A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A model of open economics composed of producers and speculators is investigated by numerical simulations. The capital flows from the environment to the producers and from them to the speculators. The price fluctuations are suppressed by the speculators. When the aggressivity of the speculators grows, there is a transit…
Model analyzes Proof-of-Stake network dynamics and speculative capital effects on token prices.
This letter assesses model risk in credit capital requirements and finds substantial tail risk.
NFT royalties boost creator earnings by sharing risk, reducing info asymmetry, and enabling price discrimination.
We derive formulas for the performance of capital assets in continuous time from an efficient market hypothesis, with no stochastic assumptions and no assumptions about the beliefs or preferences of investors. Our efficient market hypothesis says that a speculator with limited means cannot beat a particular index by a …
Simultaneous reproduction of all financial stylized facts is so difficult that most existing stochastic process-based and agent-based models are unable to achieve the goal. In this study, by extending the decision-making structure of Minority Game, we propose a novel agent-based model called "Speculation Game," for a b…
This study is a detailed analysis of Speculation Game, a minimal agent-based model of financial markets, in which the round-trip trading and the dynamic wealth evolution with variable trading volumes are implemented. Instead of herding behavior, we find that the emergence of volatility clustering can be induced by the …
Empirical evidence suggests that even the most competitive markets are not strictly efficient. Price histories can be used to predict near future returns with a probability better than random chance. Many markets can be considered as {\it favorable games}, in the sense that there is a small probabilistic edge that smar…
Previous analyses of a large ensemble of stock markets have demonstrated that a log-periodic power law (LPPL) behavior of the prices constitutes a qualifying signature of speculative bubbles that often land with a crash. We detect such a LPPL signature in the foreign capital inflow during the bubble on the US markets c…
Study replicates reference-dependent preferences impact on risk-return trade-off in Chinese stock market.
We introduce a stochastic price model where, together with a random component, a moving average of logarithmic prices contributes to the price formation. Our model is tested against financial datasets, showing an extremely good agreement with them. It suggests how to construct trading strategies which imply a capital g…
In this paper we propose a novel index to quantify and measure the flow of information on macro and micro scales. We discuss the implications of this index for knowledge management fields and also as intellectual capital that can thus be utilized by entrepreneurs. We explore different function and human oriented metric…
Defines speculative bubbles in discrete-time models based on discounted stock price losing mass.
We present and study a Minority Game based model of a financial market where adaptive agents -- the speculators -- interact with deterministic agents -- called producers. Speculators trade only if they detect predictable patterns which grant them a positive gain. Indeed the average number of active speculators grows wi…
Agent-based model simulates speculative electronic market with price bubbles.
Accelerating Speculative Diffusions via Block Verification
Optimization methods are used to determine equilibria of investment in cryptocurrencies. The basic assumptions involve existence of a core group (the "wealthy") that fears the loss of substantial assets through government seizure. Speculators constitute another group that tends to introduce volatility and risk for the …
The paper revisits classical competition theory to explain speculative asset price dynamics.
Proving the existence of speculative financial bubbles even a posteriori has proven exceedingly difficult so anticipating a speculative bubble ex ante would at first seem an impossible task. Still as illustrated by the recent turmoil in financial markets initiated by the so called subprime crisis there is clearly an ur…
This paper analyzes speculative decoding, a method to speed up large language model inferences.
Speculative bubbles have been occurring periodically in local or global real estate markets and are considered a potential cause of economic crises. In this context, the detection of explosive behaviors in the financial market and the implementation of early warning diagnosis tests are of critical importance. The recen…
We document and analyze the empirical facts concerning one of the clearest evidence of speculation in financial trading as observed in the postage collection stamp market. We unravel some of the mechanisms of speculative behavior which emphasize the role of fancy and collective behavior. In our conclusion, we propose a…
Adaptive speculative decoding framework for LLMs using bandit algorithms.
Improved diffusion model generation speed with speculative sampling.
The speculation game is an agent-based toy model to investigate the dynamics of the financial market. Our model has achieved the reproduction of 10 of the well-known stylized facts for financial time series. However, there is also a divergence from the behavior of real market. The market price of the model tends to be …
Accelerates TPP sampling with speculative decoding for faster sequence generation.
Cactus improves auto-regressive decoding speed without sacrificing quality.
Estimates crypto risk premia using hidden factors and finds significant integration with traditional markets.
The object of this contribution is to present the ideas behind the thinking of the French economist Pierre-Joseph Proudhon (1809-1865) in relation to the causes and effects of Stock market speculation. It is based upon the works of this author but particularly on his "Manuel du spéculateur à la Bourse" (Stock Market Sp…
Recent increases in basic food prices are severely impacting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the US, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differin…
Proof-of-Stake networks with EIP-1559 exhibit stable token prices and secure network security.
A novel CAB-XDE framework predicts speculative stock prices with high accuracy.
GSI improves efficiency of large language model inference.
The study tests a functional-form restriction on risk exposure dynamics using margin debt data.
Paper evaluates whether AI is a bubble or a productivity revolution.
Investigates Bitcoin market risk, showing volatility and jumps impact future volatility.
The Nasdaq Composite fell another on Friday the 14'th of April 2000 signaling the end of a remarkable speculative high-tech bubble starting in spring 1997. The closing of the Nasdaq Composite at 3321 corresponds to a total loss of over 35% since its all-time high of 5133 on the 10'th of March 2000. Simil…
Agent optimizes risky asset trading times based on Prospect Theory.
We introduce the speculate-correct method to derive error bounds for local classifiers. Using it, we show that k nearest neighbor classifiers, in spite of their famously fractured decision boundaries, have exponential error bounds with O(sqrt((k + ln n) / n)) error bound range for n in-sample examples.
Study tests if deep hedging differs from delta hedging in a GARCH market model.
We present an interacting-agent model of speculative activity explaining bubbles and crashes in stock markets. We describe stock markets through an infinite-range Ising model to formulate the tendency of traders getting influenced by the investment attitude of other traders. Bubbles and crashes are understood and descr…
Study speculative trading using RL with exploratory framework.
Recent droughts in the midwestern United States threaten to cause global catastrophe driven by a speculator amplified food price bubble. Here we show the effect of speculators on food prices using a validated quantitative model that accurately describes historical food prices. During the last six years, high and fluctu…
The paper develops a theory for speculative decoding acceptance criteria.
The Minority Game is a generic model of competing adaptive agents, which is often believed to be a model of financial markets. We discuss to which extend this is a reasonable statement, and present minimal modifications that make this model reproduce stylized facts. The resulting model shows that without speculators, p…
New risk measure uses Fourier analysis of stock prices.
New method reduces diffusion model function evaluations for discrete data.
The aim of this paper is to propose a heterogeneous agent model of stock markets that develop complicated endogenous price fluctuations. We find occurrences of non-stationary chaos, or speculative bubble, are caused by the heterogeneity of traders' strategies. Furthermore, we show that the distributions of returns gene…