The paper proposes a method to stabilize predictions by identifying causal variables using a seed variable.
problem Stable prediction across unknown test data with potential spurious correlations.
method Conditional independence test based algorithm using a seed variable to separate causal from non-causal variables.
result The algorithm precisely separates causal and non-causal variables for stable prediction across test data.
Stable health predictions need deconfounding test set features.
problem Stability of predictions in health machine learning is compromised by selection biases.
method Deconfounding the test set features improves prediction stability across different environments.
result Improved stability achieved by deconfounding test set features.
Proposes DGBR for stable predictions across unknown environments.
problem Stable predictions across unknown environments in machine learning.
method Joint optimization of a deep auto-encoder for feature selection and a global balancing model for stable prediction.
result Demonstrates stable predictions across unknown environments with empirical experiments.
A new metric for stable model selection in CATE prediction.
problem Model selection in conditional average treatment effect (CATE) prediction.
method Analysis of model performance ranking and formulation of a novel metric.
result Our metric outperforms existing metrics in model selection and hyperparameter tuning.
I-SPEC learns stable models from data without full causal knowledge.
problem Learning models that generalize well across shifts in environment.
method End-to-end framework using partial ancestral graph to learn stable interventional distribution.
result I-SPEC can learn robust models without full causal knowledge.
SFB uses stable features to adapt unstable ones for better performance.
problem Improving classifier performance on out-of-distribution data by leveraging stable features.
method SFB learns a predictor that separates stable and unstable features, then adapts unstable predictions using stable predictions.
result SFB can learn an asymptotically-optimal predictor without test-domain labels.
Retraining stabilizes model influence on data.
problem Performativity in predictive models leads to feedback loops.
method Developed the stable signal principle to address retraining dynamics.
result Repeated risk minimization converges geometrically to stable signal direction.
The paper addresses online prediction in marginally stable systems with bounded perturbations.
problem Online prediction in marginally stable linear dynamical systems with adversarial or stochastic perturbations.
method The online least-squares algorithm is used to achieve sublinear regret, with a refined regret analysis and a structural lemma.
result The online least-squares algorithm achieves sublinear regret, with polynomial dependence on the system's parameters.
Proposes BSSP to stabilize predictions in biased data.
problem Distribution shift between training and test data causes prediction instability.
method Balance-subsampled stable prediction (BSSP) algorithm based on fractional factorial design.
result Significantly improves prediction stability across unknown test data.
New algorithms achieve stable and private predictions with reduced sample complexity.
problem Achieving stable and private predictions in binary classification.
method Developed new algorithms for stable and private prediction, reducing sample complexity.
result Achieved stable and private predictions with reduced sample complexity for VC dimension d. CausalKinetiX identifies stable kinetic models from noisy data.
problem Learning stable and predictive kinetic models from noisy data.
method CausalKinetiX framework for identifying structure from discrete time, noisy observations.
result Causal approach improves generalization and prediction in kinetic systems.
Model predicts stable molecules with AI and physics constraints.
problem Designing stable molecules with limited data.
method Graph Scattering Variational Autoencoder with physical constraints.
result Model generates stable molecules with desired properties.
Stable long-term predictions for fluid flows using neural networks.
problem Predicting complex dynamics of fluid flows with high temporal stability.
method End-to-end trained neural network architecture combining CNN for spatial compression and LSTM for temporal prediction.
result Novel latent space subdivision (LSS) allows stable and controllable long-term predictions.
New algorithms improve policy evaluation in reinforcement learning.
problem Off-policy stability and on-policy efficiency issues in policy evaluation.
method Introduced novel algorithms using oblique projection method.
result Demonstrated both off-policy stability and on-policy efficiency.
Improved CFR achieves faster convergence to Nash equilibrium.
problem Theoretical slow convergence rate of CFR algorithms.
method Combining predictive and stable regret minimizers within CFR.
result Achieves O(T−3/4) convergence rate, faster than O(T−1/2). Proposes a method to learn stable invariant sets in dynamical systems.
problem Learning stable invariant sets in general dynamical systems.
method Generalizes Manek and Kolter's approach by introducing projection onto latent space shapes and using invertible neural networks.
result Validates the method and shows its usefulness for long-term prediction.
New method clusters ab initio dynamics to predict excited state properties.
problem Complex excited state dynamics in polyatomic systems.
method Time series guided clustering algorithm to generate meta-stable patterns.
result Accurate prediction of ground and excited state properties.
Unified framework for analyzing stable learning algorithms across different dataset shifts.
problem Analyzing and comparing stability of learning algorithms across various dataset shifts.
method Causal graphical representation to express dataset shifts and a hierarchy of operators to disable shift-causing edges.
result Established conditions for optimal performance and derived new algorithms for finding stable distributions.
Successful attempts to predict judges' votes shed light into how legal decisions are made and, ultimately, into the behavior and evolution of the judiciary. Here, we investigate to what extent it is possible to make predictions of a justice's vote based on the other justices' votes in the same case. For our predictions…
Spectral gradient methods outperform Euclidean in certain deep learning scenarios.
problem When do spectral gradient updates outperform Euclidean in deep learning?
method Layerwise condition comparing squared nuclear-to-Frobenius ratio to stable rank of activations.
result Spectral updates can be more effective than Euclidean in deep networks and transformers.
LOO-StabCP speeds up CP for multiple predictions.
problem Balancing computational efficiency and prediction accuracy in CP.
method Leave-One-Out Stable Conformal Prediction (LOO-StabCP) using algorithmic stability.
result LOO-StabCP is faster and more accurate than RO-StabCP.
A new Bayesian approach to linear system identification has been proposed in a series of recent papers. The main idea is to frame linear system identification as predictor estimation in an infinite dimensional space, with the aid of regularization/Bayesian techniques. This approach guarantees the identification of stab…
Method predicts LFSM increments from past observations using codifference.
problem Forecasting LFSM increments from discrete-time observations.
method Uses codifference for serial dependence, with conditional expectation or projection for α>1 or α<2. result Method shows promising performance in forecasting volatilities, capturing kurtosis and serial dependence.
Bayesian Invariant Prediction models stable features from multi-environment data.
problem Analyzing stable features across multiple environments for better prediction and understanding.
method Developed Bayesian Invariant Prediction (BIP) model that encodes invariant feature indices as latent variables and infers them via posterior inference.
result BIP and its variational approximation (VI-BIP) outperform existing methods in accuracy and scalability for invariant prediction.
SIRUS creates interpretable rules from random forests for manufacturing.
problem Lack of interpretability in complex models for critical decisions.
method SIRUS is a classification algorithm based on random forests that produces a simple list of rules.
result SIRUS achieves stability and accuracy comparable to random forests.
Stable deep models learn dynamical systems with formal stability guarantees.
problem Difficulties in making formal claims about stability of deep network dynamics models.
method Jointly learning a dynamics model and Lyapunov function to ensure non-expansiveness.
result Proposes an approach for stable deep learning of dynamical systems.
Study compares MoE and RNN models for stock price prediction across volatility profiles.
problem Improving stock price prediction accuracy across different volatility levels.
method Dynamic Mixture of Experts model combining RNN and linear models, adjusting weights through a gating network.
result MoE model outperforms individual models in reducing prediction errors.
A cubing strategy identifies stable hyperparameter regions for uncertainty quantification in spatial deep learning.
problem Uncertainty quantification in spatial deep learning models.
method Cubing-based diagnostic framework to recursively partition hyperparameter space and evaluate regions using scoring rules.
result Our approach produces competitive or superior predictive intervals compared to a statistical baseline model.
Predictive coding networks are shown to be stable, robust, and converge faster than backpropagation.
problem Stability, robustness, and convergence of predictive coding networks.
method Dynamical systems theory and Lyapunov stability analysis.
result Predictive coding networks are Lyapunov stable and converge faster than backpropagation.
FIRES framework selects stable features from online data.
problem Efficiently selecting features in online settings with limited data.
method FIRES framework uses model parameter importance for feature selection.
result FIRES selects stable feature sets with minimal model complexity.
SIRUS creates interpretable rules from random forests for regression.
problem Lack of interpretability in complex machine learning models.
method Random forest with rule extraction for stability and simplicity.
result SIRUS produces stable and interpretable rule sets.
Study homotopy types of free racks and quandles, proving analogs of Milnor's theorem.
problem Understanding the homotopy types of free racks and quandles.
method Proved analogs of Milnor's theorem for racks and quandles and their pointed variants.
result Identified the homotopy types of free racks and quandles on spaces of generators.
Python library for conformal prediction, licensed under MIT.
problem Improving prediction accuracy with uncertainty quantification.
method Conformal prediction framework implemented in Python.
result Stable API and algorithms for conformal prediction.
New method improves stability of collaborative filtering.
problem Stability issues in matrix approximation for recommender systems.
method Introduces new optimization objectives and solves the optimization problem for stable matrix approximation.
result Achieves better accuracy in rating prediction and top-N recommendation tasks.
Scl in groups acting on trees is rational and converges to limits.
problem Understanding stable commutator length in group actions on trees.
method Analyzing groups acting on trees with cyclic stabilizers, focusing on stable commutator length and its limits.
result Stable commutator length is rational and converges to limits in surgery families.
Online algorithms stabilize in feedback loops of performative prediction.
problem Feedback loops in algorithmic predictions influence data distributions.
method Martingale argument and randomization to avoid distributional assumptions.
result No-regret algorithms converge to performatively stable equilibria.
Random forests are stable and provide reliable prediction intervals.
problem Stability and reliability of random forest prediction intervals.
method Established stability under mild conditions and proved coverage bounds.
result Non-asymptotic lower and upper bounds for prediction interval coverage.
This paper optimizes performative risk by focusing on convex properties and developing efficient algorithms.
problem Performative risk, the loss experienced by decision makers, is not optimized by stable models.
method Identifying convex properties of loss function and model-induced distribution shift, developing algorithms for optimization.
result Optimization of performative risk with better sample efficiency than generic methods.
Algorithm learns dynamics from past observations.
problem Learning a nonlinear dynamical system.
method Spectral filtering, online convex optimization.
result Vanishing prediction error for marginally stable systems.
LSTM model predicts stock prices with high accuracy in stable sectors but struggles with volatile ones.
problem Predicting stock prices in emerging markets with limited data.
method Developed and evaluated an LSTM network on historical OHLCV data and technical indicators.
result Strong predictive performance (R2>0.87) for stable sectors, but challenges for volatile ones. FlowMM models stable crystal structures efficiently.
problem Predicting and proposing stable crystalline structures.
method Riemannian Flow Matching generalized to crystal symmetries.
result 3x more efficient at finding stable materials.
Study improves stock price prediction using adaptive Mixture of Experts framework.
problem Tackles diverse volatility regimes in stock price prediction.
method Combines RNN for high-volatility stocks and linear regression for stable stocks with a gating mechanism.
result Achieves up to 33% improvement in MSE for volatile assets and 28% for stable assets.
Thermalizer stabilizes autoregressive models for long-term predictions in chaotic systems.
problem Long-term predictions in chaotic spatiotemporal systems are unreliable due to trajectory divergence.
method Diffusion models are used to implicitly estimate the score of an invariant measure, which stabilizes autoregressive emulators by applying denoising during inference.
result Thermalization extends the time horizon of stable predictions by an order of magnitude in chaotic systems.
iRF detects stable high-order interactions in genomics data.
problem Understanding high-order interactions in genomics data.
method Iterative Random Forest algorithm (iRF) for stable high-order interaction detection.
result iRF identifies stable high-order interactions with computational cost similar to Random Forest.
Deep learning reveals lagged correlations in stock markets, showing accuracy decreases with shorter prediction horizons.
problem Capturing non-linear interactions in financial prediction problems using large-scale datasets.
method Applying deep learning to econometrically constructed gradients to learn and exploit lagged correlations among S&P 500 stocks.
result Model accuracies decrease with shorter prediction horizons, but remain significant in both stable and volatile markets.
New algorithm learns stable LDSs with lower error and better control performance.
problem Learning stable LDSs from data with minimal reconstruction error and stability constraints.
method Proposes an optimization method using a recent characterization of stable matrices, iteratively improving reconstruction error and ensuring stability.
result Achieves orders-of-magnitude improvement in reconstruction error compared to existing methods.
Improved online prediction with guaranteed coverage.
problem Creating reliable online predictions for arbitrary sequences.
method Online conformal prediction with decaying step sizes.
result Substantially improved practical properties, including close coverage at every time point.
A framework uses preprocessing to improve psychiatric questionnaire predictions while maintaining interpretability.
problem Weak predictive accuracy and limited interpretability of psychiatric questionnaires.
method Two-stage method: stable preprocessing followed by a linear mapping.
result REFINE outperforms other interpretable approaches in psychiatric and non-psychiatric prediction tasks.