and state-space models.
method Modelled short and long term factors as OU processes, estimated using Kalman Filter and maximised Gaussian likelihood.
result Successfully estimated model parameters and factors from WTI Crude Oil NYMEX futures data.
A new method for state estimation in state-space models using incomplete data.
problem State estimation in nonlinear state-space models with incomplete observations.
method Statistical analysis of incomplete observations, score function, observed information matrices, EM-gradient-particle filtering.
result Maximum likelihood estimation of state-vector with explicit form of observed information matrix.
A DRL framework optimizes portfolios using a LFSS module for feature extraction.
problem Optimizing dynamic portfolios in financial markets.
method Deep Reinforcement Learning with a Latent Feature State Space module.
result The proposed DRL framework outperforms benchmarks in portfolio optimization.
We consider a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) where the integrated continuous-time Markov chain can be observed at discrete time points perturbed by a Brownian motion. The aim is to derive a filter for the underlying continuous-time Markov chain. The recursion formula for the discrete-time filter is easy to derive, however i…
Bayesian filtering approach identifies nonlinear restoring forces in dynamic systems.
problem Identification of nonlinear dynamic systems in engineering.
method Modeling the nonlinear restoring force as a Gaussian process, converting it to a state-space model, and inferring internal states and the nonlinear restoring force through filtering and smoothing.
result The approach effectively identifies nonlinear restoring forces in both simulated and experimental datasets.
Develops efficient methods for state-space models with singular errors.
problem Estimating state-space models with singular error covariances.
method Reformulates state-space models as constrained convex optimization problems and develops an efficient algorithm.
result The new approach outperforms competing methods for nonsingular models and is a default choice for state space models.
Many nonlinear extensions of the Kalman filter, e.g., the extended and the unscented Kalman filter, reduce the state densities to Gaussian densities. This approximation gives sufficient results in many cases. However, this filters only estimate states that are correlated with the observation. Therefore, sequential esti…
Paper develops unbiased gradient estimator for continuous-time models.
problem Estimating unbiased gradient of log-likelihood for continuous-time models.
method Doubly randomized scheme with coupled conditional particle filter (CCPF).
result Unbiased gradient estimate facilitates gradient-based algorithms.
We propose a novel method for maximum likelihood-based parameter inference in nonlinear and/or non-Gaussian state space models. The method is an iterative procedure with three steps. At each iteration a particle filter is used to estimate the value of the log-likelihood function at the current parameter iterate. Using …
New method improves state-space model learning with highly informative observations.
problem Challenges in learning state-space models with little measurement noise.
method Tempered Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to handle highly informative observations.
result Successfully estimates likelihood function for state-space models with minimal measurement noise.
KalMamba improves RL efficiency with probabilistic SSMs.
problem Efficiency in learning and inference for probabilistic SSMs in RL.
method Combines Mamba's scalability with Kalman filtering for efficient probabilistic SSMs.
result KalMamba outperforms state-of-the-art SSMs in RL, especially on longer sequences.
A new filter efficiently samples high-dimensional state spaces using mappings embedded in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space.
problem Efficiently sampling high-dimensional state spaces with limited particles.
method Variational mapping particle filter using gradient flow of mappings embedded in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space.
result Quick convergence and stable performance in various chaotic and epidemic models.
A new method for estimating adversarial strategies in nonlinear systems.
problem Inferring an intelligent adversarial agent's strategy in highly nonlinear systems.
method Formulated inverse cognition as a nonlinear Gaussian state-space model and developed an inverse UKF (IUKF) system.
result The estimation error of IUKF converges and closely follows the recursive Cramér-Rao lower bound.
We seek to learn an effective policy for a Markov Decision Process (MDP) with continuous states via Q-Learning. Given a set of basis functions over state action pairs we search for a corresponding set of linear weights that minimizes the mean Bellman residual. Our algorithm uses a Kalman filter model to estimate those …
A new method reduces high-dimensional filtering to quadratic complexity.
problem High-dimensional dynamical systems inference and simulation.
method Low-rank Kalman filtering using dynamical low-rank integrator.
result The method reproduces exact Kalman filter in low-rank limit.
The paper develops a state-space approach to deep Gaussian processes for efficient state estimation.
problem Efficient regression and state estimation for deep Gaussian processes.
method Hierarchical transformed Gaussian process priors, state-space representation, linear stochastic differential equations, sequential methods.
result The state-space approach enables efficient state estimation and regression for deep Gaussian processes.
Paper develops efficient recursive learning for multi-channel systems with heterogeneous dynamics.
problem Accurately learning system dynamics in complex, multi-channel systems with nonlinear and noisy data.
method Formulates system as Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs), introduces heterogeneous multi-output kernel, and develops recursive inference framework.
result Matches SOTA offline GPSSMs in accuracy with 1/100 runtime, and outperforms SOTA online GPSSMs by 70% in accuracy under noise with 1/20 runtime.
A new method for Gaussian filtering using gradient flows and Wasserstein metrics.
problem Approximating Gaussian and mixture-of-Gaussians filtering for complex systems.
method Variational approximation via gradient-flow representation on Wasserstein metric space.
result Competitive performance in posterior representation and parameter estimation for systems with multiplicative noise and multi-modal distributions.
RNF learns distinct representations for Bayesian filtering steps, improving time series prediction accuracy and uncertainty.
problem Improving time series prediction accuracy and uncertainty using distinct representations for Bayesian filtering steps.
method Introduces Recurrent Neural Filter (RNF) architecture that learns distinct representations for each Bayesian filtering step.
result RNF improves accuracy of one-step-ahead forecasts and provides realistic uncertainty estimates.
NSIBF detects anomalies in CPS using neural system identification and Bayesian filtering.
problem Detecting anomalies in CPS with complex dynamics and sensor noise.
method Neural System Identification and Bayesian Filtering (NSIBF).
result NSIBF outperforms state-of-the-art methods in anomaly detection for CPS.
The kernel least mean squares (KLMS) algorithm is a computationally efficient nonlinear adaptive filtering method that "kernelizes" the celebrated (linear) least mean squares algorithm. We demonstrate that the least mean squares algorithm is closely related to the Kalman filtering, and thus, the KLMS can be interpreted…
Differentiable PF via entropy-regularized OT for better inference.
problem Non-differentiability of traditional PF resampling methods.
method Entropy-regularized optimal transport for differentiable resampling.
result Convergent differentiable PF method with improved gradient estimates.
A novel method uses GPLFMs for joint input-state estimation in linear structural systems.
problem Combined state and input estimation of linear structural systems.
method Gaussian process latent force models (GPLFMs) combined with Kalman filters.
result GPLFMs outperform conventional Kalman filters in state and input estimation.
Proposes a probabilistic optimization method for large-scale problems.
problem Large-scale regularized optimization problems.
method Develops a probabilistic interpretation of the incremental proximal gradient algorithm and uses Bayesian filtering.
result Makes it possible to solve large-scale problems using well-known Bayesian filters.