A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study identifies transitions between traffic modes on Cologne motorways.
This research improves dynamical systems understanding by identifying latent states and their nonlinear transitions.
Develops methods to simulate rare transitions in molecular systems.
New STH distance finds patterns in event timeseries without resampling.
Proposes a new model for time series that considers smooth transitions between states.
We study the problem of predicting rare critical transition events for a class of slow-fast nonlinear dynamical systems. The state of the system of interest is described by a slow process, whereas a faster process drives its evolution and induces critical transitions. By taking advantage of recent advances in reservoir…
The committor function is a central object of study in understanding transitions between metastable states in complex systems. However, computing the committor function for realistic systems at low temperatures is a challenging task, due to the curse of dimensionality and the scarcity of transition data. In this paper,…
We give a polynomial-time algorithm for learning latent-state linear dynamical systems without system identification, and without assumptions on the spectral radius of the system's transition matrix. The algorithm extends the recently introduced technique of spectral filtering, previously applied only to systems with a…
The study of the critical dynamics in complex systems is always interesting yet challenging. Here, we choose financial market as an example of a complex system, and do a comparative analyses of two stock markets - the S&P 500 (USA) and Nikkei 225 (JPN). Our analyses are based on the evolution of crosscorrelation struct…
Machine learning predicts synchronization transitions in unknown systems.
We focus on variational inference in dynamical systems where the discrete time transition function (or evolution rule) is modelled by a Gaussian process. The dominant approach so far has been to use a factorised posterior distribution, decoupling the transition function from the system states. This is not exact in gene…
Change-point analysis is a flexible and computationally tractable tool for the analysis of times series data from systems that transition between discrete states and whose observables are corrupted by noise. The change-point algorithm is used to identify the time indices (change points) at which the system transitions …
Neural Physicist learns physical dynamics from images.
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system identification) in nonlinear nonparametric state-space models. We place a Gauss…
Manually authoring transition animations for a complete locomotion system can be a tedious and time-consuming task, especially for large games that allow complex and constrained locomotion movements, where the number of transitions grows exponentially with the number of states. In this paper, we present a novel approac…
Deep reinforcement learning method finds rare events in complex systems.
Improved simulation of phase transitions using hierarchical autoregressive networks.
New methods use machine learning to simulate rare transitions in molecular systems.
Optimizes state monitoring in Markovian systems with cost constraints.
We identify a new variational inference scheme for dynamical systems whose transition function is modelled by a Gaussian process. Inference in this setting has either employed computationally intensive MCMC methods, or relied on factorisations of the variational posterior. As we demonstrate in our experiments, the fact…
State aggregation is a popular model reduction method rooted in optimal control. It reduces the complexity of engineering systems by mapping the system's states into a small number of meta-states. The choice of aggregation map often depends on the data analysts' knowledge and is largely ad hoc. In this paper, we propos…
A framework combining HSMM and survival analysis for lifecycle-oriented mobility analysis.
Paper introduces OMD for ordered state transitions in SSMs.
Neural models learn continuous-time Markov chain transition rates from data.
Linear Dynamical System (LDS) is an elegant mathematical framework for modeling and learning multivariate time series. However, in general, it is difficult to set the dimension of its hidden state space. A small number of hidden states may not be able to model the complexities of a time series, while a large number of …
A Semi-Hidden Markov Model (SHMM) for bursty error channels is defined by a state transition probability matrix , a prior probability vector , and the state dependent output symbol error probability matrix . Several processes are utilized for estimating , and from a given empirically obtained or sim…
Machine learning detects tipping points in complex systems.
The paper characterizes brain states and transitions using functional MRI data.
This study uses persistent homology to analyze complex transitional networks from time series data.
In Maslov (2003), a two level model of the occurrence of financial pyramid (bubbles) has been considered. We also considered the mathematical analogy of this model to Bose condensation. In the present paper, we explain why Ponzi schemes and bubbles result in a crisis in real economics. In Maslov (2005), the law of incr…
Federated learning interprets temporal dynamics across clients with graph attention.
A new method identifies critical transitions in high-dimensional data.
Novel approach detects early warning indicators in complex systems.
Combines deep state space models with diffusion models for better forecasting and capturing latent dynamics
We consider the problem of learning in Linear Quadratic Control systems whose transition parameters are initially unknown. Recent results in this setting have demonstrated efficient learning algorithms with regret growing with the square root of the number of decision steps. We present new efficient algorithms that ach…
We study online reinforcement learning for finite-horizon deterministic control systems with {\it arbitrary} state and action spaces. Suppose that the transition dynamics and reward function is unknown, but the state and action space is endowed with a metric that characterizes the proximity between different states and…
Model reduction of Markov processes is a basic problem in modeling state-transition systems. Motivated by the state aggregation approach rooted in control theory, we study the statistical state compression of a discrete-state Markov chain from empirical trajectories. Through the lens of spectral decomposition, we study…
GDM models time series with smoother transitions and interpretable states.
Develops a machine learning framework for computing most probable paths in stochastic systems.
Defines Learning Analytics' foundational structure and scope.
Modeling unknown systems from data is a precursor of system optimization and sequential decision making. In this paper, we focus on learning a Markov model from a single trajectory of states. Suppose that the transition model has a small rank despite of having a large state space, meaning that the system admits a low-d…
Modeling dynamical systems is important in many disciplines, e.g., control, robotics, or neurotechnology. Commonly the state of these systems is not directly observed, but only available through noisy and potentially high-dimensional observations. In these cases, system identification, i.e., finding the measurement map…
CNMs detect tipping points in complex systems using causal network markers.
This paper studies how to find compact state embeddings from high-dimensional Markov state trajectories, where the transition kernel has a small intrinsic rank. In the spirit of diffusion map, we propose an efficient method for learning a low-dimensional state embedding and capturing the process's dynamics. This idea a…
Study non-asymptotic bounds on correlation in high-dimensional linear systems, revealing invariant subspaces and bottlenecks.
LS4 models time-series with latent states, outperforming previous methods.
In this paper we explore the functional correlation approach to operational risk. We consider networks with heterogeneous a-priori conditional and unconditional failure probability. In the limit of sparse connectivity, self-consistent expressions for the dynamical evolution of order parameters are obtained. Under equil…
Dynamical systems with large state-spaces are often expensive to thoroughly explore experimentally. Coarse-graining methods aim to define simpler systems which are more amenable to analysis and exploration; most current methods, however, focus on a priori state aggregation based on similarities in transition rates, whi…