Paper develops robust econometric methods for staggered adoption studies.
problem Estimation challenges in event studies with staggered adoption.
method Design-first framework with exact probability limits, diagnostics, and orthogonal score constructions.
result Uniformly valid inference under restricted violations of parallel trends.
Study uses exchangeable GPs for staggered-adoption policy evaluation in panel data.
problem Evaluating the impact of staggered treatments in panel data settings.
method Exchangeable multi-task Gaussian processes (GPs) with flexible kernels.
result Flexible tool for policy evaluation in panel data settings.
A new estimator reduces bias and improves efficiency for staggered adoption studies.
problem Bias in difference-in-differences estimates for staggered adoption studies.
method Fused Extended Two-Way Fixed Effects (FETWFE) estimator with automatic parameter selection.
result FETWFE identifies correct restrictions with probability tending to one, improving efficiency.
Cluster jackknife improves inference for staggered DID methods.
problem Over-rejection of CSDID in small clusters or treated clusters.
method Cluster jackknife for CSDID inference.
result Cluster jackknife greatly improves inference for CSDID.
Estimating treatment effects in time series with hidden confounding.
problem Estimating treatment effects in time series with hidden confounding.
method A neural framework that learns individual-level counterfactuals and flexible matching procedures.
result Improves counterfactual estimation under latent bias.
Simple method for estimating missing panel data entries with confidence intervals.
problem Estimating missing values in panel data with staggered adoption.
method Simple matrix algebra and singular value decomposition for estimation, with data-driven confidence intervals.
result Confidence intervals match non-asymptotic lower bounds, proving instance optimality.
A fast, accurate method for pricing American options with free boundaries.
problem Pricing American options with free boundaries efficiently and accurately.
method A sixth-order compact finite difference scheme with a dynamic staggered boundary scheme and 3(2) R-K Bogacki-Shampine time stepping.
result An efficient sixth-order compact scheme for pricing American options with free boundaries.
We address a class of schemes for the Euler equations with the following features: the space discretization is staggered, possible upwinding is performed with respect to the material velocity only and the internal energy balance is solved, with a correction term designed on consistency arguments. These schemes have bee…
DiD-BCF model improves causal inference in panel data with robust non-parametric methods.
problem Challenges in Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimation, especially heterogeneous treatment effects and non-linearities.
method Difference-in-Differences Bayesian Causal Forest (DiD-BCF) with PTA-based reparameterization.
result DiD-BCF provides superior performance and uncovers significant heterogeneity in treatment effects.
The scheduling of films is a major problem for the movie theatre exhibition business. The problem is two-fold: movie exhibitors ideally would like to schedule films to screens in their various locations to maximize attendance and revenue, but would also like to schedule these films such that neighbouring theatre locati…
Generative AI boosts productivity and improves customer service quality.
problem Productivity and quality of customer support agents.
method Staggered introduction of a generative AI-based conversational assistant in customer support.
result AI increases productivity by 15% on average, with significant heterogeneity across workers.
Interactive IL beats BC by state-wise annotation cost.
problem Behavior Cloning struggles with annotation cost in sequential decision making.
method Proved Stagger and Warm Stagger algorithms to outperform BC.
result Interactive and hybrid IL methods outperform BC with state-wise annotation.
This article reviews recent advances in convex optimization algorithms for Big Data, which aim to reduce the computational, storage, and communications bottlenecks. We provide an overview of this emerging field, describe contemporary approximation techniques like first-order methods and randomization for scalability, a…
Digital transformation boosts corporate financial asset allocation, especially short-term.
problem Understanding how digital transformation affects corporate financial decisions.
method Fixed-effects models and staggered DID design using A-share listed companies data.
result Digital transformation significantly promotes corporate financial asset allocation, more pronounced in short-term.
We consider a numerical approach for the incompressible surface Navier-Stokes equation. The approach is based on the covariant form and uses discrete exterior calculus (DEC) in space and a semi-implicit discretization in time. The discretization is described in detail and related to finite difference schemes on stagger…
Proposes SSC for estimating counterfactual survival trajectories from observational data.
problem Challenges in estimating causal effects on time-to-event outcomes from observational data.
method Synthetic Survival Control (SSC) framework for estimating counterfactual hazard trajectories in panel data settings.
result SSC estimates counterfactual hazard trajectories as a weighted combination of observed trajectories from other units.
We investigate 17 digital currencies making an analogy with quantum systems and develop the concept of eigenportfolios. We show that the density of states of the correlation matrix of these assets shows a behavior between that of the Wishart ensemble and one whose elements are Cauchy distributed. A metric for the parti…
Monopoly breakup impacts AT&T and AMX's market value by 65% and 32%.
problem Understanding how financial markets value monopoly rents post-breakup.
method Univariate structural time series models to estimate pre-breakup and post-breakup values.
result Monopoly breakup significantly impacts market capitalization, as shown by AT&T and AMX.
Enhances UPSA to reduce noise in financial data.
problem Noise in financial data affects UPSA's performance.
method Time-averaging optimal penalty weights and using Average Oracle correlation eigenvalues.
result Combining time-averaging and Average Oracle correlation eigenvalues improves UPSA's performance.
Bayesian methods improve DiD analysis for ATT estimation.
problem Estimating ATT in DiD designs with improved accuracy.
method Semiparametric Bayesian outcome regression and doubly robust adjustment.
result Bayesian methods provide strong finite-sample performance.
We propose a unified structural credit risk model incorporating both insolvency and illiquidity risks, in order to investigate how a firm's default probability depends on the liquidity risk associated with its financing structure. We assume the firm finances its risky assets by mainly issuing short- and long-term debt.…
Improved Thompson Sampling outperforms existing Bayesian optimization methods.
problem Thompson Sampling's performance in Bayesian optimization is suboptimal compared to other methods.
method Developed Stagger Thompson Sampler (STS), which more precisely samples the optimal arm with less computation.
result STS outperforms TS, PSS, and other acquisition methods in various optimization tasks.
Meta-learning is a tool that allows us to build sample-efficient learning systems. Here we show that, once meta-trained, LSTM Meta-Learners aren't just faster learners than their sample-inefficient deep learning (DL) and reinforcement learning (RL) brethren, but that they actually pursue fundamentally different learnin…
Paper analyzes tech adoption in financial networks, finding key leadership and diffusion dynamics.
problem Understanding technology adoption and network effects in financial systems.
method Developed a spatial-network framework with a master equation and Feynman-Kac representation.
result Found strong support for two-regime adoption dynamics and significant leadership in network central banks.
Methods for prediction and tolerance intervals in non-normal models.
problem Constructing prediction and tolerance intervals for non-normal data.
method Two approaches: pivotal quantity approximation and confidence interval for mean.
result Intuitive, simple, efficient methods with proper operating characteristics.
The Web has enabled one of the most visible recent developments in education---the deployment of massive open online courses. With their global reach and often staggering enrollments, MOOCs have the potential to become a major new mechanism for learning. Despite this early promise, however, MOOCs are still relatively u…
Adapts bandit algorithms for online survival analysis under Cox PH model.
problem Online survival analysis challenges in a bandit framework.
method Adapts three bandit algorithms to balance exploration and exploitation.
result Demonstrates sublinear regret bounds and effective learning of treatment policies.
Efficient methods estimate concordance probability for big data.
problem Efficiently calculating concordance probability in large datasets.
method Proposes two estimation methods for discrete and continuous settings.
result Estimators are accurate and computationally efficient.
Study analyzes smart contract adoption under bounded risk, showing stable adoption but fragile financial outcomes.
problem Understanding smart contract adoption in derivative markets under risk constraints.
method Structural theory linked with simulation and real-world validation.
result Adoption intensity is stable but profitability and service outcomes are sensitive to volatility.
Taking inspiration from biological evolution, we explore the idea of "Can deep neural networks evolve naturally over successive generations into highly efficient deep neural networks?" by introducing the notion of synthesizing new highly efficient, yet powerful deep neural networks over successive generations via an ev…
In this work, we analyze the problem of adoption of mobile money in Pakistan by using the call detail records of a major telecom company as our input. Our results highlight the fact that different sections of the society have different patterns of adoption of digital financial services but user mobility related feature…
The well-known Ising model used in statistical physics was adapted to a social dynamics context to simulate the adoption of a technological innovation. The model explicitly combines (a) an individual's perception of the advantages of an innovation and (b) social influence from members of the decision-maker's social net…
Neural networks and deep learning are changing the way that artificial intelligence is being done. Efficiently choosing a suitable network architecture and fine-tune its hyper-parameters for a specific dataset is a time-consuming task given the staggering number of possible alternatives. In this paper, we address the p…
Study optimizes smart contract adoption under high demand variability using Negative Binomial models.
problem Effective supply chain management under high demand variability.
method Combines dynamic Negative Binomial demand modeling with endogenous smart contract adoption optimization.
result The NB model outperforms other benchmarks in forecasting and optimizing smart contract adoption and order quantity.
The last few years have seen a staggering number of empirical studies of the robustness of neural networks in a model of adversarial perturbations of their inputs. Most rely on an adversary which carries out local modifications within prescribed balls. None however has so far questioned the broader picture: how to fram…
This paper addresses the morphing of manifold-valued images based on the time discrete geodesic paths model of Berkels, Effland and Rumpf 2015. Although for our manifold-valued setting such an interpretation of the energy functional is not available so far, the model is interesting on its own. We prove the existence of…
Proposes an active RBI framework using Rényi information measures for more informed decision-making.
problem Optimal latent variable estimates in real-time settings with streaming noisy observations.
method Unified inference and query selection steps through Rényi entropy and α-divergence; new objective called Momentum for exploration.
result Analytically demonstrates superior performance compared to conventional methods like mutual information.
When the full stock of a new product is quickly sold in a few days or weeks, one has the impression that new technologies develop and conquer the market in a very easy way. This may be true for some new technologies, for example the cell phone, but not for others, like the blue-ray. Novelty, usefulness, advertising, pr…
In this paper, we study the design and analysis of experiments conducted on a set of units over multiple time periods where the starting time of the treatment may vary by unit. The design problem involves selecting an initial treatment time for each unit in order to most precisely estimate both the instantaneous and cu…
Experts predict significant adoption of decentralized finance by 2034, with traditional finance adapting.
problem Adoption and integration of decentralized finance (DeFi) in financial services.
method Survey analysis using New Institutional Economics and Dynamic Capabilities Theory.
result Experts expect adoption of DeFi to rise from negligible to 43% by 2034, with traditional finance likely to embrace it.
We propose a modelling framework for the optimal selection of crypto assets. Crypto assets differ by two essential features: security (technological) and stability (governance). Investors make choices over crypto assets similarly to how they make choices by using a recommender app: the app presents each investor with a…
Paper proposes a new method for predicting DER adoption with hierarchical guarantees.
problem Accurately predicting DER adoption in electric grids with uncertainty and spatial disparity.
method Multivariate Hawkes process for modeling DER adoption dynamics and split conformal prediction algorithm for hierarchical validity.
result Empirical evaluation shows superior predictive accuracy and uncertainty calibration compared to existing methods.
Study develops smart contract framework for procurement under demand variability.
problem Operational and economic implications of smart contract adoption under moderate uncertainty.
method Multi-supplier model with endogenized adoption costs, supplier readiness, and inventory penalties; analytical and numerical results.
result Partial adoption strategies support moderate demand variability, while excessive digital investment reduces profitability.
Study compares 29 emulators across 60 test functions and 40 datasets.
problem Comparing the strengths and weaknesses of different emulators.
method Large-scale, fully reproducible comparison using R package duqling.
result Detailed empirical insights into emulator strengths and weaknesses.
Model shows AI adoption amplifies financial market risk through prediction, herding, and cognitive dependency.
problem Systemic risk in financial markets due to AI adoption.
method Developed a unified model within an extended rational expectations framework, incorporating endogenous adoption, performative prediction, algorithmic herding, and cognitive dependency.
result Systemic risk multiplier grows superlinearly with AI penetration, implying tail-loss amplification of 18-54%.
ADOPT optimizes Adam to converge with any β2 without bounded noise.
problem Non-convergence of Adam optimization algorithm.
method ADOPT removes current gradient from second moment estimate and changes momentum update order.
result ADOPT achieves optimal convergence rate of O(1 / √T) with any β2.
GenAI adoption paradoxically lowers ROE for U.S. banks, with spillovers but systemic risk concerns.
problem Productivity paradox and implementation costs in U.S. banking sector with AI adoption.
method Dynamic Spatial Durbin Models (DSDM) and Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) for causal inference.
result AI adoption leads to a 428-basis-point decline in ROE for banks, with spillovers but systemic risk implications.
AI-driven investment strategies self-defeat at scale due to signal crowding and erosion.
problem Excess returns from AI-driven investment strategies diminish at scale due to signal crowding and erosion.
method Theoretical model and empirical validation using SEC Form 13F filings and hedge fund return dynamics.
result The alpha half-life of signals decreases significantly with AI adoption, leading to diminishing returns.