Deep learning enhances active inference for dynamic state spaces.
problem Limited applicability of active inference to continuous state spaces.
method Use of deep learning to approximate probability distributions for active inference.
result Active inference can be applied to continuous state spaces.
New method for state inference in state-space models with unknown dynamics.
problem State inference in state-space models with computationally expensive and undefined dynamics.
method Estimate state transition dynamics using a multi-output Gaussian process and Bayesian Neural Network as a surrogate model.
result Significant improvement in accuracy for state inference and prediction in non-stationary user models.
Paper shows how to infer hidden states in neural networks analytically.
problem Intractability of Bayesian inference for neural networks.
method Leverage tractable approximate Gaussian inference (TAGI) for hidden states inference.
result Demonstrates inference of hidden states through constraints for various applications.
In this letter we borrow from the inference techniques developed for unbounded state-cardinality (nonparametric) variants of the HMM and use them to develop a tuning-parameter free, black-box inference procedure for Explicit-state-duration hidden Markov models (EDHMM). EDHMMs are HMMs that have latent states consisting…
Improved state estimation in nonlinear models using amortized backward variational inference.
problem State estimation in general state-space models.
method Amortized backward variational inference with neural network parameters.
result Linear growth of variational approximation error in number of observations.
Agents learn state ambiguity from non-linear sensor data using Gaussian approximations.
problem Learning state representation from non-linear sensor data.
method Second-order Taylor approximation of Gaussian distribution for non-linear measurement functions.
result Induces a preference for states based on inferability from observations.
New method for efficient Bayesian inference in GPSSMs.
problem Challenges in inference for Gaussian process state-space models.
method Free-form variational inference with stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
result Our method learns transition dynamics and latent states more accurately than competing methods.
This paper tackles hidden state inference for HMMs using particle filtering.
problem Inference for hidden states under HMMs is challenging due to unavailable true labels.
method Adaptive conformal inference framework using particle filtering.
result The framework produces prediction sets with specific aggregated coverage levels.
We address tracking and prediction of multiple moving objects in visual data streams as inference and sampling in a disentangled latent state-space model. By encoding objects separately and including explicit position information in the latent state space, we perform tracking via amortized variational Bayesian inferenc…
This paper presents a fast Bayesian filtering technique for state estimation.
problem Bottleneck in Bayesian inference for state estimation from noisy sensor data.
method Processor-native uncertainty tracking for uncertainty propagation and inference.
result Deterministic approximate filtering with up to 805x speedup and competitive accuracy.
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system identification) in nonlinear nonparametric state-space models. We place a Gauss…
Bayesian inference of discrete component states in civil infrastructures using PGMs and GNNs.
problem Inferring discrete states of civil infrastructure components from measurable responses is an ill-posed inverse problem.
method The study proposes a novel Bayesian inversion paradigm based on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). PGMs are used to model the problem, with parameters learned from data and structural topology prior. Inference is accomplished by GNNs, and a graph property-based training strategy is developed.
result The proposed framework effectively solves the challenges of inferring the posterior PDF for discrete variables in high-dimensional problems.
SING improves state inference in latent SDE models for better drift function estimation.
problem Intractable posterior inference in latent SDE models.
method Natural gradient variational inference.
result SING provides faster and more reliable inference in latent SDE models.
We present a scalable approach to performing approximate fully Bayesian inference in generic state space models. The proposed method is an alternative to particle MCMC that provides fully Bayesian inference of both the dynamic latent states and the static parameters of the model. We build up on recent advances in compu…
Parameter inference in ordinary differential equations is an important problem in many applied sciences and in engineering, especially in a data-scarce setting. In this work, we introduce a novel generative modeling approach based on constrained Gaussian processes and leverage it to build a computationally and data eff…
Deep active inference learns policies from sensory inputs.
problem Learning policies in partially observable domains.
method Optimizes expected free energy with a variational autoencoder.
result Comparable or better performance than deep Q-learning.
New method infers hidden states in continuous-time phenomena better than traditional models.
problem Traditional HSMM's are limited to discrete time grids and cannot handle irregularly spaced data.
method Formulated integro-differential forward and backward equations for CTSMC's, introduced scalable Viterbi-type algorithm.
result Efficiently solved equations for posterior marginals and path estimates.
Paper presents a fast method for estimating hidden states in Bayesian models.
problem Estimating hidden states in Bayesian state space models efficiently.
method Amortized simulation-based inference with pretraining.
result The method achieves sufficient accuracy and fast inference times.
Tree-AMP simplifies inference in complex tree-structured models.
problem Inference in high-dimensional tree-structured models.
method Approximate Message Passing algorithms for various machine learning tasks.
result Theoretical performance predictions and automated entropy estimation.
New method speeds up Gaussian process inference for large datasets.
problem Numerical instability and inefficiency in approximate inference methods for non-Gaussian likelihoods.
method Conjugate-computation variational inference with Kalman recursions.
result Linear-time inference with fast and stable variational inference for state-space GP models.
Model-based reinforcement learning algorithms make decisions by building and utilizing a model of the environment. However, none of the existing algorithms attempts to infer the dynamics of any state-action pair from known state-action pairs before meeting it for sufficient times. We propose a new model-based method ca…
Improved neural likelihood estimation for SSMs with truncated-SNL.
problem Challenges in parameter inference for state-space models.
method Truncated-SNL: a novel inference algorithm addressing SNL's limitations.
result Truncated-SNL is more accurate, scalable, and sample-efficient.
New BED method handles online inference for partially observed dynamical systems.
problem Optimizing data collection for partially observable, partially online dynamical systems.
method Derived estimators of expected information gain and its gradient for SSMs, using nested particle filters.
result Successfully handles both partial observability and online inference in realistic models.
NCDSSM models irregularly sampled time series with improved imputation and forecasting.
problem Accurate modeling of irregularly sampled time series with missing observations.
method Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) with amortized inference for auxiliary variables and flexible dynamic state parameterizations.
result Improved imputation and forecasting performance on multiple benchmark datasets.
Stanza models complex time series with balance between traditional and deep learning approaches.
problem Capturing long-term structure in non-stationary time series.
method Nonlinear, non-stationary state space model.
result Achieves forecasting accuracy competitive with deep LSTMs, especially for multi-step ahead forecasting.
Hybrid neural network infers states from black-box systems.
problem Inference of state models in black-box systems without source code instrumentation.
method Convolutional and recurrent layers learn correlations between time series signals.
result Improves state change point detection by up to 102%.
RSI uses Bayesian inference to monitor compliance in rule-governed domains.
problem Structural obstacles in compliance monitoring, including unlabeled outcomes and selective withholding of evidence.
method Rule-State Inference (RSI) treats formalized rules as Bayesian priors and infers compliance states through mean-field variational inference.
result RSI delivers formal guarantees of adaptability, consistency, and convergence, validated on a synthetic enterprise benchmark.
Model-based planning holds great promise for improving both sample efficiency and generalization in reinforcement learning (RL). We show that energy-based models (EBMs) are a promising class of models to use for model-based planning. EBMs naturally support inference of intermediate states given start and goal state dis…
We solve 6-DoF localisation and 3D reconstruction using deep state-space models.
problem 6-DoF localisation and dense 3D reconstruction in spatial environments.
method Approximate Bayesian inference in a deep state-space model combining learning and domain knowledge.
result Near state-of-the-art performance on UAV flight data.
Existing imitation learning approaches often require that the complete demonstration data, including sequences of actions and states, are available. In this paper, we consider a more realistic and difficult scenario where a reinforcement learning agent only has access to the state sequences of an expert, while the expe…
New PG samplers improve inference in coupled state-space models.
problem Bayesian inference from multiple time series with shared parameters.
method Marginalized Particle Gibbs samplers for coupled state-space models.
result Improved parameter inference through shared information.
State-space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modelling time-series data. Consequently, SSMs are ubiquitously applied in areas such as engineering, econometrics and epidemiology. In this paper we provide a fast approach for approximate Bayesian inference in SSMs using the tools of deep learning and variati…
Method infers MJPs from noisy observations without prior training.
problem Inference of MJPs from noisy and sparse observations is challenging.
method Broad probability distribution, synthetic dataset, and neural network model.
result Zero-shot inference of MJPs across different state spaces.
New variational inference approach using Hilbert space for robotic state estimation.
problem Robotic state estimation with high-dimensional data.
method Variational inference reformulated in a Bayesian Hilbert space, using iterative projection.
result Variational inference can be seen as iterative projection in Euclidean space.
A new pricing controller handles resource constraints to infer target prices effectively.
problem Resource constraints prevent fixed-price inference, leading to support exclusion.
method Formalizes support-exclusion failure, designs a target-aware controller, and uses a realized information clock.
result The controller can certify feasible target bands and log continuous local densities, leading to polynomial rates of inference.
Deep active inference agents learn complex environments using Monte-Carlo methods.
problem Understanding and modeling biological intelligence in complex, continuous state-spaces.
method Neural architecture for deep active inference agents using multiple forms of Monte-Carlo sampling.
result Deep active inference agents can learn environmental dynamics and plan future actions.
Paper uses variational inference to estimate nonlinear models.
problem Parameter estimation for nonlinear state-space models.
method Variational inference approach for nonlinear state-space models.
result The method provides robust parameter estimates and outperforms alternatives.
Surveying nonparametric inference with shape constraints, past and future.
problem Statistical inference under shape constraints.
method Historical overview and future directions.
result Outlook on future research directions.
Improves state space models' resistance to noise.
problem State space models' initialization assumes noise-free data, which is often violated.
method Uncertainty-aware initialization for state space models, reformulating HiPPO with measurement noise.
result Improves model resistance to noise at training and inference time.
Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is one of the most powerful sequence models. Despite the strong performance, however, it lacks the nice interpretability as in state space models. In this paper, we present a way to combine the best of both worlds by introducing State Space LSTM (SSL) models that generalizes the earlier wo…
Ensemble Kalman Filter improves GPSSM inference for online learning.
problem Non-mean-field variational inference issues in GPSSM.
method Combining EnKF with NMF variational inference.
result Improved online learning performance and data-fitting accuracy.
Variational inference has had great success in scaling approximate Bayesian inference to big data by exploiting mini-batch training. To date, however, this strategy has been most applicable to models of independent data. We propose an extension to state space models of time series data based on a novel generative model…
Method infers causal structure from system behaviors using RKHS and kernel ε-machines.
problem Discovering causal structure in systems with varying external and measurement noise.
method Combines causal states and RKHS for efficient representation and inference of causal structure.
result Robustly estimates causal structure in high-dimensional data with varying noise.
New method improves image compression using bits-back coding.
problem Lossy image compression with deep latent variable models.
method Iterative inference, stochastic annealing, bits-back coding.
result New state-of-the-art performance on lossy image compression.
We consider active maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference problem for Hidden Markov Models (HMM), where, given an initial MAP estimate of the hidden sequence, we select to label certain states in the sequence to improve the estimation accuracy of the remaining states. We develop an analytical approach to this problem for…
New algorithm infers trajectories from partial observations using optimal transport.
problem Inferring trajectories from partial observations of coupled systems.
method Extends MFL algorithm to latent SDEs using observable state space models and partial observations.
result Experiments show significant outperformance over latent-free baseline.
Online VSMC efficiently learns SSM parameters in streaming data.
problem Parameter learning and latent state inference in state-space models.
method Combines particle methods and variational inference for online learning.
result Online VSMC achieves efficient, entirely on-the-fly parameter estimation and particle proposal adaptation.
Generative Bayesian Filtering improves inference in complex models without explicit density evaluations.
problem Performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models.
method Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) extends GBC to dynamic settings using deep neural networks for recursive posterior inference. Generative-Gibbs sampler bypasses density evaluations for parameter learning.
result GBF significantly outperforms likelihood-free approaches in accuracy and robustness for intractable state-space models.