arXiv research

In this paper we study the financial repercussions of the destruction of two fully armed and operational moon-sized battle stations ("Death Stars") in a 4-year period and the dissolution of the galactic government in Star Wars. The emphasis of this work is to calibrate and simulate a model of the banking and financial …

A movie multilayer network model captures narration from script, subtitles, and content.

We investigate the role of networks of alliances in preventing (multilateral) interstate wars. We first show that, in the absence of international trade, no network of alliances is peaceful and stable. We then show that international trade induces peaceful and stable networks: trade increases the density of alliances s…

New findings show pure strategy equilibria are more robust in a war of attrition game.

The paper uses machine learning to predict the impact of the Ukraine crisis on financial markets.

Study reveals clusters of resilient and vulnerable Spanish agri-food firms post-Ukraine-Russia war.

Territorial control is a key aspect shaping the dynamics of civil war. Despite its importance, we lack data on territorial control that are fine-grained enough to account for subnational spatio-temporal variation and that cover a large set of conflicts. To resolve this issue, we propose a theoretical model of the relat…

Study analyzes stock order transitions during US-China trade war using Markov chains.

We perform detrending moving average analysis (DMA) and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) of the WTI crude oil futures prices (1983-2012) to investigate its efficiency. We further put forward a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping to verify the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis by employing th…

We present a new, efficient method for automatically detecting severe conflicts `edit wars' in Wikipedia and evaluate this method on six different language WPs. We discuss how the number of edits, reverts, the length of discussions, the burstiness of edits and reverts deviate in such pages from those following the gene…

This paper examines how the U.S.--China trade war affects stock markets, finding evidence of financial contagion and changes in risk channels.

Noisy labels often occur in vision datasets, especially when they are obtained from crowdsourcing or Web scraping. We propose a new regularization method, which enables learning robust classifiers in presence of noisy data. To achieve this goal, we propose a new adversarial regularization scheme based on the Wasserstei…

DefogGAN predicts hidden RTS game information to aid strategic decision-making.

It is demonstrated that the US economy has on the long-term in reality been governed by the Keynesian approach to economics independent of the current official economical policy. This is done by calculating the two-point correlation function between the fluctuations of the DJIA and the US public debt. We find that the …

Just as war is sometimes fallaciously represented as a zero sum game -- when in fact war is a negative sum game - stock market trading, a positive sum game over time, is often erroneously represented as a zero sum game. This is called the "zero sum fallacy" -- the erroneous belief that one trader in a stock market exch…

We develop an option pricing model based on a tug-of-war game. This two-player zero-sum stochastic differential game is formulated in the context of a multi-dimensional financial market. The issuer and the holder try to manipulate asset price processes in order to minimize and maximize the expected discounted reward. W…

Paper proposes a new model to prevent tariff wars by balancing trade balances.

HSBC grew from colonial China through wars, surviving unethical practices.

We consider a stochastic game of contribution to the common good in which the players have continuous control over the degree of contribution, and we examine the gradualism arising from the free rider effect. This game belongs to the class of variable concession games which generalize wars of attrition. Previously know…

Study shows negative war news correlates with increased stock market volatility.

Are expansions and recessions more likely to end as their magnitude increases? In this paper we apply parametric hazard models to investigate this issue in a sample of 16 countries from 1881 to 2000. For the total sample we find evidence of positive magnitude dependence for recessions, while for expansions we are not a…

We consider the problem of high-level strategy selection in the adversarial setting of real-time strategy games from a reinforcement learning perspective, where taking an action corresponds to switching to the respective strategy. Here, a good strategy successfully counters the opponent's current and possible future st…

Study examines how war impacts financial entropy.

Introduces Star-Shaped deviation measures for risk analysis.

Algorithm achieves optimal regret for unknown Lipschitz convex losses.

New star-shaped acceptability indexes generalize existing methods.

Paper proves conjecture about star-shaped curves evolving under GAPF, but not always preserves star shape.

In this article, we introduce the notion of star-Ricci tensors in the real hypersurfaces of complex quadric $Q^m$. It is proved that there exist no Hopf hypersurfaces in $Q^m,m\geq3$, with commuting star-Ricci tensor or parallel star-Ricci tensor. As a generalization of star-Einstein metric, star-Ricci solitons on $M$ …

Classifies star products on Lie algebroid duals and extends to projectable quantizations.

New set-valued star-shaped risk measures introduced for better risk assessment.

Flow turns star-shaped curves into circles.

The paper studies dynamic star-shaped risk measures and their representation.

Paper disproves symmetry of stars at infinity in a specific graph.

Study star products on Poisson manifolds compatible with reduction.

Study finds varying market efficiency in prewar and wartime Japanese stock market.

The paper characterizes dynamic return and star-shaped risk measures via BSDEs.

Deform moment map on symplectic connections using star product algebras.

CasVAE outperforms supervised methods for star-galaxy classification.

Paper analyzes Birkhoff relaxation for graph alignment, providing theoretical guarantees.

New partition designs reduce star discrepancy in high-dimensional sampling.

We compare the star surgery operations introduced in [KS] to the generalized rational blow-down. We show that star surgery shares the properties that make rational blow-down useful for constructions of small exotic symplectic 4-manifolds. Then we show that star surgery operations provide a strictly more general class o…

We derive a closed formula for a star-product on complex projective space and on the domain $SU(n+1)/S(U(1)\times U(n))$ using a completely elementary construction: Starting from the standard star-product of Wick type on $C^{n+1} \setminus \{ 0 \}$ and performing a quantum analogue of Marsden-Weinstein reduction, we ca…

Estimates how many times a star appears due to gravitational lensing.

Improved SGD learning for single index models reduces sample complexity.

The paper finds at least four prime closed characteristics on star-shaped hypersurfaces in 8D space.

This paper connects monetary and star-shaped risk measures by showing their equivalence under certain conditions.

The paper proves inequalities for star-shaped and $F$-mean convex hypersurfaces in $\mathbb{R}^{n+1}$.

We define the notion of a formal connection for a smooth family of star products with fixed underlying symplectic structure. Such a formal connection allows one to relate star products at different points in the family. This generalizes the formal Hitchin connection introduced by the first author. We establish a necess…